Ukraine is convinced that its fate will be decided in the muck and blood of Donbas, where its soldiers are attempting to crush the Russian army with skill, bravery, and a terrifying arsenal of Western weapons.
The Middle East’s deserts and Africa’s farmlands, where 44 million people who depended on the nation for food are now facing hunger unless the fight can be brought to an immediate conclusion, appear to be the most likely locations where its fate could be decided.
Blockades of Ukraine’s major Black Sea ports have cut off grain supplies that formerly fed 400 million people, posing a threat of starvation and rioting in places like Libya, Liberia, Syria, and South Sudan.
At least on this front, Putin appears to be triumphant. A rising number of officials, including African Union head Macky Sall in recent weeks, have urged the West to open the way for a peace agreement that, according to the majority of analysts, would favor Russia but would restore supplies.
Western leaders, who are playing catch-up, have pledged to do “everything it takes” to reopen Ukraine’s ports, including Boris Johnson at today’s G7 conference.
However, they face the difficult job of sailing cargo vessels through Russia’s Black Sea fleet and through a minefield to collect the grain.
The possibility of several, concurrent worldwide famines is increasing, and along with it, Putin’s prospects of squeaking out a win despite Ukraine’s valor on the battlefield.
According to the most recent data from the World Bank, before the start of the war on February 24, Ukraine supplied 11% of the world’s grain and food was one of its key exports, valued $18.5 billion in 2018.
A quarter of those shipments went to either the Middle East and North Africa or sub-Saharan Africa, two places that are currently most at danger of shortages since they have few other options. Nearly half of those exports went to Europe.
Up to 40% of the world’s wheat, which is used to manufacture staples like bread, was supplied by Ukraine to the World Food Programme, an organization run by the UN that distributes food for the world’s most vulnerable.
The current food shortage is a logistical one; there is enough food to go around; the challenge is delivering it to those who need it.
Odesa and Mykolaiv, Ukraine’s two major Black Sea ports that together carried tens of millions of tonnes of grain each year but have been fully shuttered since the war began, riddled with mines and guarded by the guns of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, served as the country’s principal export route.
Leaders are attempting to convey the grain utilizing the road and rail networks, but they are unable to do it efficiently or deliver the 22 million tonnes of grain that are needed to the areas that need it most.
It is unclear whether ambitious efforts to send Turkish and Egyptian ships along purported “humanitarian corridors” to obtain the grain would be successful. ‘I think it can be done,’ said Dr. Sidharth Kaushal of the research tank RUSI to the BBC today.
‘Whether it will be done is a far more open question.
Even if all of the grain could be moved today, the crisis would not be fully resolved. With its farms covered with mines and shell holes and its employees being conscripted into the military, where many have been killed or injured, Ukraine’s output is expected to be substantially lower for years to come.
Additionally, Ukraine was a significant supplier of fertilizer, which is now prohibited from leaving the nation, making future harvests throughout the world more likely to be lower.
It could seem that in such a situation, the leaders of the Middle East and Africa would stand with Ukraine in opposition to Russia’s invasion.
Both regions, however, harbor a deep-seated hatred of the West and are becoming more and more reliant on the Kremlin for trade and security.
Wagner mercenaries are stationed in a few countries to assist in suppressing uprisings or holding back extremists while dozens of African governments have signed arms sales or military cooperation agreements with Russia.
Moscow also has a strong diplomatic network, which disseminates information accusing the West of starting the war.
Russia has a strong interest in the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria since it assisted the dictator in maintaining control during the civil war and has a history of relations with Iran and Turkey.
These tactics are paying dividends, as African Union President Macky Sall visited Moscow earlier this month for a meeting with Putin. After the meeting, he exited and issued a statement that appeared to attribute the disruption of the food supply networks to Western sanctions rather than the invasion.
In recent weeks, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has also had direct conversations with the Kremlin over food supply. Ramaphosa has blamed the conflict on NATO “aggression” and pushed Ukraine to reach a peace agreement.
Al-Assad of Syria and the Iranian government have inevitably sided with Russia in the Middle East, but even some of the West’s closest friends, like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, have declined to do so.
More than half of the 35 nations that did not participate in the UN vote to condemn Russia’s incursion in March came from the Middle East or Africa. Eritrea and Syria were two of the five countries who voted against; the other three were North Korea, Belarus, and Russia.
Comparatively, just four out of 55 heads of state attended a much-delayed video conference that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arranged with the African Union last week; the others sent delegates.
Ursula Von Der Leyen and Charles Michel, the top two representatives of the EU, have also been sent to the Middle East and Africa to help maintain support for the war.
Last week, they pledged about $630 million in food aid to help with the impending crisis, but noticeably without any commitments of support.
Zelensky was given another opportunity to address some of those leaders at the G7 conference in Germany today, where Ramaphosa, Sall, Narendra Modi of India, and Joko Widodo of Indonesia were in attendance.
In a forceful joint statement following the meeting, the G7 vowed to “give financial, humanitarian, military, and diplomatic support and stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes.”
“As the G7, we stand firmly by Ukraine and will continue to do so.” We all need to make difficult but important decisions for this,’ summit host Olaf Scholz tweeted in appreciation of Zelensky’s participation. “We’ll keep putting more pressure on Putin.” This conflict must be over.
The G7 warned Russia that it must permit grain exports to leave Ukraine in order to prevent a worsening of the world food crisis.
According to the statement, “We immediately call on Russia to cease, without condition, its attacks on agricultural and transportation infrastructure and to allow free passage of agricultural shipping from Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea.”
The fact that leaders from other countries attended the conference, however, implies that they are aware that unless they can persuade them, they may be compelled to sign a peace treaty that ultimately favors Russia, allowing Putin to rearmament, fortify, and re-invade, as he did after 2014.
The threats to international security could not be greater. Dealing with Russia would not only increase concerns about potential violence, but the likelihood of famine in the coming years also increases the likelihood of conflict.
When the globe last experienced a severe food crisis, between 2010 and 2012, it caused instability, which some analysts contend served as a catalyst for the Arab Spring upheavals.
Both the civil wars in Libya and Syria, which drew in the West and fueled the growth of ISIS, broke out during that time, and neither nation has entirely recovered from the consequences.
And if a major food crisis occurred, they would probably be among the countries hardest hit, along with Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia, which are all located in the Horn of Africa.
Before the conflict in Ukraine started, 18.5 million people in the unstable region faced the threat of famine as a result of a four-year drought.
The biggest crisis this region has ever experienced could see as many as 20 million people affected by September, according to Shaswat Saraf, the International Rescue Committee’s regional emergency director, who spoke to ITV.
The BBC quoted Matthew Hollingworth, the emergency coordinator for the World Food Programme in Ukraine, as saying: “We are concerned for the more than 345 million people who are currently experiencing severe levels of food insecurity around the world.
“That is largely a result of the conflict in Ukraine, partially a result of rising prices, and partially a result of the Covid pandemic’s continuing effects on the world economy.”
But it is undeniably true that the Ukraine war is one of our top concerns since a nation that fed 400 million people last year through its food exports is no longer able to do so.