On Tuesday night, Tropical Storm Earl intensified into the second hurricane of the season, and it is expected to become a major storm by the weekend.
At 8 p.m., the National Hurricane Center reported that Earl had sustained winds of 80 mph, was located 550 miles south of Bermuda, and was moving north at 6 mph.
It is anticipated that the storm would curve away from the United States and out into the Atlantic Ocean, but it could initially impact Bermuda.
The NHC measured hurricane-force winds up to 30 miles from Earl’s center. Thursday night, the storm’s center is forecast to pass over Bermuda.
Friday, east of the Northern Leeward Islands in the Caribbean, Earl began to form. While the storm has been moving towards the East Coast, forecast models predict that Earl will turn away from the United States.
In the meantime, three other storm systems are being actively monitored, including Hurricane Danielle – the first hurricane of the season, which formed last week after August ended with no named storms for the first time in decades.
The National Hurricane Center predicts that Tropical Storm Earl will build into a major hurricane by the weekend, after it became the second hurricane of the season on Tuesday night.
Earl had sustained winds of 80 mph as of Tuesday evening at 8 p.m., was 550 miles south of Bermuda, and was moving north at 6 mph.
The NHC noted that Danielle has since lost strength and is anticipated to convert back to a tropical storm by Thursday. It has steady winds of 75 mph and is located 805 miles from the Azores. It is not anticipated to pose a hazard to land.
Earl is also not anticipated to pose a threat to land and to have any direct effects on the United States, as it is forecast to curve into the open waters of the North Atlantic this weekend after passing near Bermuda.
In the following days, however, there will be a greater risk of rip currents in East Coast beaches due to the storm.
The hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30, with its peak being between mid-August and mid-October. NOAA reports that the seventh storm of the year typically develops by September 3; however, this year has been rather calm.
It is the first time since 1941 that the Atlantic has gone from July 3 to the end of August without a named storm, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University.
Next Earl, the following storms will be called Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, and Ian, following the custom of naming storms and hurricanes alphabetically.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projected a very intense 2022 season on May 24.
They stated, ‘Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a part of the National Weather Service, are projecting above-average hurricane activity this year, which would mark the seventh straight season with above-average hurricane activity.
Meanwhile, three other storms are being monitored, including the season’s first hurricane, Hurricane Danielle, which developed last week after August ended with no named storms for the first time in decades.
According to the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Earl quickly intensified into a hurricane on Tuesday, becoming the second hurricane of an otherwise quiet season.
65 percent likelihood of an above-normal season, 25 percent chance of a near-normal season, and 10 percent risk of a below-normal season were projected by NOAA.
They anticipate 14 to 21 named storms with winds of 39 mph or more, of which six to ten could develop into hurricanes.
They anticipated that up to six of these might become major storms.
Since 1950, this phenomena has occurred five times, making a quiet period this long preceding peak season a roughly once-per-decade occurrence.
A recent period of relative calm could be attributable to higher-than-usual wind shear – the rotation of winds at different levels of the atmosphere, which prevents storm formation.
This season has seen an increase in Saharan dust, which inhibits the development of storms.
A NOAA photo shows researchers flying over the eye of Tropical Storm Earl, which quickly intensified into a hurricane on Tuesday evening.
The NHC reported that Storm Earl’s maximum sustained winds had climbed to about 80 miles per hour and that it is anticipated to become a major hurricane.
Given that the United Nations’ weather organization stated last week that they expect La Nia to continue through the end of the year, the quiet period is even more strange.
La Nia is a natural and periodic cooling of regions of the equatorial Pacific that alters global weather patterns, frequently contributing to an increase in Atlantic storms, a decrease in precipitation, and an increase in wildfires.
If La Nia persists for the remainder of the year, it will be the first “triple dip” of the 21st century – three consecutive years of the climate event.
It is amazing that no hurricanes have occurred during a La Nia year.
In 1961 and 1997, there were no tropical storms or hurricanes in August.