According to a recent poll, the pro-life amendment in Kansas is leading by only a hair.
The August 2 referendum is the first significant statewide vote on abortion since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
In Kansas, the pro-life amendment will likely receive support from 47% of potential primary voters, opposition from 43%, and 10% of undecided voters, according to a survey by co/efficient and shared by FiveThirtyEight.
A simple majority of 51% is required to pass the amendment.
Between July 17 and 18, an automated landline interviewing system and mobile text response were used to poll 1,557 probable Kansas primary voters.
Its error margin is +/- 2.78 percent.
During the state’s primary election, Kansas residents will cast ballots on the pro-life amendment, also known as the “Value Them Both” amendment.
The amendment would overturn the 2019 decision by the Kansas Supreme Court that the state constitution safeguards a woman’s “right” to an abortion.
Currently, passing any kind of abortion restriction by state lawmakers is generally forbidden.
If voters adopt the proposal, state legislators would be authorized to enact rules governing or restricting abortion.
The outcome of the election will have wide-ranging effects that go beyond Kansas.
It could reveal how other states will vote on abortion following the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson, which reversed Roe and gave abortion policy to the states, as well as reveal public opinion on abortion in advance of the November midterm elections.
Additionally, it could influence whether Kansas acts as a gateway for women from surrounding states with abortion restrictions.
The Value Them Both Coalition’s deputy communications director, Mackenzie Haddix, praised the poll’s results. Kansans for Life, the Kansas Catholic Conference, and Kansas Family Voice are the leaders of the coalition that is in favor of the amendment.
Because we are aware that Kansans do not agree with the radical pro-abortion agenda of the left, we are encouraged, Haddix told CNA.
“These polling results are further proof that Americans oppose a future in which there is a 1,000% increase in abortions paid for with our tax dollars and understand Value Them Both must be passed to avert this increase,” the poll’s authors wrote.
The Kansas City Star previously reported that the Guttmacher Institute predicted an increase in abortions in Kansas of more than 1,000% as a result of neighboring states’ restrictions on the procedure.
According to the new poll, which breaks down the findings by political party, 68 percent of Republican likely primary voters in Kansas want to vote in favor of the amendment, 18 percent do not, and 14 percent are still unsure.
Among Democrats, 10% intend to vote yes, 86% intend to vote no, and 4% are unsure.
The statements that most accurately reflected how Kansas’s likely voters understood the amendment were also chosen.
Thirty one percent said it would enable Kansas to outlaw abortion, thirty percent said it would make clear that the Kansas Constitution does not provide a right to an abortion, and thirty one percent said it would safeguard women’s healthcare by allowing the state to establish abortion regulations.
The three possibilities were justified by Ryan Munce, president of co/efficient.
“We came up with those three ‘buckets’ of interpretation’ after examining the message and narratives of the media and campaigns both for and against the amendment,” Munce told CNA. We reasoned it would provide us a clear picture of how the messaging is functioning and how public opinion is shaping the amendment.
He referred to the fact that all three statements received nearly the same percentage of votes as “definitely surprising” given the evidence.
Democrats are three times more likely than Republicans to think that the amendment aims to outright outlaw abortion in the state, he noted.
“While a sizable majority of Republicans read the amendment differently.”
“I would just stress that the amendment is not a prohibition on abortion, but rather allows us to restore commonsense controls on the abortion business that Kansans already agree on,” Haddix said of the numerous possibilities.
Ashley All of Kansans for Constitutional Freedom, who serves as the spokesperson for the coalition attempting to defeat the amendment, charged that those in favor of it aim to “ultimately ban abortion altogether with no exceptions.”
She predicted a “close race” in response to CNA’s inquiry about the poll’s results.
She expressed sadness that the vote would occur during the primary rather than the main election in November, saying that those who support the amendment “hope fewer Kansans vote.”
Of the probable voters, 86 percent stated they were familiar with the “Value Them Both” constitutional amendment that will be on the ballot August 2.
Only 7 percent claimed they were not.
The majority (84%) of respondents, including 94% of Democrats and 78% of Republicans, thought that the amendment made voting in the upcoming election even more important.
Kansas voters on abortion and Roe v. Wade
Of likely Kansas primary voters, the co/efficient poll revealed that 49 percent agreed with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, while 46 percent disapproved.
A plurality of Kansas voters (43 percent ) stated that there should be no government limits on abortion, while 5 percent said abortion should be banned under any condition.
In the middle, 19 percent said abortion should only be allowed in cases of rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother, while 16 percent said non-medically required abortion in Kansas should be legal but not past viability of the unborn.
Seven percent of respondents thought abortion should only be permitted to save the mother’s life.
Additionally, 6% of respondents believed that Kansas should not allow non-medically required abortions following the discovery of a heartbeat.