According to the most recent UN estimates, the population of the globe could increase to over 8.5 billion people in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, and then peak at about 10.4 billion during the 2080s.
Up until 2100, the population is anticipated to stay at that level.
slowest rate of growth since the 1950s
The annual report, however, which was released on Monday to coincide with World Population Day, also indicates that the rate of population growth worldwide is slowing down and will reach less than 1% in 2020.
According to the report, fertility has decreased significantly in recent decades for many countries. Currently, two-thirds of the world’s population reside in regions or countries where lifetime fertility is below 2.1 births per woman, or roughly the level needed for long-term population growth to be zero and low mortality.
A persistent low rate of fertility and, in certain cases, high rates of emigration are predicted to result in population declines of at least 1% in 61 countries or regions over the next 30 years.
Population change has been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Global life expectancy at birth decreased to 71 years in 2021 (from 72.9 years in 2019), and in some nations, the pandemic’s repeated waves may have temporarily reduced the number of births and pregnancies.
According to John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, “Further initiatives by Governments aimed at reducing fertility would have little impact on the speed of population growth between now and mid-century” (DESA).
“However, if maintained over several decades, the cumulative effect of decreased fertility could entail a more significant reduction of global population increase in the second half of the century.”
Eight countries saw the most growth.
Eight nations—the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and the United Republic of Tanzania—will account for more than half of the expected growth in the world’s population by 2050.
More than half of the increase forecast through 2050 is anticipated to come from sub-Saharan African nations.
UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Liu Zhenmin issued a warning that the spread of health and education systems, the eradication of poverty, and the fight against hunger and malnutrition are all made more challenging by rapid population increase.
There is a demographic dividend.
The majority of sub-Saharan African nations, as well as some regions of Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean, have experienced a “demographic dividend” as a result of recent fertility declines.
This increase in the proportion of the working age population (ages 25 to 64) presents an opportunity for accelerated economic growth per capita.
According to the report, in order to take full advantage of this opportunity, nations should invest in the further development of their human capital by ensuring that all people have access to quality healthcare and education, as well as by encouraging opportunities for gainful employment and decent work.
In particular, achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals in the areas of health, education, and gender equality will help to lower fertility rates and limit the rate of population expansion worldwide.
more senior citizens are surviving longer
By 2050, there will likely be a significant increase in the number of people with grey hair, as the number of people 65 and older is predicted to more than double that of people under the age of five and be roughly equal to that of people under the age of 12.
It is anticipated that further mortality declines will lead to an average worldwide lifetime of roughly 77.2 years in 2050.
But in 2021, the least developed nations’ life expectancy lagged seven years behind the average worldwide.
The paper makes recommendations for countries with aging populations, including implementing universal health care and long-term care systems, as well as strengthening the sustainability of social security and pension systems, to adjust governmental programs to the rising number of older people.
In response to the report’s results, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, “This year’s World Population Day falls during a milestone year, when we expect the birth of the Earth’s eighth billionth resident.”
This is a time to celebrate our differences, acknowledge our shared humanity, and be in awe of medical advances that have substantially lowered mother and infant mortality rates and prolonged lifespans.
“At the same time, it is an opportunity to reflect on where we still fall short of our obligations to one another and a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our world.”