According to scientists, there is a one in six possibility that the planet could see a catastrophic volcanic eruption this century that would drastically alter the climate and endanger the lives of millions of people.
When the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano erupted off the coast of Tonga in the South Pacific Ocean in January, the blow was so powerful that tsunamis struck the coastlines of Japan, North America, and South America. Tonga also sustained damage equal to about a fifth of its total GDP.
However, a study at the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen discovered that a magnitude 7 volcanic explosion, which may be 10 to 100 times higher than the one recorded in January, is a strong probability for this century after analysing ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica.
Past eruptions of this scale have resulted in dramatic climatic change and the demise of whole civilizations.
However, one of the top volcanologists in the UK today issued a dire warning that the world is badly equipped for such an occurrence.
There is no coordinated effort or significant expenditure being made to lessen the worldwide impacts of large-magnitude eruptions, according to Michael Cassidy, associate professor of volcanology at the University of Birmingham.
“This must change,” you say.
Cassidy said that hundreds of billions of dollars are spent on NASA and other organisations’ “planetary defence” preparations, or efforts to stop an asteroid or other cosmic projectile from colliding with the earth.
However, there is no worldwide effort devoted to preventing the destruction that may accompany a significant volcanic eruption, which is hundreds of times more likely to happen than comet and asteroid impacts combined.
Millions of people suffered the consequences of the last magnitude 7 eruption, which killed more than 100,000 people in a couple of days at Tambora, Indonesia, in 1815.
The volcano sent such massive amounts of ash into the atmosphere that 1815 earned the nickname “year without a summer” due to a one-degree reduction in the planet’s average temperature.
In addition to severe agricultural failures in China, Europe, and North America, this bad impact on the planet’s climate also led cholera to spread across India, Russia, and many other Asian countries due to heavy rains and floods.
A comparable eruption, according to Cassidy, might now kill countless people and halt global commerce routes, leading to huge price increases and shortages on the other side of the planet in today’s far more densely populated and linked world.
The professor pleaded with national and international governments to expand financing for disaster preparedness and monitoring of possible eruption hazards, especially as the possibility of large-scale eruptions rises in conjunction with increasing sea levels and ice cap melting.
Seismometers have only recorded 27% of volcanic eruptions since 1950, according to Cassidy, who also suggested that there may be hundreds or thousands of dormant volcanoes whose sites are unknown.
Cassidy added, “In our opinion, the lack of investment, preparation, and resources to deal with major eruptions is dangerous.”
“Discussions must begin right now.”