Rishi Sunak is decisively in charge of the Tory leadership race after three vote rounds.
When the 27 Brexit “Spartan” Suella Braverman fans chose a new team yesterday, the former chancellor was not expected to do well.
In their campaigns to unseat Penny Mordaunt, Liz Truss has been supported by the European Research Group, a group of Eurosceptic Tory MPs, as well as Mrs. Braverman. But it never materialised.
Instead, Mr. Sunak came out on top last night, racking up an additional 14 votes while his rivals fought for the leftovers.
When the votes of Tory moderate Tom Tugendhat are redistributed in the fourth ballot today, barring catastrophe, he will unquestionably secure his position in the final two.
Mr. Sunak might have a sizable lead by tomorrow morning, allowing him to covertly “lend” votes to the candidate he wants to face in the final run-off.
It is difficult to prove the dishonest strategy. However, Tory MPs think it was used to give Theresa May and Boris Johnson a free pass.
In each instance, Team Sunak member and former chief whip Sir Gavin Williamson oversaw their campaigns.
According to recent events, Mr. Sunak would presumably prefer to take on Miss Mordaunt, whose campaign appears to be in a deadlock.
Despite still holding onto second place, she undoubtedly appears to be the one that needs help the most.
The vote today maybe Miss Mordaunt’s last opportunity to restore the incredible momentum that briefly made her the favourite to become the future prime minister of Britain last week.
Due of her swift ascent, she was awkwardly questioned throughout the weekend over statements and actions she made regarding everything from trans rights to Brexit.
She struggled to get off the ground during the weekend debates and is now in risk of crashing.
Miss Mordaunt didn’t anticipate receiving much of Mrs. Braverman’s backing.
At this point in the race, when momentum is crucial, to see her own support decline – even by only one vote – is a devastating blow.
Today, the trade minister will try to win over enough followers of Mr. Tugendhat to put herself out of reach.
She runs the possibility of being eliminated by Miss Truss in tomorrow’s final ballot if she fails.
The risk is that more MPs may start to defect as they realise her campaign has run into a brick block.
She has not yet recovered, though. Miss Truss will also be disappointed with the outcome, despite having gained some ground on her main challenger.
Secretly, her team had been optimistic that she could close the gap with Miss Mordaunt to just a few points or maybe pass her. They ultimately finish in third place, 11 votes back.
The Tory Right was meant to unite on this day in support of Miss Truss.
The Foreign Secretary did not perform particularly well in the weekend TV debates, but she also did not make any mistakes.
Lord Frost and others have made strong appeals for party unity on the Right, but no one has listened. And the clock is ticking.
Due to the ongoing splits, outsider Kemi Badenoch still has a chance to make it to the top two, since there are currently only 24 votes separating her from second place.
Compared to Miss Truss, she received more votes from the Braverman camp, and she seems to be in a better position to win over Mr. Tugendhat’s supporters.
Despite receiving praise from all corners of the party for her straightforward approach, Mrs. Badenoch still has a lot of work to do.
If she fails today, she and her able supporter Michael Gove might end up becoming the kingmakers. Despite being on the Right of the party, she has come off as Mr. Sunak’s more loyal ally than Miss Truss.
It is not certain that she or her supporters will choose to support the Foreign Secretary, even if she goes out tonight. It’s possible that the Right will always be divided.
Even if Mr. Sunak is nearly invisible, there is still much at stake in the race for second.
After Mr. Sunak and Miss Truss blocked a scheduled televised discussion on Sky TV tonight, the decisive vote-counting will take place behind closed doors at Westminster.
It is not ideal for public scrutiny that they withdrew.
But Westminster is stressed out—hot, annoyed, exhausted, and getting more acrimonious—and not in the ideal mood for an informed debate, much less a civil one.
Sir Gavin, Mr. Gove, and other key actors in the backstage may be preparing to make their pivotal moves away from the cameras, in the shadowy areas of Westminster.