Two powerful members of Boris Johnson’s Cabinet and a number of other members of his Government’s lower ranks have left him teetering on the precipice.
A steady stream of Conservative MPs are also abandoning their allegiance to the prime minister and urging a new vote of no confidence in his leadership.
With the support of 211 MPs, Mr. Johnson was able to survive a similar vote exactly one month prior.
In contrast, 148 MPs voted to remove the PM from Number 10 by voting against him.
Due to party regulations, Mr. Johnson was given a 12-month period of immunity following his victory.
It implies that a number of obstacles stand in the way of rebel Tory MPs’ latest attempts to remove the PM from office.
The main goal for rebellious MPs is to secure a majority on the influential 1922 Committee of the Conservative Party.
The 1922 executive will be elected next week, and the race for the top positions is likely to pit Tory rebels against PM stalwarts.
In order to take control of the crucial Committee overseeing Tory leadership elections, both parties will be vying for more than half of the 18 executive slots.
However, there are rumblings that this step in the rebels’ plan may not even be required given how quickly the tide is changing against Mr. Johnson.
At a meeting scheduled for today at 5 p.m., the current 1922 leadership may opt to alter the rules without waiting for elections next week.
As a result, the PM might face a new no confidence vote as early as next week.
Step two is to violate Conservative Party laws.
If the rebels are successful in taking over the executive of 1922, or if the present executive decides to act before the elections next week, they will be able to change the current regulations that protect Mr. Johnson from further no confidence votes for a year.
Either way, the threshold for a new no confidence vote would still need to be met by 15 percent of Tory MPs (54 of them), which would need a letter to the 1922 chair. The other option is to simply eliminate the immunity provision.
Or, as has been suggested, they might raise it to 25% of Tory MPs (90 of them), or perhaps even a greater percentage, in order to trigger another no confidence vote.
This would provide future Tory leaders with greater security from recurrent no-confidence votes while also demonstrating that a new vote was being taken under different conditions than the one held last month.
Step 3: Push through a fresh vote of no confidence.
If the dissident MPs do decide to abolish the current procedures for no-confidence votes, they will be eager to convene one before Parliament’s summer break starts on July 21.
If, as anticipated, Mr. Johnson lost a new vote of no confidence, his resignation as Conservative leader would be immediate.
In order to select his successor, the Tories would then have the summer to stage a leadership election that included a vote among the party’s members.
Then, before the Conservative Party conference in October, a new leader might be appointed.
However, in an effort to maintain his position of authority, the PM may think about taking dramatic measures by seeking to move up the summer break.
This would shorten the rebels’ already limited window for holding a vote of no confidence before MPs leave Westminster until September.
There’s a chance that the rebellious MPs won’t even need to call another no confidence vote.
The 1922 Committee chair, Sir Graham Brady, was the one who forced Theresa May to resign by merely threatening her with a second no confidence vote after she had survived a first one.
Rebel MPs would increase their pressure on Cabinet ministers to remove the PM if they were unable to modify the rules to allow for another no confidence vote.
Numerous others have already called senior government officials to inform Mr. Johnson that the game is over.
Additionally, there would be minimal chance of the prime minister retaining his position should the majority of his Cabinet decide against him, and he would be obliged to step down.
However, the fact that Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid’s resignation from the Cabinet last night was not followed by other high-level departures will give Mr. Johnson and his Number 10 staff encouragement.
In order to overcome his current difficulties, he will be relying on the support of his surviving Cabinet allies. He will also be working to win back the support of Tory MPs.