It has come to light that ministers have simulated emergency plans to deal with week-long blackouts this winter.
In a’reasonable worst-case scenario’, food and water supplies, transportation, and communications could be severely disrupted for up to seven days in the event of a national power outage, according to ‘officially sensitive’ government documents.
Whitehall officials are stress-testing Programme Yarrow, a secret plan to deal with blackouts that prioritizes providing food, water, and shelter to the young, elderly, and those with caregiving responsibilities, out of concern that Russian aggression in Ukraine has sparked an energy crisis this winter.
The Guardian stated that the cross-government plan was drafted prior to Vladimir Putin’s brutal invasion of Russia’s European neighbor in an effort to increase preparation and resilience in the case of a severe malfunction on the National Grid.
It is believed that the type of technical fault envisioned by the plans includes an attack by a hostile foreign power on underwater power cables – in the wake of attacks against the Nord Stream energy pipelines in the Baltic Sea, for which Moscow is widely blamed – as well as flood damage and thunderstorms.
It comes as the Met Office warns of a greater likelihood of a colder-than-usual winter this year, which might place further strain on gas and power supplies.
Programme Yarrow prepared for a scenario more dire than the one described by National Grid last month, which warned of rolling blackouts lasting three hours.
The plans anticipate that 60% of the demand for energy will be met “between days 2 and 7” when homes and businesses will have “intermittent access” to ration supplies. Businesses and households will receive 24 hours’ notice prior to a scheduled outage, and the plan may be publicized up to one week in advance on a rolling basis.
Winter could bring the first planned blackouts, known as rota load shedding on the grid, since the 1970s, according to the operator of the power system.
However, why could blackouts occur this year, who would be affected, and what can be done to prevent them?
Why would a power grid ever design outages?
Engineers working on the electricity grid must ensure that it is always “balanced.”
This means that the amount of electricity put into the system by power plants, wind farms, and others should equal the amount of electricity drawn from the grid by families and companies at any one time.
The grid anticipates times when it anticipates demand to be high so that it can request generators to meet that need.
But if there is ever an imbalance in which demand is greater than supply or supply is greater than demand, it can lead to significant grid failures.
This could result in actual physical damage to the grid, requiring days to fix.
If engineers anticipate that there will not be enough supply to meet demand, they must occasionally lower demand through planned outages to prevent catastrophic damage.
Why would winter blackouts be necessary?
Britain has one of the most stable electricity networks in the world, and power outages are uncommon unless lines are severed by storms or other incidents.
However, gas generators may not be able to obtain sufficient fuel this winter.
If this occurs, which the grid believes to be “unlikely,” it may be necessary to cut power to certain homes and businesses.
Who will be affected by blackouts and who will be disconnected first?
If the grid determines that it must disconnect some regions of the country, it will issue a notice to the local and regional distributors indicating the amount of demand that must be reduced.
These so-called distribution network operators will determine who is disconnected and who is not.
However, because DNOs have limited control, entire regions are typically affected.
How can we prevent power outages?
If blackouts are caused by a lack of supply, the only solution is to restrict demand during certain hours.
The majority of demand occurs between 4 and 7 p.m., when people arrive home from work, brew tea, turn on their ovens, and settle in front of the television.
People do not need to cut their overall electricity use if they shift their usage to different times of day.
During these hours, electric vehicles might be disconnected, the dishwasher could be delayed until 9 p.m., and the washing machine could be started earlier in the day or on the weekend.
In November, the grid and energy suppliers will start a new system that will reward individuals for shifting their energy consumption.
Similar to a hosepipe ban, the government may potentially regulate people’s energy consumption or counsel them to use less, although this has been ruled out.
According to documents acquired by The Guardian, the “rota disconnection plan” is intended to cut electricity equitably across the nation. The frequency of power outages will depend on the severity of the crisis, but will initially be limited to once a day for three hours. It could take up to an hour to restore electricity following a power outage.
And under the worst-case scenario of Programme Yarrow, only analogue FM radios would function, with just BBC Radio 2 and 4 broadcasting.
One Whitehall source told the newspaper, ‘We need to consider how we might assist individuals in advance. The fact that they are discussing it now indicates that they are truly concerned that it could occur.
A representative for the government stated, ‘As a responsible government, it is appropriate that we plan for all possible eventualities and collaborate with industry to develop and test comprehensive contingency plans. This effort is ongoing and is a vital component of our national strategy for resilience.
Local and national drills are a part of this continuing work and ensure that we can respond effectively to a broad variety of circumstances, regardless of how unlikely they may be.
The National Grid warned last month that Britain could experience power outages this winter if Russia cuts off gas supply to Europe and a harsh winter occurs.
The National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO) stated that in a ‘unlikely’ situation, families and businesses may experience three-hour blackouts to prevent the grid from collapsing.
During the 1970s, the United Kingdom had planned blackouts in reaction to the miners’ strikes and the oil crisis. In 1987, more than 1.5 million people were left in the dark as a result of an unscheduled power outage caused by a storm.
However, the lights will remain on this winter unless the gas-fired power plants that provided 43% of Britain’s electricity in the past year cannot continue to operate due to a lack of gas.
It is the most dire of three hypothetical scenarios sketched out by the ESO on Thursday for how the United Kingdom’s electricity infrastructure may handle the biggest global energy crisis in decades.
In the other two possibilities, the operator wants to mitigate the risk of blackouts by paying individuals to charge their electric vehicles during off-peak hours and by activating backup coal facilities.
According to the Electricity System Operator’s (ESO) base case scenario for this winter, the margins between peak demand and power supply are anticipated to be sufficient and comparable to recent years.
However, in light of the ‘difficult’ winter that European energy supplies may confront as a result of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the grid operator is also preparing for the possibility that there will be no imports of European electricity and insufficient gas supplies.
To compensate for the loss of imports from France, Belgium, and the Netherlands, two gigawatts of coal-fired power reactors are on standby to supply demand if necessary.
National Grid Gas Transmission stated separately that, despite the fact that gas consumption would grow this winter, it anticipates that Britain will be able to obtain sufficient gas to see it through a Beast from the East scenario or a long, harsh winter.
People are encouraged to sign up with their electricity provider for a program that will give them money back on their bills if they shift their energy consumption away from peak demand periods to prevent blackouts.
It comes at a time when Britons are being warned to prepare for winter blackouts if energy supplies run low, and weather experts warn of the possibility of a colder-than-usual winter.
As Putin’s tactical tightening of gas pipes in Europe begins to bite, UK energy chiefs warn of the risk of brief rolling blackouts this winter.
John Pettigrew, the head of the National Grid, believes the forthcoming winter would be “financially very, very difficult” for British homes.
Mr. Pettigrew attempted to allay fears that the United Kingdom could run out of gas and electricity this winter.
He stated that the National Grid’s “base case” assumption for this winter was that the United Kingdom would have sufficient energy supply to meet heating and lighting demand.
However, he added that brief rolling power outages were possible. In an interview with the BBC, he stated, “There could be energy shortages in the United Kingdom, and we will manage that properly.”
He added: ‘What we’re doing is ensuring that the infrastructure that we have and the networks are resilient and ready for the winter, and I’ve got hundreds of engineers ensuring that the network is ready for whatever weather we see over the winter.’
Mr. Pettigrew stated that the National Grid was working on a number of emergency solutions to defend the United Kingdom from a European energy shortage.
As countries fought to replenish for the big restart, gas supplies were already affected as a result of the Covid lockdowns, resulting in a massive spike in demand and consequently costs.
This is exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has curtailed Europe’s access to Russian gas.
Even though the majority of the United Kingdom’s gas comes from other nations and roughly 40 percent of its energy comes from gas, it is still affected by the disruption in the European energy pricing market.
Mr. Pettigrew told the BBC that reactivating dormant coal-fired power plants is one of the emergency options for powering the United Kingdom during winter if fuel supplies decline.
Due to energy concerns, the United Kingdom is already considering delaying the closing of a portion of a coal-fired power station in Nottinghamshire.
Mr. Pettigrew said, “The next stage would be to compensate households and businesses to minimize use during peak hours, with regional blackouts as a last option.”
If we anticipated a shortfall, the most effective method to manage the remainder of the network would be to ask the distribution businesses to lower demand during the period between 4 and 7 p.m.
The Met Office has just released its latest three-month forecast, covering this month, December, and January.
The Met Office says that the likelihood of a colder-than-average three-month period is “somewhat more than typical,” or approximately 1.30 times more likely.
This indicates that there is a 60% likelihood of a regular winter, a 25% possibility of a cold winter, and a 15% chance of a moderate winter.
The Met Office also predicts a 1.3-fold increase in the likelihood of a little quieter winter in terms of wind.
A winter with less wind could affect the ability to supplement energy deficits with additional wind power capacity.
The forecast is based on the Met Office’s three-month outlook, which is utilized for emergency preparation.
The forecast itself does not consider day-to-day conditions or storms, but rather the overall weather over a three-month period.
According to the Met Office, its forecast of a slightly colder winter is based on its monitoring of global weather patterns, including El Nino.
When combined with other long-term patterns over the Indian Ocean, this year’s weather phenomenon could bring colder spells, according to the report.