This season, the NFL coach most responsible for the drop in scoring has not called a single play.
Two years after the league established a new high-water mark with an average of 49.6 points per game, the average has fallen to 44. The discontinuation of the annual explosive explosion has been attributed to an unprecedented number of starting quarterbacks switching teams in conjunction with the problems of certain all-time greats and the widespread adoption of the Vic Fangio-style defense, according to a survey of NFL insiders.
Since Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Matt Ryan have already sufficiently examined, Post Sports+ sought a crash course on the defense that is about to cause a five-year scoring slump. After averaging 43.4 points in 2017, teams scored an average of 46.7, 45.6, 49.6 and 46 in the subsequent four seasons.
Fangio is currently taking a gap year after being fired as Broncos head coach in January, but the five-time NFL defensive coordinator (of the Panthers, Colts, Texans, 49ers, and Bears, dating back to 1995) will get a sixth job calling plays unless he is holding out for another opportunity to be the head coach. He has direct students directing the Chargers’ and Vikings’ defenses, and his tree extends to the Packers and Bears. Sources suggest that perhaps 10 to 15 teams utilize his methods in total.
Former offensive-minded head coach: “I believe the style of defense in all situations made it the most difficult to score and move the ball.”
A matchup zone is the simplest method for defining the system. The signature is two deep safeties playing either Cover 4 (four defensive backs each responsible for one-quarter of the back end) or Cover 6 (two defensive backs each responsible for one-half of the back end) (field is split in half and the weak side and strong side of a defense run different zones disguised to look the same). The objective is to force long drives by reducing the number of defenders in the box to encourage running plays and short completions.
Even though Vic Fangio is not on an NFL sideline this season, at least one-third of NFL teams employ his defensive concepts.
“Split-safety coverage immediately communicates to an offensive coach, ‘You are no longer permitted to throw the ball over our heads,’” said Matt Bowen, a former NFL safety turned ESPN video analyst. “It’s really difficult for all 11 offensive players to go 12 plays without making a mistake, such as a penalty that puts you behind the sticks and makes it first-and-20. You are compelling them to take the available throws.
“However, quarterbacks and play-callers become restless. You instruct your defensive players, “Get to your landmark drops, don’t allow them to attack the seams or corners, and don’t let them send the ball over the top.” When offensive coordinators and quarterbacks become frustrated, they force throws, which is your opportunity to capitalize.
NFL defenses need a response to the quick-strike speed like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, and others in an era where 40-yard dash times are used to determine draft position. In addition, they must circumvent the rising ambiguity of roughing the passer and defensive pass interference penalties.
Bowen stated, “Quarterbacks cannot be intimidated as they once were, and man coverage down the field cannot be as aggressive as it once was.” “You cannot put your pads on the receivers unless you hit the strike zone with a beautiful shot. What is the countermeasure to all these restrictions on defensive players that should lead to an increase in scoring? To inform these elite quarterbacks, “You will no longer throw the ball vertically down the field.” We are going to make you earn every penny.’”
There is a great deal of pre-snap and post-snap mobility in the Fangio defense, although blitzes are uncommon, especially anything above a five-rusher pressure.
The coach stated, “There are only two ways to make big plays against a Quarters coverage: throw an over route or hit them with a post.” “If you are willing to run the ball, they only want to control it, therefore no explosive runs.” They will give you just enough so that it is not a problem.”
It may resemble the “bend but don’t break” defense. However, defensive players and coaches dislike this word because to its passive tone.
“Ideally, you want to influence the flow of the game from a defensive standpoint, particularly from the secondary,” said Bowen. “The opposition is that they do not want to be regarded as bendable but not breakable. In this approach, though, you may still play a physical defense and influence the pace of the game. I’m driving the ball from above. Currently, across the entire league, it may be seen on film.
Every variation of Fangio’s defense includes its own modifications. Some zone defenses have linebackers or defensive ends lurking in the underbrush. Some defenses play man-to-man underneath until a receiver enters the deep inside zone. Some allow cornerbacks to jump routes when safety aid is available. Some backside receivers are placed in man-to-man coverage, while the backside safety is permitted to cut crossing routes.
“I teach my [high school] defensive backs that a hitch route will not defeat us. Nobody calls twelve hitch routes consecutively. We will play alignment and assignment football and force them to throw the ball underneath, while driving downhill and making tackles,” Bowen stated. Find me a wide receiver who desires to routinely catch the ball in the center of the field while taking hits. They will return to the quarterback and say, “Let’s attempt some long shots.”
When the defense shifts to one-high safety, allowing a deep shot, only the finest quarterbacks will recognize the change in time. Perhaps not even them.
The Fangio secondary shell was cited for the Chiefs’ atypical slowdown in the middle of the 2021 season, during which Patrick Mahomes played five games without throwing a touchdown pass.
The coach stated, “To the uneducated eye it still appears to be Quarters.” The other safety is normally positioned where he would be in Quarters, but he is actually playing in the middle of the field since he is reading the quarterback’s eyes.
It is typical for linebackers to have the speed and range to pursue receivers into the secondary or stick with running backs on wheel routes. Using stunts and twists to generate a pass rush from the 3-4 defensive front is also effective.
Fangio’s defenses with the Bears (Khalil Mack and Leonard Floyd on the edges, Eddie Jackson deep) and Broncos (Von Miller and Bradley Chubb on the edges, Justin Simmons deep) were some of his best.
“Sometimes they’ll give up a lot of yards, but if they prevent you from scoring, that’s what they want,” the coach remarked. “It depends on playing solid red-zone defense: Make it a 3-point shot instead of a 7-pointer.”
And if this year is any indicator, the plan has been successful.
Who is the top quarterback in the 2023 NFL Draft?
Both Kentucky’s Will Levis and Florida’s Anthony Richardson opted out of joining teammates in bowl games because they had a lot to lose to potential injury and little to gain. As a result, the debate over the order of the four consensus first-round quarterbacks for the 2023 draft can now rage in earnest. Bryce Young of Alabama could follow suit. C.J. Stroud is the only Ohio State player guaranteed to play against Georgia in the College Football Playoff semifinals.
The Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud may be the only one of the expected top-four quarterbacks in the NFL Draft to participate in a bowl game next season.
Therefore, it is unclear which college quarterback will hear his name called first in the spring of 2019.
When a member of an NFL team initially informed me that Levis may surpass preseason favorites Young and Stroud by April, I did not believe them. However, that wasn’t a joke.
In October, a source stated, “Some team is likely to fall in love with him as a prototype because of his size (6-foot-3, 232 pounds) and arm power.”
Indeed, Levis stock has generated the most interest over the past two months. But ESPN football analyst Harry Douglas, a former NFL receiver who interned with the Atlanta Falcons last year through the Bill Walsh Diversity Coaching Fellowship, spends a great deal of time observing the SEC and favors Young.
I will never deviate from the eye test, Douglas told Post Sports+. “I sense something in Bryce Young that cannot be coached. He differs from the typical dual-threat quarterback. He is not evading pressure to gain first downs by running. He continues to look downfield to finish a pass to his target.
Similar to how Baker Mayfield (2018) and Kyler Murray (2019) had to overcome worries about their heights to reach the No. 1 overall choice, the durability of 6-foot, 194-pound Young’s thin frame will be scrutinized.
Due to his composed attitude in the pocket, Alabama quarterback Bryce Young has been an early draft target despite his ability to scramble out of trouble.
“I understand the measures and everything else, but can this guy help me after everything has gone to sh—?” Douglas stated. “My eyes tell me that Bryce Young, at worst, should be the second quarterback selected — he and C.J. Stroud, first or second is understandable. I’m not saying I dislike Levis, but the limitations of the Kentucky offense (getting the ball out quickly so you don’t have to make so many tight-window throws) make me want to see more.
“Here’s the thing: I’m afraid a situation similar to 2021, when I believed Justin Fields should have been the second quarterback selected, will occur again” (instead of the fourth). Someone takes Will Levis, and then someone else acquires Bryce Young, who is terrific.”
Final thoughts
Do not underestimate the Jaguars. According to a proverb, the best teams in December and January are those that have withstood the fight of attrition the best.
According to mangameslost.com, the Jaguars have lost a total of 54 games due to injuries and health protocols through Week 14. This puts the Jaguars by far the healthiest team in the NFL, ahead of the Chiefs (88) and Packers (99). All other teams have lost at least 100 games due to the sport’s toll.
The Jaguars (5-8) must gain one game on the AFC South-leading Titans (7-6) over the next three weeks to set up a winner-take-all Week 18 matchup in which the underdog might steal a playoff berth with a victory. The tiebreaker would advantage them because they swept the home-and-home series during the regular season. The Jaguars have the No. 16 toughest remaining schedule (.490 opponents’ winning percentage), while the Titans have the No. 22 toughest remaining slate (.452).
This week, I created a little Twitter argument when I stated that I know Giants fans younger than 40 who view the Packers as a greater competitor than the Commanders.
More significant matchups between Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning have occurred in the last decade than anything the Giants have accomplished against Washington.
Put the Eagles and Cowboys in the top two places in either order based on the combination of amount and quality of games. What then?
Three times in the playoffs over the past 15 years, the Giants defeated the Packers at Lambeau Field en way to earning their previous two championships. In the 2016 playoffs, the Packers exacted vengeance, matching eye-for-eye the 2011 Eli Manning-Hakeem Nicks touchdown on a Hail Mary play just before halftime with an Aaron Rodgers-Randall Cobb touchdown on a Hail Mary play.
What has Giants-Washington produced since the turn of the millennium? A few memorable moments and two seasons in which both clubs qualified for the NFC playoffs, but no instant classics.
The Giants stopped Washington on four consecutive plays from the 1-yard line in the closing minute to avoid a doomsday 0-3 start and began their championship-winning turnaround in 2007. In Week 13 of the 2012 season, Washington scored a fluky touchdown in a one-point victory to draw within a game of the Giants in its pursuit of first place. Even though they had nothing to gain from a victory, the Giants eliminated the Redskins from playoff contention by winning the 2016 season finale. Yawn.
Some of the best NFL rivalries of each decade — Steelers-Raiders in the 1970s, Giants-49ers in the 1980s, 49ers-Cowboys in the 1990s, Colts-Patriots in the 2000s, and Bills-Chiefs in the 2010s — were created by quality high-stakes games, not by an incorrect geographical grouping mandating two head-to-head games per year.
Prior to last season, the American League and National League of Major League Baseball had separate regulations regarding pitchers batting. In the AFC and NFC of the NFL, the rules are identical, but team-building is not. At least that appears to be the case. Possibly a mere coincidence, but if the playoffs ended today…
AFC playoff contenders are infatuated with first-round quarterbacks such as the Bengals’ Joe Burrow.
When healthy, the starting quarterback for each of the seven AFC teams is a former first-round draft pick: Josh Allen (Bills), Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Ryan Tannehill (Titans), Joe Burrow (Bengals), Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins), and Mac Jones (Patriots). Another player, Justin Herbert (Chargers), is at the door. With the exception of Tannehill, all seven of these players remain with their original teams.
When healthy, Jalen Hurts (Eagles), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Tom Brady (Buccaneers), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), and Taylor Heinicke are the starting quarterbacks for five (but more like six) of the seven NFC teams: Jalen Hurts (Eagles), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), and Taylor Heinicke (Commanders). Jimmy Garoppolo, who replaced the injured former first-round pick Trey Lance early in the season, has been credited with seven of the team’s nine victories. The Seahawks’ Geno Smith is banging on the door.
Daniel Jones is the sole indisputable outlier in the NFC (Giants).
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