This week, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida travels to Washington for a potentially crucial conference with President Joe Biden – especially on China, which Tokyo now publicly acknowledges as its primary threat.
In recent weeks, Kishida declared a “historical turning point” in Tokyo’s security policy, pledging to double the country’s defense budget over the next five years to 2% of gross domestic product, the NATO target level, making Japan’s military the third-largest in the world after those of the United States and China.
Biden’s preoccupation with climate-change negotiations has stalled U.S. strategic planning in response to Beijing’s threat. Thankfully, our allies have advanced without us.
Prior to his arrival, Kishida will sign a historic agreement with the United Kingdom that provides for the reciprocal in-country treatment of each other’s servicemembers, thereby facilitating cooperative military exercises and training. This new Japan-UK pact, while not as far-reaching as Tokyo’s fundamental 1951 status-of-forces agreement with the United States, is an essential step in constructing Indo-Pacific collective-defense systems.
In addition, prompted by Russia’s unwarranted action against Ukraine and its repercussions for Asia, Japan is demonstrating a newfound willingness to extend its influence beyond its immediate neighborhood by supplying Ukraine with unprecedented assistance, including non-lethal military equipment.
These Japanese activities mirror the British assistance to Ukraine. Since February 24, successive British governments have regularly outpaced the Biden administration in terms of their political and military backing for Kiev. And in Asia, the United Kingdom played a pivotal role in developing the trilateral “AUKUS” relationship with the United States to develop and construct nuclear-powered submarines for the Australian navy.
Not everything is well, however, in the global West’s response to Beijing’s threat, as evidenced by the persisting, unsettling absence of American leadership. Germany, for instance, contrasts sharply with Japan and the United Kingdom. Despite Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s declaration of a “sea change” in German security policy days after Moscow’s attack on Ukraine, Berlin is failing to reach key objectives, such as increasing defense outlays to 2% of GDP this year and spending €100 billion ($106 billion) on defense assets, including 30 nuclear-capable F-35s.
At the Kishida-Biden conference, parts of a new grand strategy to fight China and its developing alliance with Russia should be formulated; however, this is unlikely to occur. Japan’s historic budget increases, its outreach to Europe, and its comprehension of the China-Russia threat stand in stark contrast to the Biden administration’s general timidity.
Kishida should advocate for significantly increased activity by the Asian “Quad” (India, Japan, Australia, and the United States), which Vice President Biden commendably supports, and continue to move its members towards concrete cooperative action. Enhancing Japan’s naval capability with nuclear-powered submarines, in a manner similar to AUKUS, might be extremely advantageous in East Asia.
As both Republicans and Democrats fear, Biden should demonstrate how his defense budgets will assist revitalize America’s military-industrial base, lest even wonderful concepts like AUKUS compromise our defensive capabilities.
Biden and Kishida should suggest that South Korea become a full member of the Quad (thus establishing a “Quint”), which is quite reasonable given the threats posed by North Korea and China. In fact, on the first day of the new year, Kim Jong Un ordered “an exponential increase in the country’s nuclear arsenal,” including tactical nuclear weapons to be used against the South, which also threaten Japan and American-deployed soldiers.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was mulling calls to reinstall US nuclear weapons on the peninsula or create Seoul’s own nuclear weapons prior to Kim’s recent threat
A lengthy and convoluted history between Japan and South Korea has impeded broad trilateral collaboration with Washington. This past cannot be ignored, but Biden should make every effort to create closer collective defense alignments between Tokyo and Seoul.
The security of Taiwan, which has broad bipartisan support, should also be a primary priority for Kishida and Biden. Beijing’s hostility toward Taipei continues to grow, including numerous incursions by Chinese military aircraft into Taiwanese airspace.
Slowly but surely, the world is seeing the need to resist Chinese aggression. Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen’s recent visit to Taipei, where he called to “further strengthen the bonds between Taiwan and Europe,” is a significant indication of the island nation’s rising support. Closer coordination between Japan, the United States, other Asian partners, and NATO members should be a top goal.
Even Biden officials acknowledge that China’s recent conduct has become increasingly aggressive. This week’s summit between Kishida and Biden is the ideal venue for demonstrating sustained allied cooperation against China’s unacceptable behavior and rallying others in Asia and Europe against its growing menace.
John Bolton was President Donald Trump’s national security adviser in 2018-19 and US ambassador to the United Nations in 2005-06.
»This week is crucial for Biden to move on the Chinese threat«