All available evidence suggests that Wyoming Republican Representative Liz Cheney will lose her primary and her congressional seat on Tuesday. Ex-President Donald Trump’s nominee, trial attorney Harriet Hageman, is expected to defeat her, according to polls and political science academics who have been monitoring this campaign.
Since she voted to impeach him following the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol, Trump has been deeply engaged in the battle against Cheney. Since the assault, her public censure of Trump and his friends, as well as her leadership position on the House select committee convened on January 6, have only served to exacerbate this enmity.
Trump said in May at a rally in Casper, Wyoming, “Liz Cheney has helped the extreme Democrat party weaponize the national security state and law enforcement against MAGA and MAGA followers, who are hardworking and great people.” “Liz Cheney’s false story has been the justification for the extreme left’s all-out assault on free expression. The persecution of the political detainees of January 6.”
Hageman is a native of Wyoming and an experienced attorney who takes satisfaction in her fights against environmental restrictions.
In the past, Hageman has made anti-Trump remarks and backed Ted Cruz in the 2016 Republican presidential primaries. She finished third in the 2018 Republican primary for governor, and she had previously backed Cheney and referred to her as a friend. She believes that Cheney “betrayed Wyoming” by voting for impeachment.
The anti-Trump statements made by Hageman in 2016 did not prevent her from receiving Trump’s support on September 9, 2021.
The Wyoming Republican Party has taken a symbolic measure of censure and disavowal against Cheney in response to his participation in the primaries. Nationally, the Republican National Committee took similar measures against Cheney and Illinois Representative Adam Kinzinger, who voted to impeach Trump and joined the House committee on January 6.
Seven of the Republicans in the House who voted for Trump’s impeachment will not be returning. Kinzinger, Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio, John Katko of New York, and Fred Upton of Michigan have resigned, while Tom Rice of South Carolina, Peter Meijer of Michigan, and Jamie Herrera-Beutler of Washington have lost their primaries.
California’s David Valadao and Washington’s Dan Newhouse advanced to the general election in November.
In addition to turning House Republican leadership and rank-and-file House Republicans against her, the previous president’s animosity against Cheney also turned the former president’s hostility for Cheney against her. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who assisted in leading the drive to remove Cheney from her position in the House Republican leadership. The House Republican Conference, which often supports incumbents, made the extraordinary move of not endorsing Cheney, instead endorsing Hageman and even holding a spring fundraiser for her with over 50 House Republicans.
April Poley, a longtime Wyoming Republican organizer who helped with another primary contender, state Sen. Anthony Bouchard, wishes Trump had “kept his nose out of Wyoming’s contest.”
“We did not need his presence to instruct everyone on how to vote. To the point where, if you don’t vote the way he suggests, you feel disloyal to him “Poley stated.
While Hageman has recognized the backing of Trump and McCarthy, her last campaign commercial argues that the contest is not only about them or Cheney.
“Our current congressman is not a Wyoming native nor does he reflect our interests. And I am here because I want to be responsible to you for addressing your most pressing concerns “Hageman said on August 3 at a Natrona County Republican Women gathering. She said at the same occasion that the 2020 election will be “rigged.”
According to a survey conducted by the Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center at the University of Wyoming, 48.6% of prospective Republican primary voters think substantial voting fraud occurred in the 2020 election.
Both Cheney and Trump earned well about 70% of the vote in 2020. Multiple lawsuits disputing the results of the 2020 election have been dismissed by the courts, and there is no convincing proof of significant election fraud.
In her campaign advertisements, Cheney has not shied away from her involvement on the committee or her battle against Trump’s unfounded assertions that the 2020 election was stolen. In one ad, she highlighted the fact that her primary opponents expressed skepticism regarding the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election during a debate.
In another, her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, who represented the state for ten years in Congress, spoke directly to the camera and called Trump a “threat” to the nation. He said that Trump “attempted to steal the previous election using falsehoods and violence in order to remain in power after being rejected by the people.”
Liz Cheney made it plain in her concluding statement that her only emphasis remains on Trump: “Deceptive is the claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen. It preys on people who are patriotic. Donald Trump provided a path for manipulating Americans to surrender their ideals, forfeit their rights, justify murder, and disregard the decisions of our courts and the rule of law.”
“I believe she has never changed. I believe the impression of her has shifted “Poley also said that she has never voted for Cheney.
Cheney has raised nearly $15.1 million more than Hageman during this election cycle, compared to Hageman’s $4 million. According to AdImpact statistics, however, pro-Hageman organizations such as the Wyoming Values PAC and Club for Growth Action have kept pace with Cheney’s advertising expenditure.
Despite the fact that independent and internal surveys indicate that Hageman has a nearly 30-point advantage against Cheney, some believe the outcome might be closer than anticipated.
Poley said, “I wouldn’t be astonished if she received 30 percent of the vote; maybe that’s an understatement, but I wouldn’t be surprised either.”
Cheney received over 40% of the vote in the Republican primary for the seat in 2016, when there were nine other candidates. In this race, there are five other candidates, but Cheney and Hageman are the only ones who have regularly polled over 10%.
Andrew Garner, a professor at the University of Wyoming, cautioned that the state’s polls indicate an unpredictable race, in part due to the Wyoming law that permits voters to switch parties on the day of a primary election.
According to Garner and others, this peculiarity in Wyoming law has not had a significant impact on the state’s primary results in the past, but Trump and other Wyoming Republicans unsuccessfully attempted to change it.
“Polling statewide elections is already a difficult endeavor. Primary elections in small states are especially challenging “Garner said. “A great deal hinges on the number of Democrats who vote for Cheney. If few people attend, Hageman will likely win by a large margin. If more Democrats come up than anticipated, the margins will narrow.”
Cheney’s campaign and other groups have suggested to Democrats and other non-Republican registered voters that they may vote for her by switching parties.
And it seems to be effective. According to Wyoming voter registration data between January and August, there has been a gain of 11,495 registered Republicans and a loss of around 6,000 registered Democrats. According to the Casper-Star Tribune, this is a much faster rate of change than that of previous midterm elections.
The number of “unaffiliated” voters declined by around 1,575, while the overall number of registered voters climbed by almost 4,000.
Cheney has been hosting a number of small, private campaign events at home parties in the last weeks of the election, despite requiring security due to several death threats.
Joseph McGinley, the Natrona County Republican Committeeman and a Cheney supporter, said that the congresswoman did not mention Trump or the January 6 committee at a July event in Casper.
“If questioned, she will discuss Trump. She will also mention the committee, but she does not bury it in her speech “McGinley stated.
McGinley said that he does not trust the polls that show Hageman ahead by a large margin, and that he expects the state’s more populous and moderate regions would vote for Cheney, although he conceded that it will be a difficult campaign for the three-term congresswoman.
“Trump has backed her opponent, and [she] is receiving substantial support from radicals in our state. Here, [Hageman] has a strong campaign “he stated. “However, based on the amount of crossover votes, this election is distinct from previous ones.”
Cheney, whose national reputation has increased as a result of her campaign against the former president, has not ruled out running for president in 2024. While several anti-Trump Republicans have admitted that there is an open path for a Republican like Cheney in 2024, a recent Morning Consult primary survey gave her barely 2% support.
“I believe it is much too early to predict how the 2024 primary will unfold,” Garner added. “This may seem like a cop-out, but consider how drastically the political climate has altered in the previous two months. In two years’ time? It might be radically different in ways nobody can predict.”