A significant step toward moving the country toward an all-electric future and lowering air pollution is California’s plan to phase out sales of new gasoline-powered automobiles in just over ten years.
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) on Thursday authorised ambitious sales goals for electric vehicles, as well as new requirements for the range of EVs and financial incentives for automakers to offer them at lower prices.
According to auto industry and environmental experts, the plan represents a seismic shift for the state with the greatest population and the largest market for new cars in the country.
According to Brian Maass, president of the California New Car Dealers Association, “this is the most important transition since we switched from horses to vehicles 125 years ago.”
Here’s why the new regulations have the potential to transform the auto industry, accelerate America’s transition to electric vehicles, and aid in the fight against global warming.
By 2035, no new gas vehicles will be marketed, but they are not banned.
The regulations increased the already quick adoption of EVs in California by setting challenging goals for automakers.
35% of new vehicles sold in the state after the model year 2026 must be electric.
According to the California New Car Dealers Association, electric vehicles made up 15% of all new cars sold in California during the first half of this year, which is more than quadruple the current penetration rate.
By 2035, the state will mandate that 100% of all vehicles be electric.
Plug-in hybrids, which run on both gas and batteries, are allowed to make up one-fifth of these vehicles.
Additionally, used cars are not impacted by the regulations, thus sales of gas-powered cars will continue.
addressing the primary cause of climate pollution
In California, where the state is disproportionately feeling the consequences of climate change through an increase in wildfires, heat waves, and drought, reducing car emissions directly combats the main contributor to the problem.
According to David Reichmuth, senior engineer in the clean transportation programme of the Union of Concerned Scientists, “in the U.S., transportation is the largest single source of global warming pollution, and in California, the bulk of those emissions originate from passenger vehicles and trucks.”
“Therefore, we must target passenger automobiles and trucks if we hope to try and reduce climate change,”
According to California authorities, these standards will reduce approximately 60 million tonnes of greenhouse gases and particulate matter per year, which are responsible for asthma and other health issues.
According to CARB, less pollution will result in 1,200 fewer deaths per year from heart or lung issues.
a challenging deadline
For automakers, which during the pandemic struggled to produce enough vehicles — of any type — to fulfil consumer demand, the rapidity of the changeover could be a hurdle.
According to Jessica Caldwell, senior director of insights at Edmunds, “Right now we’re dealing with a supply deficit in the automobile industry, and if that continues it may actually be challenging for automakers to meet their targets, and not through any fault of their own or even the consumer demand.”
Infrastructure also poses a problem. California plans to have 250,000 charging stations by 2025, but as of right present, it only has roughly 80,000.
Automakers highlighted concerns about the aggressive timetable for promoting EV sales, citing the slow progress of the charging infrastructure and high material prices.
According to Maas of the dealers’ organisation, “most automakers are committed to a zero-emissions future; the only question is how quickly they can achieve it.”
The question of whether buyers are willing to purchase these vehicles as quickly as CARB wants to mandate them is the actual one, and it is one that is currently unanswerable.
Coming soon: more inexpensive electric automobiles
In the short term, Californians’ car purchases are probably going to get more expensive thanks to the new regulations, but in the long run, zero-emissions cars are probably going to get less expensive.
Today’s typical EV costs over $60,000, or $12,000 more than the average car that runs on gasoline.
“These standards will cost money to add in the foreseeable future. Although [consumers] would save money on gas and maintenance, the initial expenses will be substantial “Josh Linn, senior fellow at the nonprofit Resources for the Future and professor of agricultural and resource economics at the University of Maryland, made this statement.
Linn and other industry professionals pointed out that as battery costs continue to decline and automakers produce more EVs, they will experience economies of scale and be able to pass those savings along to drivers.
According to Kathy Harris, a clean cars and fuels advocate with the Natural Resources Defense Council, “one thing we’ve seen time and time again is that firms, as they start to develop new goods, the cost of each of those new units reduces drastically.”
“Over a ten-year period, solar panel costs decreased by 90%. We expect see the price of EVs decline as more manufacturers produce more of them.”
Incentives to build vehicles priced at $20,300 or less, chances to invest in car-sharing schemes, and credits for heavily discounted secondhand cars sold to low-income individuals are just a few of the ways the regulations encourage automakers to lower the cost of electric automobiles.
Impact is probably going to spread well beyond California
In terms of emissions regulations, California sets the norm. A third of the U.S. car market, or more than a dozen states, abide by its air quality regulations.
Other states have established their own zero-emission vehicle targets, including Colorado, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, and Washington.
Automakers have also made significant investments in EV production, spending more than $80 billion to create new eco-friendly automobiles in the upcoming years.
The nation’s adoption of EVs is anticipated to increase as a result of this investment and historic federal support provided by the Inflation Reduction Act.
According to Linn of the University of Maryland, “many corporations are putting a lot of money behind what they are saying – production facilities, research, and development.”
“Certain objectives are set by automakers. They’re genuinely committing to moving away from fuel and toward electricity.”
Each of these measures makes it simpler to advance, he continued.