A major portion of the UK is preparing for yet another heatwave, and the drought that has triggered hosepipe restrictions and fire warnings is only projected to become somewhat better as a result.
However, it won’t be as intense as the record-breaking heat in July when the thermometer went beyond 40C, according to the Met Office, where temperatures are expected to surge into the low to mid-30s in central and southern regions of the UK.
In a large portion of the UK, heatwave thresholds—which are reached at varying temperatures depending on where you are—are expected to be reached.
The Met Office warned that temperatures outside of the warmest locations might range widely in the high 20s, with a risk that some places could experience temperatures as low as the low 30s.
The experts predicted that temperatures in Scotland and Northern Ireland would also be in the upper 20s and may meet formal heatwave standards by Friday.
From Tuesday through Saturday, southern and central England will be under a heat health warning from the UK Health Security Agency, and experts have advised the public to watch out for the elderly, persons with preexisting diseases, and small children.
Households in certain places are being asked not to ignite fires or use grills since the most recent heatwave follows months of little rain, which have left the countryside and urban parks and gardens tinder-dry.
Following a significant fire that destroyed gardens, sheds, and trees and was likely started by a chiminea, Essex County Fire and Rescue Service is advising residents not to burn barbecues or bonfires, or discharge rockets or sky lanterns.
In order to lower the risk of wildfires in the dry conditions this summer, the Country Land and Business Association (CLA), which represents 28,000 farmers and landowners in England and Wales, has demanded that retailers follow Marks & Spencer’s lead and ban the sale of disposable barbecues throughout the UK.
For much of England and Wales, the Met Office’s fire severity index (FSI), which measures how catastrophic a fire may grow if one were to start, is extremely high, and by the weekend, it will be “exceptional” for most of England.
Following the driest November to June period since 1976 and the driest July on record for portions of southern and eastern England, two water providers have already declared hosepipe restrictions, and others have warned they may need to do the same.
Droughts are more likely to occur as a result of climate change, which is fueled by greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels and other human activities, according to scientists.
The likelihood of heat waves is also increasing due to climate change, with last month’s record temperatures becoming at least 10 times more probable and “nearly impossible” without it, according to study.
In response to the UK’s changing climate, the Met Office has increased the thresholds for eight English counties’ declarations of official heatwaves.
“Heatwave requirements are likely to be reached for wide sections of the UK later this week,” said Tony Wardle, deputy chief meteorologist at the Met Office.
“The warmest regions are forecast in central and southern England and Wales on Friday and Saturday.”
On Saturday, temperatures may reach a high of 35C or possibly 36C in a single location.
Because of an area of high pressure that is spreading across most of the UK, temperatures elsewhere this week will rise steadily into the upper 20s and low 30s Celsius.
The mercury is predicted to barely dip to the low 20s Celsius for certain locations in the south, “coupled with the high daytime temperatures will be prolonged warm evenings.”
Only the North West is expected to get any brief showers, according to the Met Office’s prediction.
Further south, where there hasn’t been much precipitation in a while, Mr. Wardles stated: “Dryness will persist through the week and give little respite for parched area, particularly in the South East.”
There are several factors that contribute to drought episodes being worse due to human-caused climate change, according to Richard Allan, professor of climate science at the University of Reading.
Heatwaves accelerate the development of drought conditions, a warmer atmosphere is thirstier and dries out the ground, and since continents are warming so quickly, ocean breezes cannot carry enough precipitation across the land.
Additionally, uneven global warming may alter weather patterns and increase the frequency of extended dry or rainy spells.
According to Prof. Allan, “Human-caused climate change is increasing the global water cycle and upsetting weather patterns, resulting in more severe droughts but also more major floods events throughout the world.”
‘Above all else, the drought risk we are seeing in the UK is a reminder that we urgently need to tackle the problem at source: this means reducing emissions from fossil fuels to limit the severity of harmful climate change we will face,’ said Dr. Leslie Mabon, lecturer in environmental systems at The Open University.
Furthermore, nations like the UK, who have historically had a more moderate climate and have less experience dealing with the long-term impacts of hot, dry periods, need to start making preparations for hotter weather right now.
“This includes looking at our water infrastructure and assessing where investments are made to ensure we are better equipped for managing water in hot periods,” the author writes.