As the Ukraine’s dramatic counteroffensive against Russia’s military gains speed, so are fears that a desperation-fueled Vladimir Putin may unleash nuclear Armageddon.
In recent days, Ukrainian forces have made spectacular advances on two fronts, penetrating Russian defenses in the crucial province of Kherson and threatening to cut off Russian supply lines.
The tide has shifted in this seven-month-long conflict. On the’verge of collapse,’ as the former national security adviser of the White House, General H. R. McMaster, described it, the dictator is running out of choices.
Today, Vladimir Putin turns 70, but he has little to celebrate. His bloated cheeks, uneven walk, and slumped posture have sparked rumors of a grave disease, including cancer. Putin has run out of time, good fortune, and options. Only a swift triumph can spare him from certain death. Therefore, there are frantic worries of nuclear escalation.
Recently, the Russian ruler has regularly jingled his nuclear saber. But experts are growing increasingly concerned that he is serious this time.
This week, a potentially maliciously leaked video appeared on the social networking platform Telegram. It depicted an armored vehicle convoy passing through what appeared to be central Russia. Instantaneously, the Internet was rife with rumors that the army movement signaled the activation of Russia’s nuclear weapons program.
Today, the elderly Russian president is 70, but he has little to celebrate. His bloated cheeks, uneven walk, and slumped posture have sparked rumors of a grave disease, including cancer.
Putin has run out of time, good fortune, and options. Only a swift triumph can spare him from certain death. As a result, irrational concerns of nuclear escalation exist.
This week, a potentially maliciously leaked video appeared on the social networking platform Telegram. It depicted an armored vehicle convoy passing through what appeared to be central Russia. Instantaneously, the Internet was rife with rumors that the troop movement signified the activation of Russia’s nuclear weapons program.
The Belgorod, a Russian nuclear submarine armed with both intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and, it is believed, the Poseidon nuclear underwater drone — which could submerge Western cities by causing a catastrophic tsunami — has reportedly set sail.
The deployment of nuclear submarines is routine, but the timing is ominous.
In this context, it is understandable why Polish President Andrzej Duda urged to American President Joe Biden on Wednesday to relocate U.S. nuclear weapons to Poland.
Recently, the Russian ruler has regularly jingled his nuclear saber. But an increasing number of experts worry he is serious this time.
This week, British veteran Major-General Jonathan Shaw stated, “Putin has nowhere to go.” Therefore, we should anticipate nuclear weapons.
General Lord Dannatt, the former leader of the British Army, has stated that Putin could launch a nuclear missile “into a desert… just to prove he’s serious”
Lloyd Austin, the defense secretary of the United States, feels that there are currently “no checks” on Putin and that he may make another “irresponsible action.” Nato issued a warning that a missile test including a fake warhead could be imminent in the Kara Sea, north of the Russian peninsula in the Arctic.
In the meantime, Kyiv has announced that it will distribute potassium iodide pills, which prevent the absorption of damaging radiation by the thyroid gland, to evacuation centres in preparation for a nuclear assault.
Then, might Putin truly be plotting the inconceivable? Or is he simply trying to convince us that he is?
A great deal may depend on the capability and allegiance of a single Russian military unit.
The big convoy of armored vehicles sighted on a train this week is believed to be under the jurisdiction of the Defense Ministry’s 12th Main Directorate.
This week, British veteran Major-General Jonathan Shaw stated, “Putin has nowhere to go.” Therefore, we should anticipate nuclear weapons. Ukrainian army depicted moving on Russian fortifications
Then, might Putin truly be plotting the inconceivable? Or is he simply trying to convince us that he is?
This innocuous-sounding name conceals its destructive potential. Lavrentiy Beria, Stalin’s feared leader of the secret police, established the mysterious department in 1947 to manage the research, manufacturing, storage, deployment, and distribution of Russia’s huge nuclear weapons.
This includes about 6,000 warheads, somewhat more than the United States’ 5,400, protected by the directorate’s own private army, including mine-resistant BPM-97 armored vehicles.
The 12th Directorate is headquartered in a nondescript office building in Moscow and maintains bases around Russia. Thousands of scientists, engineers, technicians, and logistical experts struggle to reinforce the Kremlin’s faltering claim to global superpower status.
Since its founding, the Directorate’s worldview has evolved little. In fact, an ex-boss has described the democratic changes of the late 1980s as “the disintegration of the state.”
Absolute secrecy is maintained. Virtually nothing is known about Igor Kolesnikov, the Directorate’s head since 2017 and presumably a nuclear weapons expert by trade.
Yet, similar to other components of the Kremlin’s military apparatus, the 12th Directorate has been afflicted by major incidents. Five technicians were killed and several were severely irradiated in 2019 while rescuing a nuclear-powered missile.
Russia’s most significant accomplishment in recent years has been the expansion of its ‘tactical’ (short-range) nuclear arsenal, which includes artillery shells, depth charges, and rockets.
Moscow has also constructed and tested a ground-launched cruise missile, a weapon banned under the 1987 arms-control agreement that ended the nuclear standoff in Europe during the Cold War.
There is no disputing the terrifying potential of this apocalyptic arsenal, but thankfully, I believe a nuclear exchange between Putin and the West is still some years away.
First, there is little certainty regarding the significance of the convoy of trucks travelling through central Russia.
Much may depend on the competence and commitment of a single Russian military unit.
Other units use the same armored vehicles. As Russian generals struggle to halt the Ukrainian assault, they assemble battalions from around the country.
This could include the ‘counter-sabotage’ forces of the 12th Directorate, but not the nuclear weapons themselves.
I have spent the majority of the last four decades studying Kremlin decision-making. Even though I am deeply concerned about Putin’s paranoid attitude, we must recognize that the actual battle — at least against NATO — is being waged on our collective nerves. And it’s only going to get worse.
Putin typically uses the autumnal ‘Grom’ [Thunder] nuclear exercises to demonstrate his country’s nuclear capabilities. This trend will continue this year.
Threatening to unleash Armageddon is one thing, but according to Russian military doctrine, nuclear weapons may be detonated only in reaction to a nuclear strike, and in a conventional conflict only if the nation faces a “existential” threat.
Putin’s blunders in Ukraine and his imperial ambitions being thwarted are surely humiliating. Nobody is however attempting to destroy Russia.
Equally important, Putin cannot launch an attack at will because the Russian system contains human and other safeguards to limit a deranged or rash leader.
There is also uncertainty on the effectiveness of Russia’s nuclear weapons. Western and Chinese intelligence have meticulously examined the Kremlin’s nuclear command and control system, as well as its potential for sabotage.
Any use of nuclear weapons by Putin, no matter how restricted or remote from the conflict or NATO territory, would result in devastating retaliation. In the midst of global panic and rage, Russia would immediately confront isolation similar to that of North Korea.
David Petraeus, a retired U.S. general and former CIA director, stated last week that a U.S.-led NATO response would ‘destroy every Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine, Crimea, and the Black Sea.’
Our cyber arsenal would also be employed. A U.S. president could instruct computer firms like Microsoft, Apple, and Google to deactivate virtually every electronic device in Russia, bringing the economy to a screeching halt.
Putin would be worse off if he played the nuclear card, according to any reasonable estimate.
Putin’s situation would deteriorate if he played the nuclear card, according to any realistic calculation.
Only if the United States and Russia exchange strategic nuclear weapons is Russia a viable match for the United States. However, any nation that engages in such a contest will become a smoking wasteland by its conclusion.
Even while the stakes are enormous, we must view Russia’s maneuvers and mind games with a healthy dose of skepticism and confront Putin’s psychotic threats.