As its enormous neighbour China tensely anticipates Nancy Pelosi’s potential visit to the island, Taiwan has stepped up its biggest military exercises ever.
In an effort to ease the escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing, President Joe Biden is scheduled to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the phone today.
Beijing has recently issued increasing warnings about the consequences should Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan proceed, which has increased tensions.
According to the South China Morning Post, if the trip proceeds, Taiwan will have to “bear the wrath of Beijing,” which is expected to increase its military pressure on the island while Pelosi is there.
According to Chieh Chung, a senior researcher at the National Policy Foundation think tank, “possible action includes sending multiple warplanes across the median line that separates the Taiwan Strait,” noting that this occurred when former US undersecretary of state Keith Krach visited Taiwan in 2020.
He added that in order to send a message during the visit, the People’s Liberation Army could also send warships over the median line, conduct live-fire drills close to Taiwan’s southern coast, or test-fire missiles close to the Pratas Islands in the South China Sea, which are under Taipei control.
The Taiwanese military outposts on the islands of Quemoy, or Kinmen, and Matsu could also be approached by attack drones.
However, he added, “it is less likely that the PLA would take any action close to Pelosi” because doing so might unintentionally inflame tensions with the US.
China has also threatened that if the visit proceeds, the US will “bear all consequences” and face “forceful measures,” which has sparked discussion about whether Pelosi should include the visit as part of an August trip to the Indo-Pacific that will also take her to Japan, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
Although not unprecedented, the action would be a dramatic demonstration of US support for the island, which claims to be under growing military and economic threats from China.
Taiwan has been conducting its largest-ever military exercises this week to simulate repelling a Chinese amphibious invasion, a threat that has been brought into sharp relief by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
As part of its “one-China” policy, Washington does not recognise Taipei diplomatically and instead recognises Beijing. However, it is required by American law to give the island the means to defend itself, and there has been growing pressure in Congress for more overt support.
Pelosi has not confirmed the rumour, but last week Biden told reporters that the military believed her visit was “not a good idea.”
White House officials have stated that a wide range of topics will be covered during the long-anticipated call between Biden and Xi, including the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, which China has not yet denounced.
The Biden administration believes that leader-to-leader dialogue is the most effective method to reduce tensions over Taiwan, according to a person told on preparations for the call—the sixth between the leaders of the two nations.
Despite China’s warnings and the Pentagon’s concerns, the White House maintained on Wednesday that Pelosi’s decision to visit Taiwan was her own.
The US presidency has minimal control over congressional travel as a co-equal arm of government.
As he seeks an unprecedented third term in office at a meeting of China’s ruling Communist Party, which is anticipated in October or November, some observers theorise that Xi has a stake in avoiding a tense confrontation with the United States.
Beijing, however, still views Taiwan as a part of its territory and has not abandoned using force to seize control of the island.
It is believed that Xi sees the major objective of any potential third term as militarily reunifying the mainland with Taiwan.
Since the last time a Speaker of the House visited Taiwan, as Newt Gingritch did in 1997, China has become more strong both militarily and economically.
Some observers fear that such a visit during tense times could ignite a conflict across the Taiwan Strait, a waterway that separates China and Taiwan and is 100 miles (160 km) wide.
The relationship is so toxic right now. Actually, mutual mistrust is at an all-time high.
According to Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, “I think people don’t grasp how hazardous this particular time is.
She advised Biden and Xi to concentrate their phone call on de-escalation, including potential safeguards against accidents.
According to Kirby, the administration has spoken with Pelosi’s office to ensure that she has “all the context” she needs to decide how to proceed with her travel plans.
Despite rumours of a potential travel by Pelosi, which the speaker has not confirmed, the White House has emphasised that its “one-China” policy has not altered.
China hasn’t given many hints about the precise actions it would take in the event that Pelosi visits Taiwan.
Pelosi has long been a critic of China, especially with regard to human rights issues.
Playing up the Taiwan issue could help Xi divert attention away from China’s sluggish economy, according to Martin Chorzempa, a senior research fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, but “any reaction strong enough to trigger US sanctions would create massive damage to China and the world economy,” he added.
In essence, US officials see the exchange as another opportunity to manage competition between the world’s two largest economies.
Tensions over democratically governed Taiwan, which Xi has vowed to reunite with the mainland, by force if necessary, are clouding the relations between the two countries, which are the world’s two largest economies.
Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, White House national security spokesman John Kirby said, “This is about keeping the lines of communication open with the president of China, one of the most consequential bilateral relationships that we have, not just in that region, but around the world, because it touches so much.”
According to the person briefed, Biden also wants to talk about issues related to the environment and economic competition, as well as the idea of capping the price of Russian oil as retaliation for Moscow’s war in Ukraine, which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen brought up with Chinese counterparts earlier in July.
Although US officials have stated that a decision was not anticipated prior to the call, the Biden administration has been contemplating whether to waive some tariffs on Chinese goods as a strategy to reduce the skyrocketing inflation.
The U.S. government thinks that the red line has not been broken since Biden’s previous conversation with Xi in March, when he threatened “consequences” if Beijing provided material support for Russia’s war.
When questioned about the call during a routine press conference in Beijing on Thursday, a representative of the Chinese foreign ministry declined to confirm its timing or provide any other information.
The heads of state of China and the US keep in touch via a variety of channels, according to Zhao Lijian, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry.
China would promptly make information regarding this announcement, he said.
Following a port visit in Singapore, a US aircraft carrier and its strike group have made their way back to the South China Sea.
The action is being taken as hostilities surrounding Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan continue.
While confirming the deployment of the USS Ronald Reagan to the important commerce route, representatives from the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet declined to comment when asked about potential conflicts related to Pelosi’s trip.
Following a fruitful port visit to Singapore, the USS Ronald Reagan and her strike group are currently operating in the South China Sea, according to Commander Hayley Sims.
In support of a free and open Indo-Pacific, Sims continued, the Reagan “is continuing normal, scheduled operations as part of her routine patrol.”
Despite having met with Pelosi and providing her with a security assessment, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated on Wednesday that any statements regarding a potential travel to Taiwan would need to come from her office.
Prior to arriving in Singapore for a five-day rest stop at the weekend, the Reagan strike group had been conducting operations in the South China Sea earlier in the month.
Based on recent actions as well as the most recent tensions, security expert Ian Storey, who is based in Singapore, said he would anticipate Chinese vessels to follow the strike group.
According to Storey of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, “such contacts are typically safe and professional, but there’s always a possibility they could grow too close and create a confrontation.”
On Tuesday, US officials accused China of upping its “provocations” against rival claimants in the South China Sea and warned that due to its “aggressive and irresponsible behaviour,” a significant incident or accident was only a matter of time.
In the meantime, during a rare high-level visit, a delegation of Japanese lawmakers, including two former defence ministers, met with Taiwan’s president to talk about regional security.
Shigeru Ishiba, a former defence minister and senator, led the mission, which stated that its goals were to achieve a defence pact with Taiwan, prepare for any potential regional crisis, and prevent conflict from escalating.
In prepared remarks delivered at the Presidential Office, he stated, “We need to plan forward about what kinds of crises could develop, what kinds of regulations and accords we should prepare, and what kinds of armaments we could deploy.”
“We need to collaborate to get to a decision on this before anything that could happen,” was said.
In order to prevent conflict in the Indo-Pacific, Mr. Ishiba pointed out that Japan and the US are closely collaborating. He claimed that the defence allies ‘had no choice’ but to get ready.
Growing assertiveness from China, whose authoritarian ruling Communist Party views democratic, self-governing Taiwan as part of its own territory that may be occupied by force if necessary, has increased tensions in the area.
President Tsai Ing-wen greeted the delegation of Japanese lawmakers, who will also meet with Su Tseng-chang, head of the Executive Yuan, and officials from Taiwan’s defence ministry.
“Safeguarding Taiwan involves more than just preserving sovereignty. Additionally, Taiwan is a very important initial line of defence for the first island chain in terms of strategic safety, according to Ms. Tsai.
To maintain the peace and stability of the Indo-Pacific region, “We will continue to enhance our cooperation with Japan and other democratic countries.”
Yasukazu Hamada, Akihisa Nakashima, and Takayuki Shimizu, three additional Japanese lawmakers who are all members of a cross-party national security group and many of whom have worked in the defence establishment, accompanied Mr. Ishiba.
Japan, according to Mr. Ishiba, must support regional economic growth, security, and rule of law.
It can’t only be words coming out of one’s lips or thoughts at the level of thought. Japan must assume real obligations in the Asia-Pacific region, he added.