Australians looking to change careers or find new employment may not have much time left to explore all of their options before opportunities run out.
According to ANZ’s monthly job ad series, there were 1.1% fewer vacancies offered in July.
This happened despite the fact that the jobless rate in June reached a 48-year low of 3.5%.
The monthly decline in job postings may be an indication that we have passed the top, according to ANZ Senior Economist Catherine Birch.
The peak is taking place despite ANZ’s prediction that the unemployment rate will reach its lowest level since 1974—just 2.9%—by the March quarter of the following year.
In March, there were 242,068 job postings, a 14-year high, on sites like Seek and Jobsearch run by the federal government.
Australians looking to change careers or find a new job may not have as much time left to consider all of their options. According to ANZ’s monthly job ad series, there were 1.1% fewer vacancies offered in July (pictured is a stock image)
Even though there are fewer jobs available, Ms. Birch predicted that the unemployment rate would decrease as well since it would take time for the impacts of increasing inflation and rising interest rates, which will lead to less consumer spending and firm closures, to manifest.
It will take time for the gap between labour demand and supply to close enough to put upward pressure on unemployment, she added, as increasing inflation and rising rates restrain demand growth.
Following the reopening of Australia’s border in late last year, competition from overseas job seekers is also gradually returning, lowering the negotiating strength and employment options of local workers.
According to Ms. Birch, “newly arrived skilled migrants, temporary visa holders, students, and travellers are adding to the supply of employees, but also to the existing robust demand.”
Therefore, even though the resumption of migration enhances labour mobility and matching, it does not necessarily guarantee that the gap will close rapidly.
31% of the firms questioned by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in June reported having trouble hiring qualified employees.
In contrast to the 174,500 persons who lost their last job, separate official data from March showed that, in February, 175,300 people who were classed as unemployed stated they quit their last job voluntarily to try something else, including starting a business.
However, with interest rates rising in response to the fastest-growing inflation in two decades, which rose by 6.1% in the year to June, it is likely that consumer spending will fall and there will be more unemployment in 2023.
The Federal Treasury expects the unemployment rate to be 3.75 percent in 2022–2023 and 4 percent in 2023–2024.
In line with a Treasury projection released last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia has upgraded its predictions for inflation to reach a 32-year high of 7.75 percent by the end of this year.
Inflation is anticipated to remain over the Reserve Bank’s goal range of two to three percent until 2024, according to both the Treasury and the RBA.
The RBA increased the cash rate by 0.5 percentage points more in August, bringing it to a six-year high of 1.85 percent.
Borrowers have experienced 1.75 percentage points of rises since May, which is the most since 1994.
The most recent increase was the fourth consecutive monthly rise in a row.
All of the major banks anticipate another rate increase of 50 basis points in September, with ANZ predicting a 10-year high cash rate of 3.35 percent by November.