A shocking new poll indicates that if a general election were to be called tomorrow, Labour would gain a 314-seat majority in the House of Commons.
Sir Keir Starmer’s party would win an astounding 482 seats, according to a new MRP seat estimate from Savanta, while the Conservatives would be reduced to only 69 MPs.
Labour would gain more than twice as many MPs as they already do, while the Tories would suffer a humiliating loss worse than that in 1997.
The polling company predicted that the Conservatives will lose every seat in northern England and suffer significant losses in London and the South West.
It demonstrated that even the incumbent prime minister, Rishi Sunak, would lose the Yorkshire district of Richmond, which the Conservatives had controlled since 1910.
On March 1, 2019, the exact third anniversary of Boris Johnson’s celebration of the Tories’ 80-seat victory in the 2019 general election, the MRP model was released.
Polling specialists cautioned against relying too much on the MRP model’s results, Savanta’s first since the Labour Party conference in September.
If Mr. Sunak reduces the Tories’ polling deficit with Labour, the actual outcome of the next general election “may look quite different,” they said.
The results of a different survey, done by Deltapoll and released today, which indicated the Tories had reduced Labour’s advantage to 13 percentage points would further encourage Conservative MPs worried about losing their seats.
When compared to their previous survey from last week, Deltapoll reports that the Tories are up four points to 32% while Labour is down three points to 45%.
In a poll this month by Electoral Calculus using Savanta’s MRP model, 48% of people indicated they would support Labour in a general election, while 28% said they would back the Conservatives.
According to the modeling, if a general election were conducted tomorrow, the SNP would gain seven more seats.
As a result, all but four of Scotland’s 59 Westminster districts would belong to Nicola Sturgeon’s party.
And the Liberal Democrats would increase their representation in parliament to 21, which would be the most since 2010.
The MRP model for this month, according to Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, mirrored the decline in Tories’ popularity after the fall of Liz Truss’s government.
The last time we released an MRP model, I discussed both the possibility and the precariousness of the 56-seat majority and the 12-point lead the poll it provided the Labour Party at their convention.
Because of the ensuing Conservative collapse and the fact that even the most hopeful Labour fan could not have predicted it, the most recent MRP model accurately depicts the current situation of two parties with drastically different electoral chances.
However, we must continue to urge prudence. This model predicts that several Labour-winning seats, including those that would be considered “Red Walls,” nevertheless have a 40% or greater probability of becoming Conservative.
“And although it would have little bearing on the final outcome of the election, it does demonstrate that if Rishi Sunak can keep cutting into the Labour advantage, point by point, the final results in 2024 may not resemble those predicted by our nowcast model at all.”
Since this is the first MRP conducted since the Conservatives fell so far behind Labour, there isn’t much to compare it to, according to Electoral Calculus creator Martin Baxter.
Applying uniform national swing (UNS) to the general election baseline for 2019 yields different findings than MRP.
The Conservatives would get roughly 24 more seats under the UNS estimate than under this scenario.
We are in unknown political seas, and uncertainty is more than normal. Previous elections imply that MRP is often more accurate than UNS projections.
From December 2 through December 5, Savanta conducted online interviews with 6,237 British individuals. Electoral Calculus combined the results into a multi-regression and poststratification (MRP) model.
1,088 British individuals were questioned by Deltapoll between December 9 and 12.
»New survey shows Labour will win 314 seats and the Tories 69«