TAMPA — As spring training begins, let’s avoid the usual cliches associated with this time of year, such as every player being in the best shape of his life and the A’s and Reds mustering positive vibes in preparation for a 90-plus loss season.
Regarding the Yankees, we will disregard the beginning. Let’s skip eight months of wondering when Josh Donaldson will be released and when Giancarlo Stanton will have two stays on the injured list.
In the future, the Yankees defeated yet another inferior AL Central opponent in the Division Series, but as of Oct. 22, ALCS Game 6, they have been ousted by the Astros once more. Aaron Boone and Aaron Judge tell reporters that the team is so close to winning the World Series for the first time since 2009, and that it will be all the sweeter when they do.
This has beginning to resemble an episode of “Seinfeld”; we’ve watched all the episodes and it’s still moderately humorous, but blah, blah, blah.
To halt this cycle of despair, the Yankees must improve their baseball skills. They have mastered the macro: the 162-game chess match of amassing all the power hitters and power pitchers that a high salary permits. This is a variant of card counting at the blackjack table: With this style, you will win approximately sixty percent of your games and qualify for the postseason.
And while power bats and power arms certainly count in October — the team that hits the most home runs typically wins – this statistic, like many others, frequently lacks context. And what happens if your foundation is founded on power and it gets defused, and you have no alternative compensatory strategies? The playoffs are a smaller subset of games in which the worst opponents have been eliminated and offensive versatility, which the Yankees have lacked, is required.
This is not an attack on analytics. Regular October opponents of the Yankees, like as the Astros and Rays, are at least as analytically focused as they are. But in October, these clubs also perform better in the micro game. They utilize the scoreboard and the current situation more effectively than the Yankees. In last year’s ALCS Game 4 — the final game of the Yankees’ 2022 season — when Yuli Gurriel put the Astros ahead for the first time and Alex Bregman put them ahead for good, it was difficult to overlook that both right-handed batters were aiming for right field in RBI situations.
In comparison, Donaldson’s swing had become so large in October 2012 that he had a greater chance of winning Mr. Popularity in The Bronx than hitting a ball to right field. Hero ball has not been effective for the Yankees this October.
Permit me to take a brief detour since I believe it will be relevant to the main topic: I recently heard NBA analyst and author Kirk Goldsberry on Ryen Russillo’s show. Goldsberry was formerly employed by the Spurs. He remarked that it is difficult to implement detailed scouting reports from game to game throughout a lengthy regular season due to extensive travel, players’ waning interest, and varying player availability. Yet, the playoffs are unique. In the 2017 Western Conference semifinals against the Rockets, the whole Spurs organization — assistant coaches, analysts, etc. — was intent on creating a strategy to contain James Harden, and the players were 100 percent on board. They implemented a technique to keep their hands up and away from Harden’s torso to eliminate his signature 3-point foul-drawing move. It diminished his efficacy, and a team that relied on one man to dominate the ball for the entire regular season was eliminated.
Basketball to baseball is not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison, but the Yankees offense during Boone’s five-year tenure has been comparable to James Harden — one-dimensionally great in the regular season, but diminished in the postseason when inferior opponents have been eliminated and elite ones can unplug or reduce the impact of a team’s over-reliance on a single trait. The club has not increased its offensive repertoire all season, so where will it turn in crucial situations?
The Yankees rely heavily on right-handed home run hitters, making it difficult to game plan against them in June against the Royals and Tigers. In October, however, the Astros can deflate that offense; Houston didn’t even utilize a left-handed reliever in the ALCS. The Yankees batted.162 and hit three home runs in four games, with Harrison Bader hitting two of them. They were overrun.
The Yankees made a concerted effort to improve in all areas last season, and it paid off on defense, where they were terrific; they should be even better in 2023 with Bader starting the entire season at center. As the season went, though, they abandoned the running game and injuries to Andrew Benintendi, Matt Carpenter, and DJ LeMahieu hampered the left-right diversity and ball-in-play component of the roster. If all three players had been healthy for the ALCS, the outcome could have been altered. Two of the Yankees’ four consecutive losses were by one run, and one was by two runs.
Carpenter signed with the Padres over the summer, and the Yankees, on Hal Steinbrenner’s directive to keep under the top luxury tax threshold of $293 million, preferred signing Carlos Rodon over retaining Benintendi. When the Yankees need to acquire a guy similar to Benintendi between now and the August 1 trade deadline who will cost more prospect money, it would be foolish to not sign both players. That is, until Aaron Hicks unexpectedly becomes a productive left fielder or Oswaldo Cabrera proves he is real, albeit even proving to be real in left field would diminish the value of his versatility.
The Yankees can simply steam through another regular season and face déjà vu in the postseason. They led the AL in runs last season, but even that was a lie. So much of it was due to Judge’s remarkable season. What if he is simply very good once more?
The Yankees cannot simply utilize the 162 games as a laboratory. The AL East is the finest division in the majors, from top to bottom. By a lot. Yet, the Yankees have a championship-or-bust mentality. Thus, they cannot simply talk about having a balanced offensive and then become emotionally and/or physically fatigued and abandon it in the middle of the season.
This is the reason why Boone must keep his foot on the pedal.
Bader also is an exceptional baserunner. The offensive diversity offered by Oswald Peraza and/or Anthony Volpe requires the Yankees to incorporate them as quickly as possible. The data suggest that baserunners should not attempt to steal in front of Judge and Stanton in order to prevent a multi-run home run. This year, though, with larger bases and fewer pickoff attempts, it’s pointless to wait until October, especially because it won’t work again. Never seeing the worth of a base hit to right again when a single postseason run is so valuable will not work. Brian Cashman is under pressure to find more left-handed hitters because having too few won’t work again.
As usual, the Yankees entered spring training with a very strong roster. Yet they must use the six weeks in Tampa and the subsequent 162 games to improve their baseball play. Instead, we may as well skip to Judge and Boone describing how close they are to victory.
»The Yankees cannot believe their tried-and-true method will work this time«