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The starts aren’t getting better.
In seven of their last eight games, the Knicks have faced a big first-quarter deficit, including double-digit deficits in five of them.
Clearly, the starting five without Mitchell Robinson is ineffective, but head coach Tom Thibodeau has a simple remedy.
Start one of the team’s best players. Start the player who is having the best season of his career, is one of your most effective two-way players, is second on your roster in assist-to-turnover ratio, has the second-best net rating and the second-highest defensive rating on the club, and is having the best season of his career.
Begin with Immanuel Quickley.
When Quickley is on the floor, the Knicks score six more points per 100 possessions than their opponents. His ability to make shots, defensive improvement, and ball movement enhance the team’s performance. And all are in short supply when the Knicks have recently taken the court.
Lately, it has been clear that the Knicks must make a change to avoid facing an uphill battle each night. They were 15 points behind the Celtics in the first quarter of Thursday’s overtime victory, 11 points behind the Nets on Saturday, and 10 points behind the Lakers on Tuesday. Julius Randle, Jericho Sims, Jalen Brunson, Quentin Grimes, and RJ Barrett are outscored by a staggering 16.8 points per 100 possessions over 126 minutes with a dreadful defensive rating of 133. Substitute Barrett for Quickley, and the team is essentially on par with the opposition, albeit in only 44 minutes.
In a perfect scenario, Barrett would be placed on the bench to provide scoring punch to the second unit and maximize his one-on-one skills. When Barrett is paired with Brunson and Randle, the Knicks have a minus-3.9 net rating this season. Replace Barrett with Quickley and the Knicks outscore the opposition by six points per 100 possessions. When Barrett, Brunson, and Randle share the court, the defensive rating is 120.9, however when Quickley replaces Barrett, the defensive rating drops to 108.3. When Barrett is on the court with Randle, Brunson, and Grimes, the Knicks continue to struggle, registering a minus-1.7 net rating. Substitute Quickley for Barrett, and their performance improves to a plus-10.7.
Obviously, it is difficult to imagine the Knicks and Thibodeau demoting a player they drafted and who they just extended for four years and $107 million. Grimes, one of the team’s best defenders, has recently struggled with his 3-point shooting, making only seven of his last 32 attempts from outside the arc. Quickley is not significantly worse defensively than Grimes, and Grimes will be given more offensive latitude in the second unit. Too frequently, when playing with the starting unit, he stands on the perimeter and waits for the ball to come to him. With this modification, the second-year guard would have more opportunities to diversify his offensive game beyond spot-up shooting.
But this is more about Quickley and maximizing the amount of time your greatest players spend on the court together. He played 39 minutes during Tuesday’s loss to the Lakers. Thibodeau chose Quickley over Barrett to close out the game for two extremely lengthy stretches: from 5:30 remaining in the first quarter until halftime and the final 21:01 of the game. If Quickley is going to be one of your game-winners, which he has surely earned, then starting him would put him in a better position to be at his best in the fourth quarter.
He is already having the best season of his three-year career, recording personal bests in scoring (12.7), rebounds (4.1), and field-goal percentage (43.7), and he will continue to improve. In the past 15 games, he has averaged 15.4 points on 52 percent shooting with a 3.64 assist-to-turnover ratio, a team-best 6.4 net rating, and a 3.64 assist-to-turnover ratio.
The Knicks should capitalize on their young player’s development. It could alleviate their current problems in the first half.
The stakes for OG
For the Knicks and their front office, the next eight days will be decisive. The trade deadline is next Thursday, giving team president Leon Rose one last opportunity to bolster Thibodeau’s squad in the hopes of reaching the playoffs for the second time in three seasons.
The wing of the Raptor O.G. Anunoby is a desirable alternative and a significant objective. He is only 25 years old, a decent 3-point shooter, and a quality wing defender with size, which is exactly what the Knicks need. Obviously, the question is the price. According to Sportsnet in Canada, the Knicks are willing to offer three first-round selections to get Anunoby, who averages 16.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, and shoots 36.6 percent from three-point range.
I believe the Knicks should not wait for a superstar to become available before making a move. Recently, owner James Dolan stated that he expects this club to make the playoffs, which could increase the pressure on Rose to take action.
Anunoby’s price may be exorbitant due to the absence of a marquee player on the market and the abundance of teams trying to sign wingers.
In addition, the Knicks might use a backup point guard. While Miles McBride has produced strong defense for the second unit, he remains an offensive liability as a second-year guard. In January, he shot 26.8 percent from the field and provided less than one assist per game on average. Without Brunson on the court, the Knicks have struggled early in the fourth quarter. For this team to have any success in the spring, he must get additional experience.
Who is the nearest?
The final play of Tuesday’s loss to the Lakers, in which Randle missed a shot attempt with 4.5 seconds remaining and the game tied, has been widely discussed. Brunson, who rallied the Knicks back from a six-point hole in the last 1:41 of regulation, was not in possession of the ball.
Brunson has had similar opportunities and has not always performed significantly better. On January 16, he missed a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer in a home overtime defeat to the Raptors. Earlier in the season, he failed in late-game scenarios against the Grizzlies and Trail Blazers.
In Randle’s recent victories over the Cavaliers and Celtics, he came up huge in crucial moments. In conclusion, the Knicks lack a true closer. Both players have had their chances, and they will continue to possess the ball in crucial situations. When the shot is taken, there are no complaints.
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