The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has clarified if tropical storm Cheneso constitutes a threat to South African coastlines.
Cheneso has rotated aimlessly in the eastern Mozambique Channel off the west coast of Madagascar for the majority of this week, with no overall system movement.
Cheneso was positioned at 21.0 South and 42.0 East at 02:00 and was slowly travelling south-west at 9 kilometers per hour.
It was estimated to have had a mean pressure of 982 hPa.
Today, January 28, the most recent Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and guidance from Reunion Island’s Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) predict that “Cheneso” will continue to travel slowly to the southwest.
It has sustained winds of 89 to 118 km/h that are predicted to be highly destructive.
In the vicinity of the “Cheneso” system, seas of 4-6 meters are anticipated.
The system is anticipated to temporarily strengthen into a Tropical Cyclone with sustained winds between 118 and 166 kilometers per hour.
The system should maintain a clearly defined “eye.”
Given the existing recommendations for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, the SWAS is certain that this system will not have a direct influence on South Africa.
There is a great degree of assurance that Cheneso’s orbit will not differ considerably from what is currently projected.
On Sunday, January 29 and Monday, January 30, it will commence a generally faster south-easterly path.
A so-called “poleward and acceleration track” is anticipated, which will allow the system to transition into the extratropical waters of the southern Indian Ocean.
The SAWS is still monitoring tropical storm Cheneso.
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