Due to an unusual weather trend developing in the Indian Ocean, millions of Australians could expect months of rainy and chilly weather, as well as flooding.
Strong westerly winds at sea caused by a ‘negative Indian Ocean Dipole’ will bring above-average rainfall to eastern Australia for at least four months starting in July.
Much of eastern Australia is up to four times more likely than usual to see significant rainfall from July to September, putting 2022 in the top 20% of wettest years ever recorded.
After a few weeks of sunny, dry days, Sydney is getting a taste of the gloomy weather to come, with rain expected to arrive on Sunday.
On Saturday, there’s a 70% probability of rain in Sydney, and an 80% chance on Sunday, when heavy morning showers are expected.
From the beginning of July through at least the end of October, the Bureau of Meteorology anticipates an 80% likelihood of exceeding median rainfall across much of the east coast.
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) happens every three to five years and lasts until the conclusion of the spring season.
Warm water is concentrated off the coast of north-west WA and south of Indonesia in the negative IOD due to strong westerly winds.
Clouds follow the warmer seas eastward, creating meteorological patterns that will ‘ultimately deliver rain to Australia.’
According to the forecasting bureau, wetter, colder weather will be present across New South Wales, Queensland, the Northern Territory, the Australian Capital Territory, and northern Victoria until at least the end of October.
The similar phenomena will make it cooler in New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory, and southern Queensland.
However, portions of Victoria, Tasmania, north Queensland, and the Northern Territory will see milder temperatures.
Another peculiar aspect of the occurrence is that minimum temperatures “are expected to be higher than median across much of Australia except central Western Australia.”
A ‘weakening La Nia’ and warmer-than-normal waters over northern Australia, according to the agency, are impacting this prognosis.
However, research outside the agency predicts that La Nia will persist until next summer, resulting in a repetition of the devastating floods that hit the east coast between February and April.
The changes that are making wetter, colder weather more probable for Australia are already happening, according to the chief researcher on a major project on ocean currents influenced by global warming, who told Daily Mail Australia.
Dr. Matthew England stated that recent research from climate modeling centers throughout the world suggested that an exceedingly uncommon ‘triple La Nia’ was likely to occur again in the summer of 2022-23.
La Nia weather occurrences can continue up to two years, although three years is extremely unusual, with the most recent one happening 20 years ago.
Dr. England believes that the dreaded La Nina weather trends will not only become more common, but also more severe.
‘They don’t always get it right, but their early projections imply this La Nia isn’t going anywhere [and will be here] throughout summer,’ Dr England told the Daily Mail Australia.
Mike McPhaden, a senior research scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States, echoed the prediction.
Maximum temperatures in July and September are expected to be above median in the northern, coastal south-western, and extreme south-eastern areas of Australia, but below median in the rest of the country.