“Begin your preparations,” they advise. “Do what got you here,” is a common phrase. “Don’t overthink things” is wise counsel.
By “they” we mean “us,” as these are tropes/rules/habits to which the Madman frequently adheres and advises routinely. And it makes sense, because they are typically the intelligent course of action.
Studs are typically superior players, and superior players are typically superior players. The biggest predictor of future performance is past performance, thus those who brought you to this point provide you the best opportunity to continue. Overthinking these ideas frequently necessitates guesswork or intuition, which are less reliable than just following the evidence.
So why is the Madman contemplating benching Nick Chubb during the week before the fantasy championship? Over the course of the full season, Chubb is the seventh-best running back. That is a hottie. He contributes 16.5 PPR per week, thus he is one of those who helped you get here. Then why do we overthink it?
We are merely examining the data. When a season begins, we make predictions for the remainder of the season using data from previous years. As the season advances, the facts become increasingly drawn from the current year, while the amount of remaining games causes our predictions to become gradually more precise. As the number of remaining games decreases, we focus more on data from the most recent games and less on the entire season.
In short, recent performance is more essential than season-long performance at this point in the year. The fact that Chubb is the seventh-ranked running back in PPR leagues is therefore less significant than the reality that he has been the twenty-third-ranked running back over the past six weeks for the majority of fantasy teams entering championship week.
That is correct. Since Week 11, he is averaging just 11.2 per week in PPR. That’s not very good. But it gets worse. This rating and average includes a Week 12 performance against the Buccaneers in which he scored 20.2 points. In the last five games, Chubb has averaged just 9.4 points per game on average.
But it gets worse. Only twice has he scored in double figures: during the Bucs’ breakout and last week against the Saints (11.2 points). In four of his last six games, he was unable to score 10 points.
But it gets worse. His fantasy team is comparable to Tyler Allgeier, Brian Robinson, Chuba Hubbard, Zonovan Knight, and James Cooks in this range. Not all of these players are horrible, however. As observed, they are all capable of posting respectable fantasy weeks. However, they are not reliable. This is the realm Chubb has recently occupied.
In Week 17, he opposes the Commanders. Washington allows only 87.3% of the league average to opposition running backs. Therefore, if Chubb only produces 87.3% of his recent output, his PPR is 9.8.
That is not overthinking; it is merely a mathematical conclusion. And those statistics are not desirable for a championship lineup.
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