In certain instances, absence makes the pocketbook fatter.
Popular instant reaction to Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson’s knee injury (sprained PCL) on December 4 was that a second consecutive December spent on the sidelines (sprained ankle in 2021) proved that the 2019 NFL MVP got burned by playing with fire by not signing a long-term contract extension during the first 22 months he was eligible. A label of “prone to injury” would be used against him in negotiations.
The Ravens then get a second look at Life without Lamar.
The Ravens missed the playoffs a year ago after averaging 20.2 points and going 1-5 in games where Jackson did not play or was injured. The Ravens are 3-1 in games decided without Jackson in 2022 thanks to a better defense, but they are averaging a meager 15.3 points per game (three offensive touchdowns) and are unlikely to advance in the quarterback-driven AFC playoffs until he returns.
Jackson’s best negotiation strategy, while signaling that he is holding out for a fully guaranteed contract like the one the Browns awarded Deshaun Watson (five years, $230 million), has been to assert, “See how difficult it is to win without me.”
There is a traditional fear in front offices about extending dual-threat quarterbacks due to the increased risk of injury associated with running, but the Ravens have built their entire offensive team-building philosophy around Jackson’s unique skill set — emphasizing tight ends and running backs over receivers — so making a change could necessitate seismic personnel changes. Jackson, who earns $23 million for an option year in 2022, has reportedly already rejected a six-year deal that includes $133 million in guaranteed compensation.
The Ravens’ choice to construct their offense around Lamar Jackson’s particular abilities would necessitate significant roster changes if their star quarterback were to leave.
So, what now? Unnamed rival executives and player representatives continue to anticipate that the Ravens will use the franchise tag on Jackson in 2023, preventing him from entering free agency with a one-year contract worth approximately $45 million. The tag is typically a placeholder to continue contract negotiations, but what if the Ravens think that Jackson is unwilling to compromise?
Should the troubles of Russell Wilson of the Broncos, Matt Ryan of the Colts, and Deshaun Watson with their new teams offer pause to executives who would have previously leaped at the chance to acquire a franchise quarterback?
Former NFL franchise president and CEO Joe Banner told Post Sports+, “Absolutely not.” They are not genuinely connected. Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady both participated in the previous two Super Bowls with new teams. I recognize that they are exceptional talents, but Lamar is also fairly exceptional. I anticipate what I’ve witnessed on the field over the past five years: a difference-making player who we must find a way to keep healthy.
Banner said in a recent article for The 33rd Team that the answer to whether Jackson made a mistake by not signing his extension before the season “is a resounding no” and praised his “wise and strategic” approach. Since Jackson became eligible, quarterback contracts have been extended for Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, and Russell Wilson, which has led to an increase in quarterback compensation.
Banner estimated that the best compromise for the Ravens and Jackson — “I know the Ravens want him in Baltimore,” Banner said — is a three- or four-year contract extension that is shorter than the majority of recent quarterback contracts. Why is this a win-win situation?
After Jackson’s injury, the majority of snaps have been taken by Tyler Huntley, and the Ravens’ offense has averaged approximately five less points per game.
Banner stated that the pay cap would increase by a cautious $20 million each year. In four years, the cap will be almost 40 percent greater than it is currently. Consider how much more a quarterback will be paid in four years. It affords him another opportunity to eat the fruit. A longer contract does him no benefit until it is totally guaranteed, as he is playing with unguaranteed funds at the end.
“The Ravens would be more at ease with [a higher percentage] guaranteed if the contract were shorter, simply in case he gets injured or something else happened that isn’t as significant. That should be a risk-mitigating aspect of the transaction.”
If Jackson views the Ravens’ troubles with Tyler Huntley as bolstering his leverage and refuses to bend on his demand for a fully guaranteed contract, he may have to follow in the footsteps of Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott and wager on his consistency.
According to Joel Corry of CBSSports.com, for the Ravens to convince Jackson to eliminate that clause, they would likely have to offer him the highest-paid quarterback, surpassing Rodgers’ average yearly compensation of $50.3 million. Banner argues that the franchise tag would be more advantageous for the Ravens than for Jackson, who would be taking a minor risk by signing another one-year contract. However, Banner asks, “Why take any risk when so much money is at stake?”
According to spotrac.com, playing on two franchise tags with Washington worked brilliantly for Cousins, who leveraged free agency into a first-of-its-kind fully guaranteed three-year contract with the Vikings and now has more than $201 million in career earnings over an 11-year span. Even after sustaining an injury while playing on the franchise tag, Prescott was already on this path before the Cowboys blinked.
Before signing a three-year deal with the Vikings, Kirk Cousins played under the franchise tag twice while with Washington.
AP
The Ravens would then have to choose whether Jackson on a salary-cap-eating tag for 2023 and possibly 2024 is more valuable than the potential draft pick package available for trade.
Longtime scout: “Few, if any, teams grow through the draft better than the Ravens.” “Regardless of where they are picking.”
Up to fifteen teams could change quarterbacks for various reasons throughout the summer. Which team might be most interested in acquiring Jackson?
With impending free agency Daniel Jones, the Giants are close to making the playoffs. The Giants have the cap space ($58 million in 2023 and $215 million in 2024) to boldly pursue a win-now upgrade if Jones prices himself out of New York. It will be difficult to convince fans who have just endured five consecutive losing seasons that it’s time to go back to losing while developing a rookie quarterback. However, general manager Joe Schoen was part of the Buffalo front office that made that decision and produced Josh Allen.
The Falcons have cap space ($69 million in 2023 and $220 million in 2024) and plenty of motivation after missing out on the Watson trade sweepstakes, which led to the trading of Ryan and the absorption of $40.5 million in dead cap. Before Jackson, owner Arthur Blank was very close with Michael Vick, who was the greatest running quarterback in NFL history. Some of his insane highlight runs resembled reruns from twenty years ago.
The Texans (No. 1 and No. 11, if the season ended today), Seahawks (No. 3 and No. 12), and Lions (No. 7 and No. 18) own the most assets in the first three rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft. Moving on from Davis Mills is a no-brainer for the Texans, although the Seahawks and Lions face more difficult decisions about Pro Bowl quarterback Geno Smith and surging quarterback Jared Goff, respectively.
With Michael Vick’s performance as quarterback still a part of Falcons legacy, Atlanta would certainly be intrigued by the prospect of dealing for Lamar Jackson.
The Dolphins must decide whether Tua Tagovailoa is as excellent as he appeared to be as an MVP candidate at midseason. Or was he aided by quick receivers and play-calling that favored quarterbacks? Will his repeated concussions put his long-term career at risk? Jackson comes from the vicinity of Miami.
And never count out the star-studded Raiders, even though the Derek Carr Era is nearly finished.
The majority of the following 10 players are projected to be drafted in the first or second round during the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.
No. 3 TCU versus No. 2 Michigan, Saturday at 4 p.m., ESPN
C Olusegun Oluwatimi, Michigan: The Rimington Award winner for the top center in college football in 2022 has 48 career starts in the middle of the offensive line, garnering lots of expertise with stunts and twists. In the run game, he is usually searching for second-level blocks.
The Athletic’s annual NCAA list of “athletic freaks” was topped by Michigan defensive end Mazi Smith. As a run-stuffing nose tackle, he is immovable, but he sees the greater picture on defense. Smith stated last week that a recent arrest resulting in a felony gun charge was the result of a “mistake” — he delayed submitting a completed application for a concealed-weapon permit that he required for his own protection.
WR Quentin Johnston, TCU: He could be the first receiver selected, particularly if an offense has a big (6’4″, 215 lb.) and muscular tackle-breaker. After a poor start in his first four games, the skyscraper began to win contested receptions and make plays downfield with his straight-line speed. He has the appearance of a traditional No. 1 receiver.
After averaging 18.7 yards per reception during his three years at TCU, Quentin Johnston may be the first receiver selected in the next spring draft.
The Heisman Trophy runner-up, quarterback Max Duggan of TCU, began the season as a potential late-round draft pick and played his way into the middle rounds. As a four-year starter (71 touchdowns to 24 interceptions in his career), Duggan throws the ball away with rapid decisions (71 touchdowns to 24 interceptions in his career). If he performs well against Michigan and possibly another defense before the Senior Bowl, he might skyrocket up the rankings.
No. 4 Ohio State vs No. 1 Georgia, Saturday at 8 p.m., ESPN
C.J. Stroud, quarterback for Ohio State: scout the player, not the helmet. Stroud is a better touch passer than the last two Ohio State quarterbacks selected in the first round (the late Dwayne Haskins and Justin Fields). He possesses a strong arm, flawless mechanics, and goes through progressions prior to exiting the pocket. His career completion percentage was 69.3 percent, with 81 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
OT Johnson Jr., Paris, Ohio State: Johnson was not only forced to switch positions, but also to switch sides, from right guard to left tackle last season. During those two seasons, he allowed only one sack, demonstrating the footwork and strength to handle speed rushes from the perimeter and the interior, respectively. Check out the letter he posted on Players Tribune this week to understand why scouts are so impressed with his character.
DL Jalen Carter, Georgia: At the beginning of the season, it appeared difficult for anyone to surpass Alabama pass rusher Will Anderson as the top defensive prospect. Carter may have, destroying double teams with explosive force. Do not be deceived by his meager numbers (six sacks in 33 games). Georgia operates a robust defensive line rotation, which did not hinder the 2022 No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker, who recorded 9.5 career sacks.
CB Kelee Ringo, Georgia: If you only tune in during this time of year, you may recall Ringo’s game-winning interception against Alabama last year. He has not allowed a touchdown in over 400 coverage snaps since then. He has the length, physique, and recovery speed necessary to play man-to-man coverage in the press. He might be a sensation at the NFL Combine.
Kelee Ringo has not allowed a score in coverage this season for Georgia.
OT Broderick The town of Jones, Georgia: It is difficult to start 13 games at left tackle for an SEC school while allowing no sacks and only five pressures. This is precisely what Jones did, and the most frightening aspect is that he still has potential to improve, given that he is a 315-pound third-year sophomore with exceptional athleticism. When not preventing a pass rush, he created expansive running lanes.
TE Darnell The capital of Georgia: Washington is one of the few tight ends in recent history who exhibit both pass-catching and fundamentally strong in-line blocking skills. Often initiating contact in congested areas, he worked the middle of the field for his single-season highs of 26 receptions, 417 yards, and two scores. At 6 feet 7 inches tall, he might be a red-zone machine.
Final thoughts
J.J. Watt’s revelation that he will retire at the end of the season creates a vacancy at the top of an unpleasant list: Best Active Player to Never Win a Super Bowl. Watt was a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year with the Texans before joining the Cardinals, where he assumed the crown previously held by Larry Fitzgerald, who played his final game in 2020.
JJ Watt is poised to join a list of NFL legends who have retired without a Super Bowl victory.
On our updated list of Best Active Player Never to Win a Super Bowl — based more on career achievement than current ability, and excluding unsigned free agents such as Adrian Peterson — the Cowboys, Cardinals (Patrick Peterson spent the majority of his career there), and Falcons (the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones connection) are recurring themes.
OG Zack Martin, Cowboys; DL Khalil Mack, Chargers; CB Patrick Peterson, Vikings; QB Matt Ryan, Colts; WR Julio Jones, Buccaneers; DT Cam Heyward, Steelers; WR DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals; OT Tyron Smith, Cowboys. 9. DE Cam Jordan, Saints; 10. DE Calais Campbell, Ravens.
The NFL prefers to save a game with guaranteed postseason implications for the Week 18 “Sunday Night Football” broadcast window.
Titans against. Jaguars is virtually a playoff game. The winner of Titans-Jaguars in Week 17 will capture the AFC South championship and the No. 4 seed in the playoffs, while the loser will be eliminated.
The difficulty? According to Sports Business Journal, the Titans and Jaguars placed thirteenth and twenty-second, respectively, in average local television ratings in 2021 and offer the league’s twenty-fifth and twenty-ninth largest television markets, respectively. There is also a possibility that the division champion has a losing record; therefore, is this game likely to attract casual fans?
The Bengals-Ravens matchup has star power and, if certain events transpire this weekend, the potential drama of the winner claiming the AFC North and earning a home playoff game. The loser will just have to play an away playoff game.
A Ravens-Bengals game with the division title on the line could be the ideal way for NBC to conclude the regular season.
Icon Sportswire with the assistance of Getty Images
If either club comes from this weekend with a win-and-in wild-card situation, the Packers and Lions might meet in the NFC Championship Game.
Panthers-Saints or Falcons-Buccaneers — whichever game includes a win-and-in scenario in the NFC South — is a possibility, though the NFL received criticism in 2020 for highlighting tanking when a team with a playoff spot at stake (Commanders) benefited from a team with nothing to play for (Eagles) benching its starting quarterback in the fourth quarter for no reason other than fear of losing.
Davante Adams may soon have a new neighbor… along with a new quarterback.
Every senior NFL player eventually comes to know that the NFL is a business. Adams fared well when he received a five-year, $140 million (with $65 million guaranteed) contract after being moved from the Packers to the Raiders this season.
Adams desired to travel to Las Vegas in order to reconcile with his former Fresno State quarterback, Derek Carr. The fact that he purchased the home next door to Carr demonstrates their close friendship.
Less than one full season later, Carr has been benched and will likely be traded or released in the offseason. The trade gave Adams record-setting money for a receiver but put his future output in the hands of an unproven quarterback, and it basically destroyed the Packers’ season (against the ticking clock of Aaron Rodgers’ career) because they began 4-8 while learning Rodgers’ habits.
“I wouldn’t be here right now if he weren’t here,” Adams said following Carr’s benching, which will spark its own trade rumors.
Any other benefits of a circumstance are temporary, hence the lesson for players is to get paid.
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