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It was a game the Giants needed to win to end their winless streak and revitalize their prospects of making the playoffs. It was a drive the Giants had to finish with points if they were to extend their 7-3 advantage over the Commanders late in the second quarter of last Sunday’s game. It was a down-and-distance for which no statistical metric would indicate a high proportion of success.
Tension was rising, and a split-second decision was required. However, when the moment of truth arrived, Brian Daboll acknowledged that there was not much hand-wringing.
“That fourth down that we went for there, that was already…we knew we would go for that in that particular situation after my morning meeting with those players on Wednesday,” Daboll explained.
Ty Siam is the director of football data and innovation for the Giants, while Cade Knox is the offensive assistant/game manager. Knox is a member of Daboll’s coaching staff while Siam is a member of general manager Joe Schoen’s front office. Daboll credited them multiple times in the hours and days following the Giants’ 20-12 victory at FedEx Field, which dramatically improved the team’s chances of making the playoffs for the first time since 2016 and only the second time since 2011.
Brian Daboll was quick to credit the Giants’ analytics team with influencing his decision to go for a long 4th-and-9 convert in Washington, which led to the team’s second score.
“Everyone contributed to the victory,” remarked Daboll. “Those two men clearly played a significant role. Two Ivy League graduates, so I attempt to listen to them.
Listening to smart folks is usually a good idea, so long as the smart guys agree to put the team first and provide information that will be utilized to inform rather than persuade.
The Giants’ chances of converting a 4th-and-9 at the Washington 35-yard line with 2:23 remaining before halftime on Sunday were slim. Consider that only two of their ten third-down efforts were successful during the game.
The Giants’ alternate possibilities were not significantly superior.
Graham Gano would have had to attempt a field goal from 53 yards out. Despite the fact that he made two 50-yard field goals later in the game and that he possesses an exceptionally strong leg, it was believed that he was somewhat limited in his ability to kick field goals beyond 50 yards, especially outdoors in the cold on a natural grass surface that has historically been difficult for kickers.
The uncertainty surrounding Graham Gano’s 53-yard field goal attempt before halftime influenced the Giants’ decision to go for it on 4th-and-9.
The act of kicking the ball away would not have likely brought Daboll much happiness. Jamie Gillan may have been able to place the ball inside the 10-yard line, but he could have just as easily thrown it into the end zone for a touchback, which would have placed the Commanders on their 20-yard line and saved the Giants only 15 yards.
Even after deciding to go for it, Daboll’s options were not perfect. On fourth-down tries, coaches typically have a run-pass option, and the distance required to achieve a first down is typically one or two yards. The only option available on fourth-and-9 is a pass play, but offensive coordinator Mike Kafka’s call produced the intended results. Daniel Jones was not required to maintain possession of the ball for too long. At the two-minute warning, Richie James made a fast cut to the outside, and Jones delivered the pass on target while under pressure, connecting with James in stride for an 11-yard gain to the Washington 24-yard line. Three plays later, Saquon Barkley scored from three yards out to give the Giants a 14-3 lead, capping off a monumental 18-play, 97-yard drive.
A conversion on fourth down always makes an offensive-minded head coach appear prudent. Daboll acknowledged his midweek sessions with Siam and Knox with facilitating his decision.
“We [meet] every week, every single week,” Daboll remarked. Therefore, you cannot predict when these things will arise or how they will develop. On fourth-and-3, do you go for it or do you do this? There are numerous different occurrences. Do you engage in conversation during the game? Yeah. I have access to the special teams line. I have access to an offensive line. I possess a line leading to defense. In addition, I have a line to Cade and Ty. We spend a great deal of time on it due to the amount of debate and research that I’d estimate the two of them conduct before sitting down with me.
Late in the second quarter, Richie James’ 11-yard reception on fourth down allowed the Giants to continue a drive that would result in a 14-3 advantage.
AP
“There are many numbers and percentages, as well as genuine discussions regarding the players or matchups. I don’t believe you can point to a single action and say, “This is what you do.” I believe that you must have a feel for the game, for your opponent, for the matchup, and, if something is different, for the weather. Therefore, we are always in regular communication and strive to accomplish what is in our best interests.
Siam, who graduated from Cornell with a degree in Policy Analysis & Management, has worked with the Giants since 2015. Three years ago, he was promoted to his current position as part of previous general manager Dave Gettleman’s initiative to enhance the data and analytics departments. Siam also played football for the Big Red.
When Daboll arrived, Knox was an intern in the football data and innovation department, having earned a degree in psychology from Harvard, where he also played football for the Crimson. Knox graduated from Harvard two years ago with a degree in psychology, where he also played football for the Crimson. Knox was added to the coaching staff to assist Daboll in incorporating analytics into his in-game decisions.
Every NFL head coach regularly consults with analytics staff members. Daboll’s designation of Knox as “game manager” demonstrates a readiness to delegate without fear of relinquishing perceived or actual control. Daboll makes the ultimate decision, but he is also comfortable admitting that others have a hand in this and he does not have all the answers.
In terms of management, clock management, fourth-down decisions, and overtime decisions, Daboll relies heavily on these two players throughout the week.
Schoen and Daboll are in agreement about this.
Both Joe Schoen and Daboll believe that talking with the Giants’ analytics department is a vital element of developing the weekly game plan.
“I believe in it,” Schoen stated. “We will continue to push the envelope to identify any tool that can help us win games or offer us a competitive advantage,” the coach said.
However, Daboll appears to be less susceptible to being influenced by the data he receives than younger head coaches who, at times, appear to be obsessed with numbers. Consider his choice to attempt a two-point conversion after the Giants had closed to within 20-19 with one minute remaining in Nashville earlier this season. No group of statisticians could convince him that going for two was anything other than a 50/50 proposition. This season, teams in the NFL are 48-for-101 on two-point conversions, or 48 percent. The Giants are 2-for-4, or 50%. Nonetheless, the team called for a shovel pass to Barkley, which resulted in the game-winning scores.
Daboll accepts the unfamiliar, but does not disregard his intuition and gut feelings. He employs the information as a guide, but not as gospel. Several members of the team’s Football Data and Innovation team, including Ben Burress, Matthew Dodson, Clark Ewen, Courtney Kennedy, and Maxwell Kirin, have also contributed significantly.
“Other people are working back there in the room known as the NASA room,” Daboll stated. These young women and men are extremely intelligent.
Daboll consults with Siam and Knox in order to gain as much information as possible in order to make the most informed decisions possible on game day.
Before Daboll hired him, Giants offensive assistant Cade Knox was an intern in the team’s data and innovation department.
AP
I would say that the sessions I have with these two persons are quite detailed and well-planned, as stated by Daboll. “And I’m always asking the questions I believe I need to ask because there are some elements that, in my opinion, must be combined. It is not enough to say, “This is the actual number. What you should do is this. There is a sense of game. There is a “How are things?” There is a look in the eyes of your players. There is climate. There are matches.
“We can discuss it all day, but if one of your offensive lineman is really suffering against another player, you must make a decision. As a result, I rely heavily on them and trust in them, but I also believe that, as a coach, you must ensure that you understand the word ‘feel.’ You are essentially watching your team, as well as the matchups, game flow, score, and scenario. I believe there are so many factors involved. Thus, it’s not as simple as “two times two equals four.” There are other considerations that must be made.
And having coached in the NFL since the year 2000 (excluding one year when he directed the Alabama offense), Daboll, 47, has a variety of experiences that inform his decisions.
“They may go through a few sheets,” Daboll remarked of Siam and Knox, “and I may go back and say, ‘Well, wait on. If we’re behind by this much, I’ll take one. I am aware of the statistics, but I would rather give my team a chance to win by attempting a two-point convert. There is a lot of conversation, so there is nice give-and-take. I have the highest regard for these two individuals. They have been a tremendous asset to our football squad, and I am delighted we have them.
asked and responded
Here are two recent inquiries that we will strive to respond to as correctly as possible:
The Colts led 33-0 at halftime, but the Vikings staged the biggest comeback in NFL history to win 39-36 in overtime. Is this a positive or negative development for the Giants?
Is it preferable to face a team coming off a devastating defeat or a monumental victory? Tough to say. If the Vikings had not come back and went down in one-sided fashion, at home, they certainly would have been extra-motivated to take all that frustration and embarrassment out on the Giants this Saturday. We would have heard how ravenous and thirsty for vengeance the Vikings were. On the flip side, the incredible comeback also could be a motivating force for the Vikings, catapulting them through the last few games of the season. It’s also possible that scoring 39 points in the second half and overtime might have taken so much out of the Vikings that they are a bit flat against the Giants.
It’s hard to predict how the Vikings will bounce back against the Giants after pulling off the biggest comeback in NFL history last weekend.
Brian Daboll does not appear very happy in his press conferences after he wins a game. He also does not look particularly ticked off after a loss. What is his deal?
His deal is different from many other head coaches. “I just don’t believe in riding roller coasters,’’ Daboll said, adding, “I did when I was younger a little bit, I rode it.’’
You can see Daboll showing all sorts of emotion on the sideline -—at times he looks ready to blow — but whatever emotion is brewing inside of him, he processes it and deals with it and then he quiets it once he steps behind the microphone. He says this is all about staying consistent: “I know it is not flashy, but that’s just what I believe in.’’
Fans usually want to see the head coach appearing as disappointed and ticked off as they are after a bad loss; Daboll does not give you that. Fans enjoy seeing the head coach reveling in the moment after a big win; Daboll does not really give you that, either. It is an interesting choice on his part.
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