This summer’s intense heat in the United States has broken records, with some locations exceeding 110 degrees. Utah residents endured 16 consecutive days of triple-digit temperatures, the longest such stretch in 125 years of record-keeping. Extreme temperatures have killed hundreds in Asia and Europe throughout the globe.
This ominous depiction of the present is likely just the beginning. A new research by the First Street Foundation anticipates a “hot belt” reaching from the Gulf Coast to Chicago by the middle of the 21st century, with almost one-third of U.S. citizens living in areas that endure dangerously high temperatures.
The non-profit research organization obtained surface temperature data using a peer-reviewed approach that utilizes data from satellites and meteorological stations that are accessible to the public. It then predicted future temperatures under a global warming scenario known as RCP 4.5, in which emissions of fossil fuels peak around 2040 and subsequently fall.
“Heat temperatures that kill”
Today, around 50 counties in the United States encounter one day per year with a heat index exceeding 125 degrees, which the National Weather Service classifies as highly hazardous. First Street predicts that in thirty years, more than a thousand counties, comprising 107 million people, would be in the danger zone.
First Street Foundation’s principal research officer, Jeremy Porter, told CBS MoneyWatch, “We were astonished by the appearance of that heat belt; these are fatal heat temps if exposed for an extended period.” “At 125 degrees, heat stroke is probable.”
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Summertime humidity that often builds up in the centre of the continent is a key factor in the occurrence of dangerous heat index values. It is more difficult to cool down by sweating under humid conditions because the rate of evaporation decreases. Because of this, the heat index, or how hot a day “feels,” is determined by a combination of temperature and humidity.
Because warm air can store more moisture, the humidity rises as the temperature continues to rise. For every 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature, the air contains around 7% extra water vapor.
The location of the industrial Midwest, which is positioned east of the Rocky Mountains and inland, renders it particularly susceptible to a buildup of hot air.
“This specific region is not next to water, thus it is not cooled by the breeze that blows over the lake. And because of the low altitude, the humidity is trapped “Porter explained.
The risk zone encompasses large cities such as Louisville, Kentucky; Kansas City, Kansas; Memphis and Nashville, Tennessee; St. Louis, Missouri; and Tulsa, Oklahoma; and extends to Chicago. Due to a lack of vegetation and the heat-trapping properties of construction materials such as concrete, black pavement, and roofs, cities experience a “heat island effect” in which urban temperatures become substantially higher than those of the surrounding countryside.
The Inflation Reduction Act, which was approved by the House last week, promises to put the United States near to its target of halving greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, but not quite there. In spite of this, reducing global temperatures will take a considerable amount of time since many of the impacts of climate change are “baked in” as a result of past fossil fuel emissions.
Humans can adapt and adjust to higher temperatures. To do so, however, would need many communities and governments that have not previously faced with extreme heat – the main cause of weather-related fatalities — to evaluate and prepare for it. This more intense future will likely include physical adaptation — planting more trees and installing cool roofs, for example — as well as preparation for emergency heat events, such as checking on inhabitants, establishing cooling facilities, and ensuring that people can access them.
Kristie Ebi, a public-health specialist at the University of Washington, told CBS MoneyWatch, “There’s so much that can be done; there are various hot-weather warning systems across the globe.” It is not necessary to start from scratch, but it would be great if local and state authorities made the process simpler.