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In the midterm elections held last month, more young voters supported Democrats than Republicans. However, a new survey indicates that excitement for the party among this crucial demographic may be waning.
53% of voters under 30 supported Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives, while 41% supported Republican candidates, according to the Associated Press.
Nevertheless, the AP VoteCast research indicates that Democratic support has decreased by 11 percentage points since the 2018 midterm elections, when the same group gave Democrats a 64 to 34% advantage over Republicans.
Voters under 30 years old supported Joe Biden over Donald Trump by a margin of 61% to 36% in the 2020 election.
While Democrats avoided what many predicted would be a historic drubbing in the midterm elections — barely losing their majority in the House while retaining control of the Senate — analysis suggests that cracks may be forming in the party’s ability to hold together the diverse coalition at the core of its electoral support.
On November 8, a woman goes to vote in Brooklyn.
According to the analysis, declining support among any segment of this voting bloc — which includes young voters, blacks, college graduates, urbanites, and suburbanites — might portend trouble for the 2024 presidential race.
Biden, age 80, has declared his intention to compete for re-election, while Trump, age 76, revealed on November 15 that he will make a second run for the White House.
Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida and an expert on voting and data, told the Associated Press, “young voter turnout may have declined.”
McDonald cautioned against reading too much into the data, but he speculated that the decline may be a result of inflation hitting younger voters whose earnings are less likely to keep pace with inflation.
“Young individuals have the weakest partisan attachments, making them more susceptible to national partisan swings,” he said. There is no reason why the Republican Party cannot recover with younger voters.
AP VoteCast indicates that only about a quarter of Democrats under 30 consider party membership “very” or “very” vital, compared to approximately a third of older Democrats.
At the same time, support for Democrats among midterm voters under 45 topped what Biden garnered in 2020 in some crucial races.
In his victory over Dr. Mehmet Oz in the Pennsylvania Senate election, Democrat John Fetterman received 62% of the vote from those aged 18 to 44, beating Joe Biden’s 56% in 2020.
In his victory over Doug Mastriano in the commonwealth, Democrat Josh Shapiro received 64% of this group’s vote.
In Kansas, Democratic Governor Laura Kelly was re-elected and outperformed Biden among younger voters by a margin of 52% to 45%.
And in 2020, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer received 61% of the vote among individuals under 45 compared to Biden’s 54%.
Nonetheless, Democratic candidates in 45 major races identified by the AP performed worse than Biden among voters under 45.
For instance, Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak fell seven points shy of Joe Biden’s 2020 projections among Silver State voters (54% to 61%), losing his reelection bid to Republican Joe Lombardo.
And in New Hampshire, Democrat Tom Sherman received 43% of the vote from voters under 45 in his loss to incumbent Republican Governor Chris Sununu. In contrast, Biden won 59% of voters under 45 in the Granite State in 2020.
»Midterms weakened young voters’ support for Democrats, data finds«