As MPs squabble about Brexit and when to launch a coup against Boris Johnson, the Tory revolt threatens to devolve into chaos.
In the aftermath of the Partygate incident, speculation over a vote of confidence in the Prime Minister has reached fever pitch, with Conservative critics piling up.
However, the uprising does not appear to be well-coordinated, and anti-Boris forces are split on when they should strike.
If the threshold of 54 no-confidence letters is reached on Monday or Tuesday, prompting a parliamentary ballot, some MPs believe Mr Johnson will comfortably prevail. Instead, they’re pushing their colleagues to wait until June 23, when two crucial by-elections will be held.
Meanwhile, ringleaders are feuding over former minister Tobias Ellwood’s suggestion that the UK rejoin the EU’s single market, even if it means accepting free movement of people.
Tom Tugendhat, the chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, who has openly stated his desire to be the next leader, instantly distanced himself from the position.
‘Tobias is wrong. The Single Market puts the EU in charge,’ he tweeted. ‘We need a deal British people control not foreign laws with no say.’
Ex-chief whip Mark Harper, who has himself submitted a letter calling for Mr Johnson to face a confidence vote, also dismissed the idea.
‘The UK voted to leave the EU. That meant leaving the Single Market and putting an end to freedom of movement. The end,’ he tweeted.
Mr Ellwood, who has been touring television and radio studios to denounce the Prime Minister on an almost daily basis, acknowledged yesterday that there should be a period of silence while the country marks the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee.
The Bournemouth East MP said: ‘I think perhaps we should have a pause maybe, leave this until [next week], when we will return.’
Under Conservative party rules, Mr Johnson will face a confidence vote amongst Tory MPs if 54 write to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 committee, demanding one.
While only around 20 MPs have publicly indicated they have sent letters, many more have been critical. Some might have .
Sir Graham famously never reveals the numbers until the threshold is reached.
If a confidence vote is called, the PM’s opponents would need more than half of the party’s MPs to back removing him – a very high bar, although anything short of an overwhelming victory could inflict terminal damage.
In theory if Mr Johnson wins be any margin he cannot be challenged again for a year.
Allies of Mr Johnson have dismissed suggestions the rebels have the numbers.
Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab said on Wednesday he did not believe a vote will be triggered next week as he ‘doubts’ there are even 40 letters in.
Conservative MPs are a notoriously duplicitous electorate. There was a much more organised revolt against Theresa May, and the ringleaders still struggled to keep track of how many were genuinely calling for a confidence vote.
One of the primary problems with the attempted coup is the lack of a clear successor.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who was formerly the favorite, was also fined over Partygate and has been harmed by the rising cost of living.
Former foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt, Mr Tugendhat, and trade minister Penny Mordaunt have all been mentioned as possible alternatives for Prime Minister David Cameron.
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, both members of the present government, are rumored to be in the running.
Mr Johnson, on the other hand, has had significant support from his current colleagues.
Mr Ellwood, the chair of the Commons defence committee, was outraged yesterday by claims made by the Prime Minister’s allies that those plotting against him are’self-indulgent, narcissistic, and dismissive.’
‘I’m concerned about the direction it’s heading,’ he told Times Radio. ‘Whatever happens, wherever the party moves, the party itself must work together.’
Mr Ellwood’s admission that the public does not want to hear from him and his fellow plotters over the Jubilee weekend comes after Home Secretary Priti Patel encouraged her Tory colleagues not to let leadership battles overwhelm the celebrations yesterday.
‘Events like these are about honoring our country, nation, ideals, and monarchy.’ This is about Her Majesty the Queen, and I believe that’s where everyone’s attention should be focused,’ she said.
Lord Evans, head of the independent Committee on Standards in Public Life, said yesterday that ‘questions’ must be asked about whether Mr Johnson and his minister are upholding proper standards.
He urged for ethics standards to be changed so that the Prime Minister no longer has a veto over whether alleged violations of the ministerial code can be probed on BBC Radio 4’s Today show.
Mr Johnson dismissed claims that he is a ‘habitual liar’ earlier this week, saying that retiring over the’miserable’ partygate controversy would be irresponsible.
He highlighted ‘great challenges’ on the economy, the Ukraine conflict, and his’massive program that I was elected to deliver’ as reasons for staying in office and not intending to ‘abandon’ ship.
He was informed he was deemed a ‘habitual liar’ in an interview with Mumsnet published on Wednesday.
‘First and foremost, I disagree with the result of the question asked or the premise of the question,’ said the Prime Minister.
When asked why a teacher would lose their job if they broke the law, Mr Johnson responded, “If people look at the event in question it felt to me like a work event, I was there for a very short period of time in the Cabinet Office at my desk and, you know, I was very, very surprised and taken aback to get an FPN but of course I paid it.”
‘I think that on why am I still here, I’m still here because we’ve got huge pressures economically, we’ve got to get on, you know, we’ve got the biggest war in Europe for 80 years, and we’ve got a massive agenda to deliver which I was elected to deliver.
‘I’ve thought about all these questions a lot, as you can imagine, and I just cannot see how actually it’d be responsible right now – given everything that is going on simply to abandon a) the project which I embarked on but b)…’
Mr Johnson was interrupted at this point and told that some people believe he has lost the people’s trust, to which the Prime Minister responded, ‘Let’s see about that and, yeah, I’m not going to deny the whole thing hasn’t been a totally miserable experience for people in Government and we’ve got to learn from it and understand the mistakes we made and move forward.’
However, Simon Fell, elected Conservative MP for Barrow and Furness in 2019, was the latest to be reported to have raised concerns and criticised the ‘corrosive culture and a failure of leadership’ that allowed the incidents to happen.
Mr Johnson’s own ethics adviser also slated his handling of Partygate, with Lord Geidt suggesting Mr Johnson’s fixed penalty notice (FPN) may have breached the ministerial code.
Lord Geidt, the independent adviser on the ministerial code, said the FPN had raised a ‘legitimate question’ about whether it had broken the ‘overarching obligation under the ministerial code of compliance with the law.’
Mr Johnson and his wife Carrie attended Trooping the Colour yesterday. He’ll give a reading at the Queen’s thanksgiving ceremony at St Paul’s Cathedral today, and they’ll both be at the concert outside Buckingham Palace tomorrow evening.