…By Henry George for TDPel Media.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has announced the formation of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean.
This weather system is anticipated to gradually strengthen in the Northern Hemisphere during the upcoming winter.
Scientists predict that El Niño will contribute to making the following year the hottest on record, potentially pushing global temperatures beyond the critical 1.5°C climate threshold.
Alongside rising temperatures, El Niño could lead to drought conditions in Australia, while heavy rainfall may occur in southern US states and parts of South America.
Understanding El Niño and La Niña
El Niño and La Niña are natural climate fluctuations within the Earth’s climate system, known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
These terms, meaning “little boy” and “little girl” in Spanish, respectively, were coined by South American fishermen in the 1600s who noticed unusual warm-water periods.
Initially called El Niño de Navidad (meaning “Christmas” in Spanish), El Niño often reaches its peak around December.
During El Niño, sea surface temperatures rise in the central-east equatorial Pacific, leading to warmer-than-average conditions in the tropical eastern Pacific.
Conversely, La Niña occurs when sea surface temperatures drop below average, resulting in cooler-than-average weather in the same region.
Neutral phases occur when temperatures align with long-term averages.
Impacts of El Niño and La Niña
El Niño and La Niña have global impacts on weather patterns.
El Niño can increase the likelihood of cold winters in the UK while inhibiting the development of tropical storms in the North Atlantic.
These phases can last from approximately nine months to a few years.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Earth has been experiencing La Niña conditions for the past three years, temporarily tempering the long-term warming trend.
However, La Niña ended in March 2023, and El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months.
There is a 98 percent probability of at least one of the next five years setting temperature records, with the next five years projected to be hotter on average than the past five years.
Concerns over Climate Threshold Breach
Scientists have issued warnings that the world could surpass the critical 1.5°C climate threshold by 2027.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) conducted research indicating a high likelihood of record-breaking temperatures in the next five years.
Both human activity and the emerging El Niño system are attributed to the escalating global temperatures.
The WMO’s Secretary-General, Professor Petteri Taalas, emphasized the potential consequences of a warming El Niño, stating that it would combine with human-induced climate change, pushing global temperatures into uncharted territory.
He urged preparedness, as this would have far-reaching effects on health, food security, water management, and the environment.