With less than two weeks until the midterm elections, the independent Cook Political Report has modified its rating of the Arizona Senate race from “Democratic leaning” to “toss-up.”
Despite Democrats outspending Republicans in the Copper State, the race was reclassified as a toss-up on Thursday due to recent private polls indicating that Blake Masters (R) and Sen. Mark Kelly (D) are tied.
Also on Thursday, Politico changed its own Arizona election projection from leans Democrat to toss-up.
The Senate election joins the contest for governor in the “toss-up” category, with Republican Kari Lake marginally ahead of Democrat Katie Hobbs in most polls. Former President Trump supports both candidates, Lake and Masters.
Wednesday’s release of a poll by the left-leaning Data for Progress found the candidates tied at 47 percent.
The new rating of “leaning toward” is optimistic for Republicans who seek to retake the Senate. Arizona, along with Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, is now one of five contests deemed to be a toss-up despite Democrats’ modest advantage in retaining control of the upper chamber.
In Colorado, Democratic incumbent Sen. Michael Bennett faces up against Republican Joe O’Day, while in New Hampshire, Democratic incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan faces off against Republican Don Bolduc.
North Carolina, where Republican Rep. Ted Budd meets Democrat Cheri Beasley, and Ohio, where J.D. Vance and Rep. Tim Ryan are vying for the seat, are in the “lean Republican” category.
Jessica Taylor, editor of Cook’s Senate and Governors, remarked that Kelly remains the most probable Democrat to win a toss-up Senate seat.
If Arizona is collapsing, it seems likely that many states have already fallen, including Nevada and maybe Georgia.
Republicans lost interest in the Arizona Senate race over the summer, with the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm cutting spending in August and a super PAC affiliated with Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell withdrawing $9.6 million in September.
McConnell and Trump then implored Peter Thiel, a billionaire venture entrepreneur whose firm Blake had previously served as COO, to provide cash.
According to AdImpact, a political action committee endorsed by Trump poured $1 million into Arizona on Tuesday, a week after MAGA Inc. purchased $725,000 in advertisements.