On Tuesday, voters in Florida, a former swing state that has recently tended toward the Republican party, will have the opportunity to cast their ballots.
Democrats will decide who will run against Sen. Marco Rubio and rising Republican star Gov. Ron DeSantis. The state is also creating a new congressional district as a result of its growing population.
Democrats lost two U.S. House seats in south Florida in 2020, despite winning the White House and the Senate. President Biden lost the state to former President Donald Trump by slightly under 4 points (371,686 votes). In 2016, Hillary Clinton was defeated by Donald Trump by a margin of 112,911 votes.
The events to watch on Tuesday are listed below:
Governor
In 2018, DeSantis lost to Andrew Gillum, a Democrat, by less than 0.5%. But since then, DeSantis has emerged as one of the most promising young Republicans, earning acclaim from conservatives for his COVID-19 reaction and for addressing topics related to the cultural war.
He is regularly mentioned as the front-runner for the presidency in 2024, particularly if former President Trump decides not to run.
Conservatives who share their views have been clamouring for DeSantis. DeSantis travelled to support Republican candidates in Arizona, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Ohio on the last two weekends before the home state’s primary election.
He doesn’t have a primary opponent and has already raised a staggering $160.9 million, which is more than the combined $26.1 million raised by the top two Democrats running against him in the general election.
There are four Democrats running for office, with former Republican governor Charlie Crist and state agriculture commissioner Nikki Fried topping the field. In their lone debate last month, Crist and Fried attacked DeSantis for his controversial ideas and what they saw to be his desire to go to higher position. As much as he worries about his own political destiny, he doesn’t care as much about you, according to Crist.
Added Fried, “He is neglecting to keep an eye on his home base. In order to have the potential to run for President of the United States, he is turning his attention away from you, the people.”
Even while the top Democrats are united in their desire to defeat DeSantis and have similar opinions on the majority of topics, they have sparred throughout the primary on abortion rights and environmental regulations.
Crist has already said that he personally identifies as “pro-life,” which Fried seizes upon. Fried said that due of Crist’s “disqualifying” opinions, “women don’t trust him.” Fried said that she “stood by her critique of Crist’s record on abortion” in a conversation with the Miami Herald editorial board and that she thinks the topic would help her win the primary.
But Crist often cites his rejection of a measure that would have made it more difficult to procure an abortion in 2010 while he was governor as evidence that he has aided pro-choice advocates.
Crist has consistently outpaced Fried in donations, polling, and endorsements throughout the primary season. Fried raised $10.9 million through his campaign and political committee, whereas Crist raised more than $15.2 million; in most polls, Crist was in the lead, sometimes by as much as 33 points; and Crist has won the support of a greater number of elected officials and the state’s top editorial boards than Fried.
However, Fried’s team claims she may be on pace to repeat Gillum’s come-from-behind victory in 2018, after an erroneous survey taken in the closing days of the race indicated she was 4 points ahead of Crist.
Federal Senate
Rubio, who was first elected in 2010, doesn’t have any primary rivals. Rubio, who was once seen as a rising star among Republicans, withdrew from the 2016 presidential run after finishing second in his state’s primary.
Rep. Val Demings, the front-runner among the four Democrats running to unseat him, has raised $45 million more than her closest rival, William Sanchez.
But Rubio remains the front-runner in November, and a recent survey from a GOP outsider showed him leading by 11 points. Demings, a former police chief who was considered a potential vice presidential candidate, has collected about $11 million more than Rubio so far and has spent $20 million more on advertising.
Additionally, a number of surveys with a Democratic lean have indicated a close race or Demings with a small edge, and an August poll from the University of North Florida gave her a 4-point advantage against Rubio.
Congress
Even more than the Republican-leaning map by Florida’s legislature, which he rejected, DeSantis fought hard for an extensively gerrymandered map.
According to his model, Republicans might pick up as many as four seats, with Democratic-leaning districts in the 5th, 7th, and 13th Districts likely to swing to the opposition party’s side and a new, firmly Republican version of the 15th District.
After a state judge ruled that the deletion of the 5th District violated the Constitution, Florida’s courts were sought to throw out the map. Prior to the midterm elections, the state Supreme Court opted not to consider a challenge to the maps.
District 1
Since 2016, Rep. Matt Gaetz of the Florida Panhandle has served as the representative for this safe Republican district. However, a sex trafficking inquiry is presently being looked at to see whether he broke any laws or impeded the course of justice.
Gaetz’s ex-girlfriend received amnesty earlier this year in connection with that probe, and his pal Joel Greenberg, a former tax collector for Seminole County, pled guilty to six federal crimes, including child trafficking.
Gaetz has said that he has never paid for sex or had intercourse with a minor and that he has denied any misconduct.
Mark Lombardo, a former FedEx executive who served in the Marine Corps, submitted his petition to run against Gaetz in June, according to FloridaPolitics.com. Lombardo, who is running as a “America First” conservative, has been attacking Gaetz all summer long.
Gaetz is taking the challenge seriously, launching his own summertime ad campaign, and joining Donald Trump Jr. at a rally on Monday. Over the weekend, the former president formally backed Gaetz on Truth Social.
District Two
The Republican-led redistricting abolished Florida’s only two districts with a majority of Black population, and the 370,000 Black citizens of the northern Florida 5th District are now dispersed among four other districts. Democratic Representative Al Lawson, who resides in Tallahassee and now serves the 5th District, decided to run for the 2nd District instead, challenging Panama City-based Republican Rep. Neal Dunn.
Lawson said to NPR last month that “Tallahassee needs a Democratic congressman.” “We won’t turn it over to Panama City.”
Trump carried the 2nd District by 11 points in 2020, and it leans Republican.
District 5,
This seat, which now represents southwest Jacksonville, is being sought for by three Republicans. The front-runner is Rep. John Rutherford, who now represents the 4th District. The seat currently has a 23-point Republican majority, and no Democrat has declared a candidacy.
District 7
Rep. Stephanie Murphy, a centrist Democrat and a member of the House Jan. 6 committee, said late last year that she would not seek reelection. The district has since been redrew to favour Republicans more.
Brady Duke, Cory Mills, and Anthony Sabatini, the top three Republicans running, have already collected more than $1 million apiece. The GOP views this district as a chance to switch. All four Democratic candidates have raised little more than $28,000.
According to FloridaPolitics.com, 12 of the 14 Republicans who attended a discussion last month for the 7th, 9th, and 10th Districts stated they did not think Mr. Biden would win the 2020 presidential election. Rusty Roberts and Ted Edwards, two Republicans running for office in the 7th District, were the only ones to claim that Mr. Biden had won.
District 13
The seat is being vacated by Crist, who is vying for governor in the Democratic primary, and redistricting has made it more Republican-leaning. The two leading GOP candidates for the seat are former prosecutor Kevin Hayslett and Air Force veteran Anna Paulina Luna, both of whom have Trump’s support. Compared to Hayslett’s $1.59 million, Luna has raised $1.95 million.
Despite not receiving Trump’s support, Hayslett has positioned himself as a Republican in the mould of both Trump and DeSantis.
This month, he ran an attack ad calling Luna a “RINO” (Republican in name only) for claiming to have “always supported President Obama’s immigration policy.” Meanwhile, Luna has referred to him as a “criminal” and charged him with “lying to voters.”
District 23
Democratic Representative Ted Deutch, who was first chosen in 2010, declared earlier this year that he would not seek reelection and would instead take on the role of CEO of the advocacy organisation American Jewish Committee.
It is anticipated that Democrats would maintain control of the district, which encompasses Boca Raton and Fort Lauderdale.
There are six Democrats running for office; Jared Moskowitz, a former state lawmaker who resigned from office to work for the DeSantis administration as director of the state’s emergency management division, is currently the front-runner for the nomination.