According to American officials, there is little concern that China will target Nancy Pelosi’s plane if she flies to Taiwan.
However, the U.S. House speaker would be travelling to one of the most volatile regions of the globe, where an accident, blunder, or miscommunication could put her safety in danger.
Therefore, the Pentagon is creating plans for any eventuality.
According to officials speaking to the Associated Press, the military would increase the movement of its forces and assets in the Indo-Pacific region if Pelosi travelled to Taiwan, which is still uncertain.
They refused to go into specifics, but stated that fighter jets, ships, surveillance tools, and other military systems would probably be employed to create overlapping rings of security for her flight to Taiwan and any time she spent there.
At a routine news conference on Wednesday, Zhao Lijian, spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, warned that Beijing is “firmly opposed to Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan,” according to Agence France-Presse.
“The U.S. side will bear all the consequences arising therefrom,” he continued, “if the U.S. pushes ahead and challenges China’s bottom line.”
Senior American leaders must travel abroad with extra security.
However, officials stated this week that Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, which would make her the highest-ranking elected official to visit Taiwan since 1997, would go above and beyond the standard security measures for journeys to less dangerous locations.
Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, responded on Wednesday when asked about the military’s preparations to safeguard Pelosi in the event of a visit, saying that talking about any specific travel is premature.
But he continued, “We will take the necessary steps to ensure the safety of Speaker Pelosi’s visit if it is decided that she or anyone else will travel and they have requested military support. I’ll stop there and conclude.”
China has mentioned the possibility of forcible annexing Taiwan, which has self-government, as part of its own territory.
Even though it recognises Beijing as the government of China, the United States still has informal ties and military cooperation with Taiwan.
The trip is being considered at a time when China has intensified what the United States and its allies in the Pacific describe as dangerous one-on-one military encounters to bolster its extensive territorial claims.
The events have involved harassing or obstructing air and sea crews, including the use of blinding lasers or water cannon, as well as dangerously close fly-bys that compel other pilots to swerve to avoid crashes.
Ely Ratner, U.S. associate defence secretary, stated on Tuesday at a South China Sea session hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies that there have been dozens of similar movements this year alone. China disputes the events.
The U.S. officials explained the need for establishing buffer zones around the speaker and her plane while speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss delicate security matters.
The U.S. currently has sizable soldiers dispersed around the region, so any increased security could be handled in large part by existing resources.
Additionally, the military would need to be ready for any occurrence, whether an accident on the ground or in the air. They stated that the United States might need to deploy helicopters on ships that are already in the vicinity as part of its rescue operations.
Pelosi, a Democrat from California, has not made any fresh plans for a trip to Taiwan public.
She had planned to travel in April, but she cancelled after discovering she had COVID-19.
When asked explicitly about the situation on Monday, the White House declined, pointing out that she had not confirmed the travel.
However, President Biden expressed misgivings about it to reporters last week, saying that the military believes her travel is “not a good idea right now.”
The call between Mr. Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday, their first in four months, may be affected by a Pelosi trip.
Prior to the official announcement, a U.S. official who spoke to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity confirmed the call’s plans.
According to American sources, the administration doesn’t believe China would directly target Pelosi or attempt to thwart the visit.
However, they don’t completely rule out the chance that, should the trip happen, China would increase its provocative military aircraft overflights in or close to Taiwanese airspace and naval patrols in the Taiwan Strait.
Additionally, they do not rule out Chinese military displays elsewhere in the region.
Chinese threat if Pelosi leaves contested to what extent
The severity of any threat during a trip and the necessity for any additional military protection divided security analysts on Tuesday.
The largest threat to Pelosi’s trip, according to Mark Cozad, acting associate director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the Rand Corporation, is a Chinese display of force “gone bad, or some form of accident that results from a demonstration of aggressive action.”
“It might thus be an air collision.
Again, when you’re doing those kinds of things, you know, there is always the chance that something may go wrong.
It might be some sort of missile test.”
Barry Pavel, director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council, laughed at reports that American authorities were considering using aeroplanes and aircraft carriers to protect the speaker.
“I believe that some of these recommendations are coming to you because the White House obviously does not want the speaker to leave.”
She won’t be travelling with an armada, Pavel said.
They added that a stepped-up American military presence to protect Pelosi ran the risk of escalating tensions.
It’s quite probable that our attempts to dissuade really send a signal that is completely different from the one we want to, according to Cozad.
“Thus, you enter into a circle of sorts in which our attempts to prevent are actually perceived as being more provocative, and the other way around.
And that dynamic can be really risky.”
Growing tensions
This week, Milley claimed that during the previous five years, there had been a considerable increase in the number of Chinese ships and aircraft intercepting American and other partner troops in the Pacific region.
According to him, the military in Beijing has grown significantly more aggressive and hazardous, and the frequency of harmful interactions has increased accordingly.
Among them are reports of Chinese fighter jets passing so closely over a Canadian air security patrol last month that the Canadian pilot had to swerve to avoid a collision, and another close call with an Australian surveillance flight in late May during which the Chinese crew let off a flurry of metal scraps that were sucked into the other plane’s engine.
According to American authorities, there are reasons to be concerned about the possibility of a Chinese aircraft intercepting or displaying its force near Pelosi’s flight, necessitating the necessity for American planes and other assets to be close by.
The American aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and its strike group recently docked in Singapore while conducting operations in the western Pacific.
At least two additional Navy ships are a part of the strike group, along with Carrier Air Wing 5, which is composed of F/A-18 fighter fighters, helicopters, and observation aircraft.
The strike group was engaged in operations in the South China Sea prior to entering port in Singapore.
The USS Benfold, a destroyer in the Navy, has also been engaged in freedom of navigation operations in the area, including a voyage across the Taiwan Strait only last week.