Although her road to Congress is not certain, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is the most recognised name on Alaska’s ballot to complete the remaining terms of the late Rep. Don Young.
And it can take a few weeks to find out the winner of the race.
Voters in Alaska have the option to choose numerous candidates on the ballot and rank them according to preference.
The candidate with the fewest first-choice votes is removed, and then voters’ second choices are distributed to the remaining contenders, until a candidate obtains more than 50% of the first-choice vote.
This elimination and redistribution procedure continues until a candidate has a majority of the vote; this may be postponed until the results of absentee votes are in.
10 days after Election Day, on August 26, such ballots may still be submitted.
For Young’s seat, Palin, Republican businessman Nick Begich, and Democrat Mary Peltola are on the ballot.
While Palin won the most votes in the June primary for the seat, in her first campaign since she was the Republican vice presidential nominee in 2008, an Alaska Survey Research poll conducted in July predicted that Palin would lose in the first round of reallocation after simulating the rounds of ranked-choice voting.
In the survey done by Alaska Survey Research, Ivan Moore, a seasoned pollster in the state, predicted that Peltola would get the majority of first-choice votes since Begich and Palin are expected to divide the Republican support.
He said that Begich would probably defeat Peltola following the reallocation of votes from voters who selected Palin as their first choice, but those votes would not necessarily go to Palin if Begich were to be removed first.
“Sarah Palin is still seen as the front-runner despite this information. She is not favoured. Although she is not the favourite to win, she very well may “said Moore.
Former President Donald Trump, who supported Palin at a rally in the state in July, has criticised the ranked-choice voting process for favouring Senator Lisa Murkowski, who is running in her own primary on Tuesday.
Murkowski, according to Trump, “knew she couldn’t win a straight-up election, so she went to this ranked-choice garbage.”
Trump’s backing of Palin is highlighted in a pro-Palin commercial from the Protect Freedom PAC, which refers to her as a “America First Trump conservative.”
During the campaign, Begich and Palin have engaged in aggressive rhetoric against one another.
Begich has been running an advertisement in which she claims Palin left Alaska “to be a star”; the advertisement features pictures of Palin’s performance on the “Masked Singer” programme.
On the day of the Mar-a-Lago raid in August, at a televised rally with Trump, Palin called out “swamp monsters” in Washington, D.C., and dubbed Begich as a “RINO,” or “Republican in name only.”
“I’ve only ever lived in one place. I find it hilarious how one opponent specifically attempts to spread the idea that I’m not even an Alaskan, “Added she.
The five-term state politician Peltola has emphasised her nonpartisan credentials in advertisements before Tuesday.
According to AdImpact, she claims in one of the ads, which has been running since May, “I’m the Democratic woman who can win.”
She claims to be the “sole candidate fighting for abortion rights” in a different version of the advertisement.
According to the Alaska Survey Research survey, Peltola would have defeated Palin in the decisive round of the special election.
The three contestants for the special congressional election are also on the ballot for the Alaska congressional primary.
In the main election in November, which will once again employ ranked-choice voting, the top four vote-getters will advance.
While four candidates will progress to the general election in Alaska’s Senate race, the struggle for the GOP nomination is essentially between the moderate incumbent Murkowski and far-right Trump selection Kelly Tshibaka.
While Tshibaka, a former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration, is running on the premise that Murkowski has politically helped President Biden and the Democrats, Murkowski is a rare swing vote in the Senate and one of seven Republicans who voted to convict Trump over the rioting at the U.S. Capitol on January 6.
Tshibaka has voiced doubt about the 2020 election while campaigning, but she hasn’t been as outspoken as some Trump supporters.
“Even though I am aware that Joe Biden is now in office, I still think there are still some important concerns to be asked about the 2020 presidential race.
To restore public confidence in the accuracy of our election process, such reasonable inquiries deserve valid answers “On August 5, she spoke with the Anchorage Daily News.
While 15 people, including three Democrats, are fighting for the final two spots on the November ballot to challenge Murkowski and Tshibaka, an Alaskan Survey Research survey indicated resounding support for the top two GOP contenders.
Once second- and third-vote choices have been distributed using ranked-choice voting, Murkowski leads Tshibaka by a slim margin of 4.4%, 52.8% to 47.8%.
To put it another way, Murkowski benefits from Alaska’s election laws because they let some Democrats to choose her as their second option, elevating the incumbent over the far-right opponent.
As the incumbent, Murkowski has a significant financial advantage versus Tshibaka, who raised $3.3 million as opposed to $9.4 million for Murkowski in the 2022 cycle.
Similarly, Murkowski has outspent her opponent by almost two to one.