Mr Blake added: ‘Whatever happens, I think there will be a lot of volatility and people need to be prepared for that. And I think it’s only fair to say that to students so that it’s not a shock to them.’
His comments come as research by the Daily Mail reveals fierce rivalry to acquire the property. On the day of A-level results, competition for courses will be the toughest it has been in years, with some forecasting the most intense competition in living memory.
In only two years, the number of last-minute courses offered at premier Russell Group colleges has decreased by half, according to the data.
Those who fail to get the required grades for their first-choice programme are likely to encounter more disappointment while attempting to enrol in an alternate programme.
Alan Smithers, professor of education at Buckingham University, said: ‘It will be one of the most competitive years, and probably the most competitive year ever.’
And Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at the University of Exeter, warned: ‘If students drop a grade when they get their results, they will have to really fight for places. The guarantees of previous years will no longer be in place.’
Mr Elliot Major said even pupils who achieve high grades will find it harder to secure desirable Clearing courses, warning: ‘High-achieving students will have to hustle for places. For those who miss their grades, it could have big consequences for their futures.’
Teenagers will get their A-level results on Thursday for the first time since the start of the epidemic that they took their examinations in the regular manner.
However, up to 60,000 students are anticipated to fall short of required grade levels.
Clearing is a second opportunity for students to earn a university seat; the Ucas website matches them with vacant degree programmes.
This year, a record number of 18-year-olds have applied for elite positions, which will result in fewer open elite positions. Universities are likewise attempting to reestablish population control after a two-year increase.
Many schools urged thousands of A-level students to delay their enrollment last year so that they might enrol this year.
Mr Elliot Major added: ‘There’s a limited number of places and that’s been fuelled by the fact universities over-recruited last year. There’s also a demographic boom in 18-year-olds.’
Yesterday, university administrators cautioned that a push to attract profitable overseas students may also be adding to the strain.
While the number of foreign students at Russell Group universities has increased, the percentage of British students rejected by these schools has increased.
A Daily Mail study shows that as of the end of last week, just 2,353 full-time undergraduate degree programmes were being marketed via Clearing at 17 of the 24 Russell Group institutions in England prior to results day.
The number of accessible courses has decreased by 24% since a comparable poll was conducted five days before to A-level results day last year.
In 2021, there were openings in 3,085 degree programmes at 15 major institutions in England through Clearing.
The number of top courses in Clearing has decreased by 48 percent since 2020, when 4,509 were advertised at 17 Russell Group institutions one week before to the release of A-level results.
Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI), said of the squeeze: ‘It is for a mix of reasons – such as universities overexpanding in the past couple of years and now wanting to dial it down, A-level grade deflation, more applicants and so on.
‘Some of the pain has already been experienced however, in the sense that these uber-selective universities were tougher when making their offers.
In conclusion, there may be more individuals who believe the university admissions system has rough edges and who must accept attending an institution that was not their first choice when they filled out their Ucas form.
In 2018, a record-breaking 44.8% of submissions were rated A or A*, compared to 38.6% in 2020 and 25.5% in 2019.
In 2021, around 19.1% of submissions received A* grades, up from 14.4% in 2020 and 7.8% in 2019.
Ofqual has indicated that this year’s grade boundaries will be established approximately between 2019 pre-pandemic levels and 2021, when teacher evaluations will have been used to determine grades.
Mr. Smithers presented a study titled Return to Exams on Saturday, in which he anticipated that around 13.5% of submissions would get an A* and 35% will receive an A or A*. These numbers amount to around 82,500 less A* and A grades than the previous year.
The research said that if each impacted applicant loses an average of two grades, more than 40,000 “will be at risk of losing their preferred place.” However, this number might reach 60,000.
The total university application rate for 18-year-olds in the United Kingdom has reached a record high of 44.1%.
Ucas data indicates that the percentage of applications that resulted in an offer from high tariff institutions, such as the Russell Group, has decreased from 60.5% in 2021 to 55.1% this summer.
Mark Corver, co-founder of the dataHE consultancy and former head of analysis and research at Ucas, told the Times Higher Education website that this year, higher-tariff institutions rejected an unprecedented number of applications.
And even low- and medium-rate universities with less severe admittance standards have “unusually dropped their offer rate.”
He told the Daily Mail that students may need to be ‘a bit more flexible on subject or university that in previous years’.
He added: ‘We do not see any signs in the data that these pressures will ease in coming years.
‘Sometimes there are good reasons to try again the next year, but if students are considering waiting another year solely in the hope that the supply/demand balance will shift in their favour they may end up disappointed.’
Ucas chief executive Clare Marchant said: ‘For a student who find themselves without their firm or insurance choice, or if they have changed their mind, there is plenty of choice available.
‘Ucas will help students explore degree courses alongside other opportunities such as degree and higher apprenticeships.’
A Russell Group spokesman said it will be ‘a competitive year’ but universities are ‘working hard to give as many people the opportunity to study with them as they can’.
He added: ‘Despite the increased competition, we’re pleased that Ucas predicts record numbers will get their first choice this year on results days, and there are lots of options available to those who are unplaced or choose to go through Clearing, including at most Russell Group universities.’
As of the time of the Mail’s survey, seven Russell Group universities had no courses in Clearing: Bristol, Cambridge, Durham, Imperial College London, Oxford, the London School of Economics and UCL (University College London).
Glasgow and Leeds had just four courses advertised in Clearing and Birmingham, five.
Oxford and Cambridge never usually enter Clearing.
Bristol University said it had no clearing vacancies for 2022 and Imperial College London said it would ‘not be recruiting through clearing this year’.
UCL said any clearing vacancies will be advertised at 8am on results day but warned that ‘it is unlikely’ to have any.
Durham University also said any vacancies would be advertised on the Ucas site after 8am on Thursday.
In a letter to prospective students, Ms Marchant and chief regulator of Ofqual, Dr Jo Saxton, have sought to reassure them about their results.
They added that it was ‘not meaningful’ to compare this year’s results to the 2021 results, because it was ‘a different form of assessment.’
The letter says: ‘In 2019, when exams last went ahead, around three quarters of UK 18-year-old applicants were placed at their first choice. Come results day this year, UCAS again expects most students will secure their place at their first choice.
‘Universities understood what grades will look like overall this year and took this into account when making offers. It’s not meaningful to compare this year’s results to those in 2021, because it was a different form of assessment.
‘If you don’t get the grades for your first choice, you may still be accepted by your university of choice, for example, if you are a grade lower than your offer.’
City & Guilds, which produces technical qualifications, has urged school leavers to consider alternative routes to university.
It revealed figures showing 40 per cent of pupils want to go to university, but only 29 per cent of UK jobs need a degree level qualification.
It said some students may be taking on ‘unnecessary debt without a clear onward trajectory’ and may be ‘putting their future at risk’.
