Brexit supporters and unionists warned Rishi Sunak of a mutiny as he approached a pivotal weekend to overcome the post-Brexit impasse.
The Prime Minister will go to Germany for a security meeting tomorrow after spending the day in negotiations with Northern Ireland’s political leaders. There, he expects to seal an agreement with EU leaders.
He downplayed the likelihood of a quick resolution today, saying there was still “more work to do” to come to an understanding.
He made his remarks during meetings with DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald, and vice president Michelle O’Neill with Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris.
The DUP said that it will not budge on the “seven conditions” that must be met before the party would back a post-Brexit agreement. No further inspections of products traveling between Northern Ireland and Great Britain is one of them.
It’s not an issue of us caving, according to Sir Jeffrey, since our seven criteria “reflect the prior promises that we have been made by the UK Government.” The UK government must honor the promises it has made to the people of Northern Ireland, follow through on those promises, and provide the framework necessary to maintain and safeguard Northern Ireland’s position within the UK’s internal market.
In the event that their demands are not met, the party has threatened that it would not resume power-sharing with Sinn Fein.
They are dubious that the details haven’t been presented clearly yet and have doubts that [the pact] will be effective, according to a source close to the DUP. It seems that some of their hopes for this project will be significantly disappointed.
David Jones, a former minister and vice-chairman of the European Research Group, said he did not think Mr. Sunak’s proposal would satisfy the DUP’s requirements.
He further said that if the agreement was put to a vote in the Commons, “more than 40” Conservative MPs may revolt. As a result, Mr. Sunak could have to depend on Labour Lawmakers to pass it. Northern Ireland must stop being governed by legislation created in Brussels, Mr. Jones said. That’s all there is to it.
Baroness Frost, the man in charge of negotiating the UK’s exit from the EU, said they were “still waiting” to see whether an agreement could be struck. Yet he said that for the agreement to “command wide support,” the Northern Ireland Protocol must be changed.
We clearly need to wait to view the whole text before making any final judgments, he said. Unionists disagree with the quantity of inspections made on products coming into Ulster from the British Isles as part of the first post-Brexit business agreements. Also, they are against the European Court of Justice continuing to decide trade issues in Ulster.
The DUP may still find the number of checks in Mr. Sunak’s latest proposed accord to be too intrusive, however. It is also believed that European judges will play a part in the agreement.
The Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, acknowledged that negotiations were “not there yet” but expressed his “quiet confidence” that an agreement could be reached in the next two weeks.
“I believe there has been a lot of development,” he told reporters in Limerick. While we haven’t reached that point yet, there is unquestionably a high level of confidence between the British government, Ireland, and the European Commission.
I think there is a chance to reach a deal soon—possibly in a week. We’re getting there, even if it’s not finalized and we haven’t all read the wording yet. I have a sneaking suspicion that we may be able to approve an agreement in the next week or two.
Before meeting with ambassadors in Brussels, Maros Sefcovic, the EU’s enforcer for Brexit, had conversations with James Cleverly, the UK’s foreign secretary.
Top EU sources said that Mr. Sefcovic’s meeting lasted about 30 minutes and was more of an update than a thorough debrief.
Mr. Sefcovic declined to comment on whether an agreement will be revealed in the next days or weeks, according to the officials present, but added that “everyone should be prepared for something soon.”
Any deal with the European Court of Justice, he said, would be “within the EU’s red lines and with no surprises,” implying that it would still play a role.
Sefcovic’s main issue is whether Sunak can “sell” the arrangement, according to a senior diplomat. Until the big woman sings, it isn’t over.
Another EU ambassador said that when it came to the Prime Minister persuading staunch Euroskeptics and the DUP, Eurocrats had “poor hopes.”
A roadblock in Brussels is preventing an agreement.
James Franey’s analysis from Brussels
As it neared a critical phase, Downing Street was holding the new Brexit accord close to its breast. At briefings in Belfast and Brussels, neither Stormont representatives nor EU ambassadors were given access to the draft deal’s text.
Yet according to officials, Rishi Sunak and Ursula von der Leyen still had some disagreements to work out during their scheduled negotiations in Munich. Many important topics will be discussed, including:
Compliance with EU laws:
Whatever the Prime Minister says the following week, Northern Ireland will still be subject to EU regulations.
Due to the substantial commerce with the Republic, according to Brussels, Northern Irish businesses must adhere to its laws.
According to Eurocrats, Northern Ireland merchants may only freely sell into the EU single market provided EU regulations continue to be in force there. Local leaders, however, are unable to change such laws.
easing product inspections
Brussels argued that the single market of the union would be in jeopardy and demanded that all products moving over the Irish Sea be subject to the same customs inspections.
Yet, British negotiators were able to pressure them into compromising and accepting their design for red and green customs lanes.
A data-sharing agreement between the two parties has already been reached, giving the EU access to customs data and further lowering the need for inspections. Officers would retain the authority to scrutinize suspicious cargo, but goods coming from trustworthy merchants would enter via a green lane without frequent physical inspections.
Products intended for sale in the Republic of Ireland would have to go through customs procedures at ports in Northern Ireland.
Even the most recent agreement, according to unionist MPs, treats Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the UK.
»Negotiations on the Northern Ireland protocol are approaching completion in the UK«