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Do the Knicks have a problem in the fourth quarter?
In light of their 11-11 record in games decided by single digits — in which they won five of their first six and, more importantly, seven of their most recent 11 — a deeper look is warranted.
The fourth period has not been kind to the Knicks overall. After a dull, late-drama-free 116-105 defeat to the Wizards on Wednesday, they are being outscored by 2.4 points per 100 possessions in the final 12 minutes of regulation. This may not sound like much, but they are plus-2.4 for the season. Their offensive rating in the fourth quarter is significantly lower than their total game rating (114.5).
And over the recent period of losing seven of eleven single-digit games in the past 15 overall matchups, the fourth-quarter statistics have plummeted: a net rating of -10.5, an offensive rating of 111.7, and a defensive rating of 122.3. (compared to 112.2 on the season). During this span, these numbers rank 26th, 22nd, and 25th in the league, respectively.
Fred VanVleet’s nine fourth-quarter points on Monday helped the Raptors overcome a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit on way to a 123-121 victory in overtime.
NBAE Images via Getty
Since the 21st of December, the Knicks’ field-goal percentage defense has remained third in the NBA, holding opponents to 44.7 percent shooting. However, a significant issue has emerged: defensive rebounding. The Knicks conceded 14 offensive rebounds, including six in the fourth quarter and overtime, in a loss to the Raptors on Monday. This is the 19th-worst defensive rebounding percentage in the NBA during this timeframe.
Now, a variety of factors have emerged in several of these recent losses. Due to a hip injury, Jalen Brunson missed the Knicks’ post-Christmas losses to the Mavericks and Spurs. Brunson had been the Knicks’ closer. While recovering from a finger injury, RJ Barrett missed three defeats. If one of them had played in the Knicks’ loss to Dallas on December 27, when they lost a nine-point lead with 33.2 seconds remaining in regulation, they would have likely found a way to win. In losses against the Raptors on December 21 and the Bulls two days later, the Knicks’ poor free-throw shooting proved fatal.
Julius Randle, meanwhile, is having an outstanding season. He is a viable All-Star candidate, having shot the same percentage (45.5) and averaging a few more points (24.2) and rebounds (10.7) than in his breakout season two years ago. However, he has harmed the Knicks in the clutch, which is defined by the NBA as the final five minutes of any game in which neither team leads by more than five points. Randle is shooting a dismal 27.3 percent, 12.5 percent from 3-point range, 68.6 percent from the charity stripe, and averaging two points in 4.4 “critical” minutes each game.
Julius Randle has performed like an All-Star this season, with the exception of the minutes he plays in late fourth quarters in close games.
It represents his team. In “clutch” situations, the Knicks have a minus-7.6 net rating, a defensive rating of 120.5, and an offensive rating of 112.9, all of which are lower than their average ratings. They ranked dead last in assist ratio (10.2) and defensive rebounding percentage (64.6). During the current 15-game span, these figures are even worse: a net rating of -32.1, a defensive rating of 132.1, and an offensive rating of 100.
A portion of this can be ascribed to the games Barrett and Brunson missed, or it can be discounted as a tiny sample size. But not entirely In close games, the Knicks have not been the same club. This is why they have a poor 7-8 record following their December winning streak of eight games.
Too few appearances for Grimes
Quentin Grimes is the Knicks’ second-best 3-point shooter based on %. Only Jalen Brunson, at 39.7 percent, has a better percentage than the second-year guard’s 37 percent on 5.3 attempts a game from beyond the arc, and 45.2 percent overall on field-goal attempts. The bottom line is that when he has the ball in his possession and is aggressive, positive outcomes are common. But recently, this has becoming less frequent.
Quentin Grimes has been one of the Knicks’ most efficient 3-point shooters; yet, he has not had many opportunities to demonstrate this in recent games.
In Monday’s overtime loss to the Raptors, Grimes attempted only five shots over the course of forty minutes. Despite playing 34.9 minutes per game over the past nine contests, he has only attempted 10 shots four times. This is partially due to teams’ increased knowledge of Grimes. They are assisting him significantly less, which is generating more space on the court and more possibilities for Knicks players Brunson and Randle. In addition, the Knicks do not run plays for Grimes. He takes his shots inside the flow of the offense, which has been isolation-heavy and devoid of ball movement as of late. They are averaging 17.9 assists over their last nine games, a decrease from their season average of 22.3.
In a game like Monday’s, where Brunson and Randle combined to shoot 18-of-49 and clearly weren’t at their best, the Knicks would benefit from spreading the ball around more. It would have been advantageous if one of their greatest shooters had taken more than five shots in forty minutes. The Knicks have a record of 12-5 when Grimes scores double figures. In other words, the Knicks perform better whenever he is involved in the offense. Too frequently in recent years, this has not been the case.
The absence of offensive punch from the Knicks’ bench is getting increasingly difficult to overlook.
Take away Immanuel Quickley, who is essentially their sixth starter, is completely ineffective. Even with Quickley’s offensive productivity — he is averaging a career-high 12.5 points per game — their bench production of 29.2 points per game ranks 27th in the NBA, near the bottom of the league. In the past 15 games, the Knicks’ bench has scored the fewest points (18.3), however a portion of this can be attributed to Quickley starting seven games due to injury.
Obi Toppin’s problems are a notable concern. After advancing last season, he has regressed this year, scoring only 6.6 points and shooting a career-worst 40.2% from the field. He has not scored in double figures since November 13. Note that Toppin has only recently returned after missing 13 games with a non-displaced right fibula fracture. The Knicks need the young forward with explosive potential to rediscover his game. They have become overly dependent on Brunson, Randle, and Barrett to carry their offense. It was evident in Randle’s recent two losses that he was not at his best.
»The data and trends underlying the Knicks’ crippling failures in the clutch«