Those planning street parties in southern England for the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee festivities this weekend have been advised to prepare contingency plans in case of rain.
Meteorologists are watching a plume of warm air developing over the continent, which could ‘glance the far South East on Saturday and Sunday, bringing with it the danger of some showers,’ according to the Met Office.
With 200,000 street parties planned for the Big Jubilee Lunch on Sunday, more than 12 million people across the United Kingdom will be hoping for good weather as they commemorate Her Majesty’s seven-decade reign.
And conditions are likely to be fine for most of the UK with bright and sunny weather – but forecasters said those planning outdoor gatherings in the South should start ‘considering what your options might be’ if it does rain.
The weather is expected to be good in much of Britain for the bank holiday days of Thursday and Friday with highs of 22C (72F) and both days mainly dry and bright with long spells of sunshine albeit with some patchy cloud cover.
Settled weather is on the cards for most parts of the UK on Saturday and Sunday with sunny spells – but the South East could see heavy showers, depending on how the plume of warm air develops to the south of the country.
Speaking about the forecast for Sunday, Met Office spokesman Ollie Claydon told MailOnline: ‘It’s really confined to the real South of England that could see showers. But actually for a large proportion of the UK, Sunday is looking like a good day, especially the North of England, Scotland and Northern Ireland with bright conditions.
‘It’s just the South of England that’s looking at a chance of showers coming up. The uncertainty is how a plume of warm air interacts with the conditions.
‘That’s what could bring the showers over the South of England on Sunday, that’s what causing this uncertainty this far ahead. For a good proportion of the UK, Sunday’s looking OK – so it’s really just that southern bit.
‘If you were to draw a line south of the M4. that’s giving an indication. The thing to cover at the moment is that uncertainty, because if that warm plume doesn’t come up and get to the south coast more favourable conditions will come through.
‘But it’s worth highlighting that the risk – if it does make that move up to the South of the UK – is there for Sunday and obviously with street parties being outside, it’s worth considering what your options might be if that scenario does come out, and it’s important to keep an eye on the forecast with that uncertainty as things might become more favourable.’
The Met Office said a cool and unsettled start to the week is set to make way for a largely dry latter half, with the possibility of isolated showers for some areas.
Today will see a mixture of cloud, sunny spells and showers around the UK, with most areas expected to see rain at times – and the most persistent downpours set to fall over Northern Ireland.
However some of the better weather today will be over parts of Wales and West and South West England where showers should fade, leaving fine weather for the afternoon.
Tomorrow will see unsettled weather continue, with early rain in the West before showers fall more widely later on along with a risk of hail and thunder in central and south-eastern areas. Temperatures will probably peak at about 20C (68F) in the South
Conditions will be far more settled from Thursday, with good spells of dry and fine weather for most areas, especially in the South.
A low pressure system will introduce some showers to north-western areas, especially Northern Ireland and western Scotland, but forecasters said there is uncertainty around exact locations and timings.
They added that central and northern areas look likely to see some showers on Friday, while areas further south should get the best of any sunshine, with temperatures probably peaking at 22C (72F) in the South East.
Settled weather is expected for most areas on Saturday and Sunday, but that is when the risk of rain for the South East arrives – although it depends on how the plume of warm air develops.
Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist Helen Caughey said: ‘While it may be an unsettled start for some with showers for northern and western areas, many areas will see generally settled conditions over much of the long Jubilee Weekend, with plenty of dry weather and good spells of sunshine.
‘Temperatures will be widely into the low 20s, feeling warmer in the sunshine, although temperatures will drop off quickly into the evenings.
The main source of any uncertainty for the weekend itself is to do with how far a plume of warm air to the south encroaches over southern areas of the UK.
‘At present it’s looking like it could glance the far South East on Saturday and Sunday, which would bring with it the risk of some showers, although the heaviest showers look likely to be contained over the continent.’
There is also no sign in the forecast that the UK’s hottest day of the year so far will be beaten over the coming fortnight, with the current 2022 record being May 17 when London Heathrow Airport got up to 27.5C (81.5F).
Meanwhile the British Beer & Pub Association predicts more than 90million pints will be sold across the four days, which it said will be a £150million boost to the industry and £29million payment to the Treasury in VAT and duty.
