Following two disastrous by-election outcomes, Boris Johnson is currently facing a new leadership crisis.
After the earthquake results in Tiverton and Wakefield, the PM stated he would “listen,” but he also sought to downplay the devastating blows by characterizing them as a challenging “patch” for the government.
But now that Tory head Oliver Dowden resigned, Mr. Johnson—who is now more than 4,000 miles away in Rwanda—is facing a new threat to his leadership.
The outgoing minister delivered what appeared to be a coded attack on the PM, saying the party cannot continue with ‘business as usual’.
So just how much danger is Mr Johnson in, and how likely is the crisis to end his premiership?
We recently had a Tory confidence vote, aren’t we?
Yes! Sir Graham Brady, the head of the backbench 1922 Committee, called for a vote earlier this month after receiving a letter from 15% of Conservative MPs.
The PM prevailed, but 148 of his 359 MPs supported ousting him in a secret vote.
That was welcomed by Mr. Johnson and his backers as a resounding win, and they pushed the party to unify behind him.
According to many experts, the rebels should have waited to cast their votes until after these crucial by-election results came in since the premier would have lost.
Can they just call another vote?
In theory, party rules mean that because Mr Johnson secured 50 per cent of the vote he cannot be challenged again for 12 months.
But notably Theresa May also won a confidence battle, and was later threatened with a rule change to enable her to face another vote – forcing her to resign.
The 1922 committee has made clear this time that changing the rules would be a last resort.
There are concerns that allowing repeated votes would merely result in perpetual crisis.
Is there any other way for the leader to be evicted?
Mr Johnson has defiantly insisted he will not entertain the ‘crazy’ idea of resigning.
And – barring the Opposition winning a vote of no confidence in the House – there is no formal mechanism to get rid of him before the next general election.
However, a withdrawal of support by the Cabinet would make his position untenable.
Tory chair Oliver Dowden’s decision to quit and refuse to back Mr Johnson inflicts a blow – but to become terminal it would take more big figures to walk out and openly call for Mr Johnson to go.
What happens if the leader is ousted?
The leader is sacked if they lose a Tory confidence vote, and a leadership contest begins in which they cannot stand. Resignation would also trigger a contest.
However, the outgoing chief typically stays on as Prime Minister until a replacement is chosen.
Are there any other big moments coming up that could fuel the revolt?
The cross-party Privileges Committee is about to kick off an inquiry into whether Mr Johnson misled the House over Partygate.
It is expected to report in the Autumn, when the PM will also have to run the gauntlet of Tory conference.
But perhaps the biggest looming threat to Mr Johnson is the cost-of-living crisis, with inflation forecast to soar over 11 per cent in October when energy bills rise again.