Early in November, Hays Culbreth’s mother sent a poll to a few members of the family. She explained that she could only afford to prepare two Thanksgiving sides for their party of fifteen and asked them to decide on their favorites.
Culbreth predicts that green beans and macaroni and cheese will make the cut, but that his favorite dish, sweet potato casserole with a brown sugar topping, will not.
“Talk about ruining Thanksgiving,” said the 27-year-old financial planner from Knoxville, Tennessee, Culbreth.
Americans are preparing for a pricey Thanksgiving this year, as the cost of turkey, potatoes, stuffing, canned pumpkin, and other essentials has increased by double-digit percentages. The U.S. government predicts that food costs would increase by 9.5% to 10.5% this year, although historically they have only increased by 2% annually.
Lower productivity and greater costs for labor, transportation, and goods are contributing factors, as are disease, severe weather, and the conflict in Ukraine.
“This item is not in short supply. This is a situation of restricted supplies for some pretty good reasons “Professor and agricultural economist at Texas A&M David Anderson stated.
After a terrible year for U.S. flocks, wholesale turkey prices are at record highs. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a particularly lethal strain of avian flu, first detected in February on a turkey farm in Indiana, has killed out 49 million turkeys and other birds in 46 states this year.
Inflation and avian influenza drive up turkey costs at 02:12
As a result, turkey supplies per capita in the United States are at their lowest level since 1986, according to Mark Jordan, executive director of Leap Market Analytics in Jonesboro, Arkansas. In November, Jordan forecasts that the wholesale price of a frozen turkey hen weighing between 8 and 16 pounds — the type normally purchased for Thanksgiving — would reach $1.77 per pound, a 28% increase over the same month the previous year.
Jordan stated that there will still be ample entire birds for Thanksgiving dinners. In recent years, companies have shifted a greater proportion of birds into the market for whole turkeys to capitalize on the consistent Christmas demand.
And not every producer was harmed equally. Butterball, which produces around one-third of Thanksgiving turkeys, reported that avian flu had a little impact on its output because to the security measures it implemented after the 2015 outbreak.
However, it may be more difficult for consumers to find turkey breasts and other cuts, according to Jordan. And increased ham prices are leaving cooks with fewer inexpensive options, he said.
According to Anderson, avian influenza also drove egg prices to all-time highs. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, during the second week of November, a dozen Grade A eggs sold for an average of $2.28, more than double the price from the previous year.
Even without the virus, egg costs would have been higher, according to Anderson, due to the growing cost of corn and soybean meal used as chicken feed. The loss of Ukraine’s grain exports has caused global prices to skyrocket. Ukraine is a significant exporter of corn.
More costly pumpkins
A 30-ounce can of canned pumpkin is 17% more expensive than it was a year ago, according to market researcher Datassembly, thus it is evident that Thanksgiving pie will also be more expensive. Libby, which is owned by Nestle and produces 85 percent of the world’s canned pumpkin, reported that pumpkin harvests were comparable to prior years, but the company had to compensate for rising labor, shipping, fuel, and energy costs.
Plan to indulge in sides? This will also be costly. According to Datasemby, a 16-ounce box of stuffing costs 14% higher than it did last year. In the second week of November, a 5-pound bag of Russet potatoes averaged $3.26, or 45.5% more than the same time last year.
Craig Carlson, the CEO of Carlson Produce Consulting in Chicago, stated that this year’s potato development was severely curtailed by frost and a wet spring. Growers also increased prices to offset the increased cost of seeds, fertilizer, diesel fuel, and equipment. Some growers’ production expenses are up as much as 35% this year, an increase they cannot always recuperate, according to Carlson.
In addition to higher labor and food costs, the cost of ordering a cooked meal has increased. Whole Foods is promoting an eight-person Thanksgiving feast for $179.99. This is $40 more than the price advertised last year.
Positive year to dine out
Despite the fact that eating out is normally more expensive than cooking at home, going to a restaurant on Thanksgiving could be a relative bargain given the high pricing at grocery stores.
Restaurant prices have also increased, albeit at a slower rate. Wells Fargo analysts stated in a recent analysis that the cost of food at restaurants and other vendors increased by 5.8% between November 2021 and August 2022, however the cost of food at grocery stores or supermarkets increased by nearly 10% during the same period.
According to the analysis, which was based on data from the consumer price index, the cost of Thanksgiving-specific food items, such as eggs, flour, and fruits and vegetables, purchased in supermarkets has grown by 14.9% over the past decade.
The glad tidings? Not all of the items on Christmas shopping lists are markedly more expensive. According to Paul Mitchell, an agricultural economist and professor at the University of Wisconsin, prices for cranberries rose by less than 5 percent between the end of September and the beginning of November. According to the USDA, green beans cost only 2 cents extra per pound during the second week of November.
In the anticipation that consumers will spend more freely on other things, several grocery stores are reducing turkeys and other Christmas classics. Walmart promises turkeys for less than $1 per pound and says the prices for ham, potatoes, and stuffing will remain the same as last year. Additionally, Kroger and Lidl have reduced pricing, allowing consumers to purchase a supper for 10 for $5 or less per person. Aldi will return prices to 2019 levels.
However, Hays Culbreth is pessimistic over his casserole. On the way to his family’s Thanksgiving dinner, he decides to pick up a couple of pumpkin pies from the grocery store.