A new study shows that doomsday economists are incorrect to attribute Britain’s tense trade ties with the EU on Brexit.
After learning that exports to the EU fell by 12.0%, or £20.3 billion, in 2021 compared to 2019, economists at the Office for Budget Responsibility dubbed post-Brexit Britain a “less trade dependent economy” earlier this year.
The results, according to a number of pundits including Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, showed that leaving the EU had a negative impact on the British economy.
However, a groundbreaking analysis by the Centre for Brexit Policy contends that there are several unconnected factors, such as domestic problems like Covid-19, contributing to the perception of market collapse.
The research tank’s paper, which The Mail on Sunday has received, also issues a caution to skeptics, urging them not to “cry wolf.”
Many of these causes [of the drop in trade] are related to variables that are either transitory, precede Brexit, or are independent of it, according to the academics.
They cited decreased oil shipments to the EU as one factor in the £20.3 billion decline in trade with the EU.
The declines in energy exports in 2021 are owing to historically low production from the UK oil sector, they said, pointing out that this was a local problem that had been developing even before Brexit. And since 2014, there has been a sharp decline in investment in the North Sea, which is the main cause of this output decline.
The findings, according to a number of pundits including Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (pictured), showed that leaving the EU had a negative impact on the British economy.
According to a groundbreaking analysis by the Centre for Brexit Policy, domestic problems and COVID-19 are only two of the many unconnected causes for the market’s apparent fall.
The think tank offered reassurance to Britons, saying that the value of energy exports was expected to increase this year due to rising prices. This is a little consolation for people dealing with high winter utility costs.
It also said that worries expressed about a 26% decline in auto exports to the EU could not be attributed to Brexit since research reveals a comparable £4.6 billion decline in non-EU exports.
The sector with the largest percentage decrease in exports was the garment industry, which had a startling decline of 58.8%, or £3.1 billion, from the previous year.
The research issues a warning, saying “UK administrations will fail to address major long-term negative trends in UK trade by naively attributing reductions in exports to Brexit.”
Trading specialist Philip Radford, the report’s primary author, said last night: “Brexit has been used as a scapegoat for too long when things aren’t going well.”
Not only is it inaccurate, but it might significantly jeopardize the UK’s future prosperity to carelessly ignore the drop in commerce between the UK and the EU as a consequence of Brexit.