On the path to success? How deft Ukrainian counterattacks have trapped down Russian soldiers in the south and ripped through their frontline in the north, leaving Putin’s invasion vulnerable to collapse.
On August 29, Ukraine launched a counterattack in southern Kherson after announcing its intention to seize the city.
This resulted in the deployment of Russian forces to defend the region, who are currently trapped west of the Dnieper River.
Yesterday, Ukraine began a second covert counterattack in Kharkiv, hundreds of miles to the north.
Rapid advancement threatens Russian supply lines in Donbas, which could lead to the collapse of the eastern frontline.
It is a result that few dared to anticipate. But ten days after Ukraine’s generals announced the beginning of their first major counterattack against Russian soldiers, the path to success is becoming increasingly evident.
Ukraine’s leaders employed deft strategies to lure Russian soldiers into the country’s south before pinning them down with a counterattack around the city of Kherson.
As a result of HIMARS strikes that destroyed the city’s key bridges, some of Putin’s finest soldiers are now essentially stuck in the city, harassed by Ukrainian artillery and unable to cross the Dnieper River without difficulty.
Yesterday, this allowed Ukraine to launch a second, surprise counterattack to the east of Kharkiv, with a ‘fist’ of tanks and soldiers punching through the weakened defenses.
These soldiers are currently advancing fast, endangering major supply routes into Donbas.
Dr. Mike Martin, a former British army officer who is now a professor at King’s College, stated yesterday on Twitter, “If [Ukraine] pulls that off, it’s serious rout time.”
Putin is once again confronted with an ugly defeat. If his forces are forced to retreat from Kherson and cease their offensive in Donbas, it will be difficult for Putin to portray the invasion as a success.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is celebrating its achievements. According to a commander who spoke out today, troops have now recaptured a total of 270 square miles of territory on both fronts, which is a significant accomplishment despite the fact that victory is still a long way off.
Here, MailOnline investigates how Ukraine drove the war to this crucial juncture…
Ukraine is launching two major offensives, the first in the south of the country, near Kherson, where an estimated 30,000 Russian soldiers are believed to be trapped. Yesterday, the second assault was conducted east of Kharkiv and breached the poorly maintained Russian frontline.
How about victory? A Ukrainian soldier leaps with delight and waves to his buddies as they ride on the top of armored vehicles in Kherson that are their route to the front lines.
Kherson
Ukraine made no secret of its intentions to retake this city in the south.
Kherson, the sole regional capital held by Russian troops since February, spans the Dnipro River, giving Putin’s men their only access to the west side and maintaining his hopes for an assault on Odessa’s port.
Officials warned anybody who would listen for weeks that they would return to retake the territory, and they backed up their threats with missile and bomb attacks on neighboring bridges, railways, ammo depots, airfields, and command centers.
This convinced Russia that the threat was real, resulting in a massive deployment of personnel and equipment to the region. Since May, over a dozen battalions have been transferred from the eastern Donbas to Kherson.
An estimated 30,000 troops were stationed there when Ukraine launched its invasion on August 29, with Nataliya Gumenyuk, the spokesman for Ukraine’s southern command, stating that the first line of defense had been breached.
On August 29, Ukraine started its much-hyped invasion in Kherson, claiming to have breached the Russian frontline. Since then, it has advanced along three axes: one from Davydiv Brid, which has gained the most ground, another moving south along the Dnipro River, which has gained only modest ground, and a third to the south, which has met with varying degrees of success.
Kyiv’s forces are making modest but steady progress in Kherson, trapping an estimated 30,000 Russian troops in the region – many of them are virtually stranded west of the Dnieper River after the destruction of the main bridge crossings.
According to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War, since late August Ukrainian forces have advanced along three major fronts (ISW).
Ukrainian troops forced the poorly-equipped 109th regiment of the Donetsk People’s Republic to retreat south from Davydiv Brid towards Beryslav, a major river crossing.
The troops of Kiev have now moved around eight miles south of their initial position, with fierce battle continuing.
In addition, a slow but steady advance has been taking place to the south of Kryvyi Rih, where Ukraine has recaptured a handful of minor towns and villages while pressuring Russia back into the Dnieper River.
The third front lies between the Ukrainian-held city of Mykolaiv and the city of Kherson, where the success of the Ukrainian forces has been uneven.
Analysts at ISW believe they have made some progress along the coast of the Dniprovs’ka Gulf towards the settlement of Oleksandrivka, but in reality they have been pushed back along the crucial M-14 motorway connecting the two cities.
In contrast to the dramatic buildup to the attack, which seems aimed to put Russia on high alert, Ukraine has spoken nothing about the operation now that it is underway, and has requested that people refrain from posting footage of it online.
Each side claims the other is suffering high casualties in the conflict, but neither provides evidence of their own.
Kharkiv
Kharkiv has been a forgotten frontline for months. Since mid-May, when Ukrainian troops crossed the Russian border and were subsequently forced back, fighting in this region has received little attention.
Yesterday, however, Ukraine launched a surprise attack to the east of the city, breaching Russian lines weakened by the evacuation of troops from Kherson and storming more than 12 kilometres in a single day.
ISW believes that they gained 155 square miles in a single sweep, with films showing dozens of dead or arrested Russian soldiers, including a lieutenant colonel, and overrun fortifications.
Balakliya, a city that had hosted significant Russian facilities and ammo depots, was abandoned yesterday evening, according to people with ties to the Russian military.
Dejected Russian war bloggers speculated that Izyum, the staging area for Putin’s broader assault on the Donbas, would be the next target. Dr. Martin of King’s College argued that the true objective of the operation was to control a key railway junction in the city of Kup’yans’k.
Ukraine launched a surprise counterattack east of Kharkiv on September 7, advancing more than 12 kilometers in a single day of action after punching through poorly held Russian frontlines with a “fist” of tanks and soldiers.
Somewhere in Kharkiv, Russian soldiers face a massive Ukrainian assault after Ukrainian forces burst past the frontlines and began rapidly taking area.
Capturing the junction would destroy the key rail link between the Russian city of Belgorod and the Ukrainian city of Izyum, depriving Putin’s forces in the Donbas of supplies, especially the hundreds of artillery shells they require daily to keep their offensives moving ahead.
Dr. Martin of King’s College wrote, “Ukraine is using the weakened Russian front lines in an attempt to seize the railway junction that will cut the supplies to Izyum, causing the majority of that front to collapse.”
Putin would be forced to abandon even his most modest war objective of seizing the entire Donbas region. It could also necessitate troops to retire from acquired area to avoid being surrounded and captured.
Wednesday night, during his nightly video broadcast, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed progress in the Kharkiv region.
This week, encouraging news has arrived from the Kharkiv region. You have likely already seen news reports about the actions of Ukrainian defenders, and I believe that every citizen is proud of our heroes,’ Zelensky said.
Oleksiy Arestovych, presidential adviser to Zelensky, also commented on Ukrainian successes near Kharkiv on Wednesday night, stating that they would assist disrupt supplies to Russian soldiers in the region and could lead to their encirclement.
Videos depicted dozens of dead or captured Russian soldiers, including a bloodied lieutenant colonel (pictured on the left) wearing epaulettes.