Due to enlisted grade restructuring, a leveling off of end-strength growth, and good retention levels, the Air Force anticipates lower promotion rates over the next few years.
Grades E-5 through E-7 will be affected by changes to the structural and end-strength criteria.
The Air Force hopes to balance and boost experience in its non-commissioned officer tier through this realignment.
Lt. Gen. Caroline Miller, deputy chief of staff for Manpower, Personnel, and Services, stated, “We appreciate the experience Airmen bring to their work centers and we want to ensure we are aligning our enlisted force grade structure appropriately.”
“While this news may be disheartening to some, it is unquestionably necessary and permits us to expand the Air Force our country needs.”
The analysis of historical data in the evaluation also supported the worries of various career field managers over the decline in experience levels among their Airmen.
The majority of the experience decline was caused by the Air Force trying to achieve an enlisted force structure with too many higher grades, according to Col. James Barger, commander of the Air Force Manpower Analysis Agency.
“While a small part of the decline can be explained by the elimination of time-in-grade and time-in-service points from enlisted promotion considerations,” he added.
We also discovered that the experience levels will keep decreasing until the Air Force allocated more younger Airmen and less E5-E7. We thus developed a strategy to implement a healthier grade distribution by the fiscal year 2025.
Enlisted end-strength increased by almost 16,000 from 2015 to 2021, and since additional promotable quotas were made available to Airmen during this expansion, promotion rates during this time period were higher.
The higher promotion potential is no longer available as the end-strength growth has stopped, and it will be even more limited as strengths decline by 3,000 in FY23 from their peak in March 2022.
Additionally, because of the enlisted force’s record-high retention rates, fewer Airmen are now eligible for promotions as they leave the service or retire.
Increased promotion opportunities may be anticipated over the coming years as retention rates are likely to return to normal.
The updated grade structure distribution is crucial for consolidating and expanding on the knowledge obtained and data gathered from the Enlisted Evaluation System’s most recent updates.
The Air Force introduced the Promotion Recommendation Score for the FY22 promotion cycles, which gives weight to Airmen’s experience and consistently exceptional performance when it comes to promotions.
The objective is to give an additional year of experience at the E-5 and E-6 grades by slowing the rate at which the typical Airman gets promoted.
Airman Leadership Qualities, which emphasize competency-based development and set the groundwork for “Developing the Airmen We Need” for both officers and enlisted personnel, were launched by the Air Force last year.
The recently announced “Blueprint: Roadmap to Enlisted Development” also heavily relies on the ALQs. Beginning this fall, ALQ-based evaluations will give the Air Force a way to quantify what it values in terms of leadership development and potential conflicts.
Miller continued, “We must make sure members are ready to both take care of their Airmen and are experts in their core jobs.
As we continue to enhance and revise our enlisted evaluation system and grade distribution.
“Our enlisted force must be ready and organized to be able to complete both of those crucial missions,” the general said.