As Beijing heightens tensions over Nancy Pelosi’s visit, China will surround Taiwan and effectively blockade the island with massive military exercises, posing the greatest threat to its independence in decades.
Live-fire drills in and around the Taiwan Strait began on Tuesday and will continue through today as part of six days of military training as authoritarian China tries to intimidate its democratic neighbour and persuade the US to stop supporting the self-governing island.
Then, starting on Thursday and lasting until Sunday, four more days of drills will be conducted in six different places across the nation, three of which would enter its territorial seas, in what Taipei has dubbed a grave violation of international standards.
Experts say Beijing is practising its ability to cut off the island from the outside world in the event of a war by imposing what amounts to a blockade on shipping and air traffic in those areas.
Pelosi, who on Tuesday visited Taiwan for the first time as a senior politician since 1997, when China last ratcheted up tensions, refused to back down, adamantly informing Beijing that Washington “will not abandon its commitment” to Taipei.
During a meeting with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, she made a brief speech in which she stated that “today the world faces a choice between democracy and autocracy.”
In Taiwan and elsewhere, “America’s desire to safeguard democracy remains unbreakable.”
Beijing sees Taiwan as a breakaway province that it has sworn to “reunify,” whereas Taiwan sees itself as a sovereign state that exists independently of mainland China.
The Nationalist Party’s remnants, which fought China’s Communist Party after World War II but lost the conflict, are still present on the island.
When the United States established diplomatic ties with Beijing in 1979, it also recognised that Taiwan is a part of the “one China” and that the Communists are the country’s legitimate leaders.
But soon after, Congress passed a law requiring the US to arm Taiwan with weapons so that it can defend itself in the event of an attack.
Since then, there has been a tenuous cease-fire throughout the island, but tensions have risen ever since President Xi Jinping declared in 2019 that he reserves the right to use force to “reunify” Taiwan if it is deemed necessary.
Due to Pelosi’s visit, Chinese military drills have increased tensions past the level seen during the most recent Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996.
That time, China conducted military exercises in the strait as well, though they were much farther from the island than those scheduled for this week.
No drills were conducted in 1996 that went outside Taiwan’s territorial waters or on the island’s eastern side.
This time, three of the planned zones would encroach into Taiwan’s territorial waters, and three others would be located to the east of the island, effectively cutting Taiwan off from the Pacific.
Officials from Taiwan claimed that the live fire drills are against United Nations regulations, breach Taiwan’s territorial space, and directly interfere with unrestricted air and sea travel.
The Navy, Air Force, Rocket Force, Strategic Support Force, and Joint Logistics Support Force participated in a multi-force exercise on Wednesday in the air and on the sea to the north, southwest, and southeast of Taiwan, according to China’s Eastern Theatre Command.
Military drills in China included seal-and-control, sea assaults, and land strikes.
It is yet unknown, according to analysts contacted by Reuters, whether China will launch cruise or ballistic missiles over the island or make a first attempt at a blockade.
According to Song Zhongping, a military analyst stationed in Hong Kong, it appeared the People’s Liberation Army wanted to practise blockading the island in case it was need to do so in a future conflict.
To put it simply, “the purpose of these drills is to prepare for the armed conflict with Taiwan.”
The announcement of the drills with a locating map distributed by the official Xinhua news agency was unusual, and some analysts and scholars believe this demonstrates the desire to appeal to both domestic and international audiences.
According to a Taiwanese official aware with China’s security preparations, “We can see China’s ambition: to declare the Taiwan Strait non-international waters, as well as making the entire area west of the first island chain its sphere of influence.”
The official warned that if China obtained what it wanted, it would have “fatal consequences for the safety and stability of regional countries as well as for the regional economy.”
Collin Koh, a security expert based in Singapore, claimed that China was caught between needing to respond forcefully and comprehensively while averting a full-blown confrontation as a result of Pelosi’s visit.
Even if they try to prevent it, Koh of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies remarked, “There are still substantial chances for an unintentional escalation.”
Chinese-produced exercise maps demonstrate that they go well beyond the missile launches that occurred in the Taiwan Strait in 1996 as part of Beijing’s protests against the island’s first direct presidential election, which later led to the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis.
Significantly, the proposed practise areas split Taiwan’s claimed 12 nautical mile territorial waters in the north, east, and south. Taiwanese officials allege that this violates international law and amounts to a blockade of their country’s sea and airspace.
In order to successfully resolve the situation, the United States navy sent two aircraft carriers close to the Taiwan Straits in 1996. However, given China’s military development since then, notably its greatly improved missile arsenal, many observers believe that this manoeuvre is more difficult today.
The USS Ronald Reagan carrier and four other warships, including a guided missile cruiser, were deployed by the 7th Fleet in the Philippine Sea east of Taiwan as part of a “routine deployment,” a U.S. Navy official confirmed to Reuters on Tuesday.
Questions from Reuters regarding the Chinese drills on Wednesday were not immediately answered by the Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii.
Advanced U.S. and Taiwanese reconnaissance aircraft, according to Koh, would use the drills as a chance to eavesdrop on Chinese military communications and systems, potentially increasing risks if Chinese aircraft retaliated.