Fifth wave update: FIVE encouraging signs from SA’s latest COVID data

Research from our top COVID experts has painted a clear picture of where this fifth wave is heading. Although new infections and test positivity levels have jumped in recent weeks, indicators from Gauteng – and even further afield – may put a few concerned minds at ease.

• The growth rate for the seven-day averages of new cases appears to have ‘reached a peak’ in SA’s most densely-populated province.
• According to NICD data, all hospital variables in Gauteng ‘declined marginally’ in the last 24 hours.
• This follows a national pattern identified by the CSIR’s Ridhwaan Suliman, who noted that hospitalisation rates had ‘slowed’ in the past week.
• Although deaths are increasing in Gauteng, COVID expert Pieter Streicher says this is only by ‘a very low amount’.
• When compared to the same point of the Omicron wave, there are FEWER cases, hospitalisations, and ICU beds. That’s great news…

Gauteng, South Africa #Omicron BA.4 BA.5 update.

Cases (7d avg by reported date) are flatlining, while all hospital variables declined marginally in the last 24 hours.

Deaths remain well below December levels, increasing slowly.

data source: https://t.co/LSc0q6kFwG pic.twitter.com/TbLvNo6zkd

— pieterstreicher (@pieterstreicher) May 9, 2022

Streicher, a research associate for the University of Johannesburg, is confident in his assessment that the fifth wave is now running out of steam. He believes this will be the ‘blueprint’ for further resurgences elsewhere, with December’s Omicron peak remaining unchallenged:

“Gauteng is giving some indication of what other countries can expect with future resurgences in the absence of a new variant other than Omicron. Although Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 deaths will increase a bit further, the wave attenuation since Delta is significant.”

“All COVID variables we are seeing now are well below December’s original Omicron levels, which were well below July’s Delta levels. Experts continue to call for the dropping of restrictions, which are at odds with our current understanding of the pandemic.”

Pieter Streicher