According to CBS News’ predictions, Rep. Liz Cheney lost to Harriet Hageman in the Republican primary for Wyoming’s at-large House seat on Tuesday night. Cheney, though, asserted that despite the anticipated defeat, she had just just begun.
Cheney said CBS News’ Robert Costa shortly after casting her ballot in Jackson, Wyoming that Tuesday’s primary is “the start of a conflict that will undoubtedly last a while. And as a nation, we are now experiencing a situation in which our democracy is really under siege and in danger.”
She added, “I genuinely appreciate and acknowledge there’s nothing more important than the protection of our Constitution and feel very happy of all the work I’ve done along with the people of Wyoming over the previous six years.
Hageman has the support of former President Donald Trump, who has been actively engaged in the campaign to remove Cheney since she voted to remove him after the assault on the U.S. Capitol on January 6.
Her public criticism of Trump and his friends after the assault, as well as her head of the House select committee on January 6, have only served to inflame the resentment.
At a rally in Casper, Wyoming, in May, Trump declared: “Liz Cheney has helped the extreme Democrat party weaponize the national security state and law enforcement against MAGA and MAGA supporters, who are hard-working and great people.”
“The extreme left’s all-out fight on free speech has been justified by the false narrative Liz Cheney is promoting. persecution of political prisoners from January 6.”
Hageman, a Wyoming native and experienced lawyer, takes pleasure in her work challenging environmental rules.
Hageman has already voiced opposition to Trump and backed Texas Senator Ted Cruz in the 2016 Republican presidential race. She finished third in the GOP primary for governor in 2018 and has endorsed and been friends with Cheney in the past. She does, however, believe that Cheney “betrayed Wyoming” by supporting impeachment.
Despite her 2016 anti-Trump remarks, Hageman received Trump’s support on September 9, 2021.
The Wyoming Republican Party has censured and disavowed Cheney as a show of opposition as a result of his involvement in the race. On a national level, the Republican National Committee took similar measures against Cheney and Illinois Representative Adam Kinzinger, who joined the House committee on January 6 and also voted to impeach President Trump.
Seven House Republicans who supported Trump’s impeachment won’t be re-elected to office. Three candidates lost their primaries: Tom Rice of South Carolina, Peter Meijer of Michigan, and Jamie Herrera-Beutler of Washington. Four have retired: Kinzinger, Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio, John Katko of New York, and Fred Upton of Michigan.
Dan Newhouse of Washington and David Valadao of California both made it to the main election in November.
Cheney’s dislike from the former president also turned the House Republican leadership and grassroots Republicans against her. Kevin McCarthy, the House Minority Leader, was a key figure in the campaign to remove Cheney as the head of the House GOP.
The House Republican conference typically backs incumbents, but it made the unprecedented decision to reject Cheney’s support and back Hageman instead. This spring, it even hosted a fundraiser for her at which more than 50 House Republicans participated.
Longtime Wyoming GOP organiser April Poley, who supported state senator Anthony Bouchard during the primary process, said she wished Trump had “kept his nose out of Wyoming’s campaign.”
“He didn’t need to enter the room and direct everyone’s vote. To the point that you feel strangely betrayed by him if you don’t vote the way he instructs you to, “explained Poley.
Hageman recognised Trump and McCarthy’s support, but in her last campaign commercial, she emphasised that neither Cheney nor Trump are the only candidates.
“Our current congressman is not Wyoming-native and does not speak for us. And the reason I’m here is so that I can answer to you about the matters that are important to you,” at a Republican Women event in Natrona County on August 3, Hageman remarked. She said that she thought the 2020 election was “rigged” at the same occasion.
48.6% of prospective GOP primary voters surveyed by the Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center at the University of Wyoming said they had “strong proof” of significant voting fraud in the 2020 election.
Trump and Cheney both earned somewhat less than 70% of the vote in 2020. There have been many unsuccessful legal challenges to the 2020 election results, and there is no solid proof that massive fraud affected the outcome.
Cheney hasn’t backed down from her position on the committee or her campaign-ad blitz against Trump’s unfounded allegations that the 2020 election was rigged. She centred one of her ads on the fact that her main rivals had expressed scepticism about the validity of the 2020 presidential election during a discussion.
In one, her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, who served the state in Congress for ten years, spoke straight to the camera and referred to Trump as a “danger” to the nation.
Using violence and deceit, he said, Trump “tried to steal the previous election to retain himself in power after the people rejected him.”
Liz Cheney made it obvious in her final remarks that her attention is still firmly fixed on Trump: “The pernicious myth that the 2020 presidential election was rigged.
It preys on those who cherish their nation. Donald Trump has provided a channel for people to be manipulated into giving up their ideals, giving up their freedom, justifying violence, and disobeying the law and court decisions.”
“She hasn’t changed at all, in my opinion. I believe that her reputation has altered “Poley said that she has never supported Cheney in elections.
With almost $15.1 million collected this cycle compared to Hageman’s $4.1 million, Cheney has maintained the fundraising edge against Hageman.
However, investment from pro-Hageman organisations like the Wyoming Values PAC and Club for Growth Action has allowed her to match Cheney’s advertising expenditures, according to AdImpact statistics.
Even though internal and external surveys showed Hageman leading Cheney by about 30 points, some believe the outcome may be closer than anticipated.
Possibly an understatement, but I wouldn’t be shocked if she received 30% of the vote, according to Poley.
When there were nine other Republicans running for the seat in the 2016 primary, Cheney received close to 40% of the vote. This race has five more candidates, although Cheney and Hageman have been the only ones to regularly poll over double digits.
Professor Andrew Garner of the University of Wyoming issued a warning that the state’s polls indicate an uncertain race, in part because of the Wyoming legislation that permits voters to change their party affiliation on the day of a primary election.
Garner and others claim that while the state law’s peculiarity hasn’t significantly affected Wyoming primary outcomes in the past, Trump and other Wyoming Republicans tried and failed to get it changed.
“It’s already tough to correctly poll statewide elections. Primary elections are considerably more challenging in tiny states, “Added Garner. “Much will depend on how many Democrats switch their allegiance to Cheney.
Hageman is expected to win handily if few people attend. The margins would be tighter if more Democrats than anticipated showed up.”
Democrats and other registered non-Republican voters have the option to switch parties and support Cheney, according to her campaign and other groups.
And it seems to be effective. According to Wyoming voter registration data between January and August, there have been 11,495 more Republicans registered than Democrats, while there have been nearly 6,000 less Democrats registered. According to the Casper-Star Tribune, this is changing at a much faster rate than prior midterm elections.
While the overall number of registered voters climbed by nearly 4,000, the number of voters who were classified as “unaffiliated” declined by roughly 1,575.
After receiving many death threats, Cheney has had to travel with protection and has held a number of small, private campaign events at home parties in the last weeks of the election.
Supporter of Cheney Joseph McGinley of the Natronal County Republican Committee said that at a July event she conducted in Casper, the congresswoman hardly mentioned Trump or the Jan. 6 committee.
“When pressed, she will discuss Trump. And although she will discuss the committee, she does not obliterate it in her address “said McGinley.
Although McGinley said he doesn’t trust the polls that show Hageman leading by a significant margin and that he thinks the state’s more populous and moderate areas will support Cheney, he acknowledged the three-term congresswoman faces a challenging race.
“Trump has endorsed her opponent, and she is receiving a lot of backing from the extreme elements in our state. [Hageman] is running a strong campaign, “said he. But again, this election is distinct from previous ones in terms of the number of crossover votes.
Cheney hasn’t ruled out running for president in 2024 despite her campaign against the former president raising her national profile. Cheney only received 2% of the vote in a recent Morning Consult poll on the 2024 primary, despite the fact that some anti-Trump Republicans have acknowledged there is an open path for a Republican like Cheney.
Garner said, “I believe that it is simply too early to predict how the 2024 primary will go. “That may seem like a lame excuse, but consider how drastically the political landscape has altered in the last two months alone. In two years’ time? Nobody can predict how drastically different it may be.”